Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Three
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Way Too Early Game
Baltimore at Jacksonville in London
Lost a little bit in Javorius Allen’s breakout performance last week was that Alex Collins looked solid and deserving of more touches in the run game. I typically watch these London games, and they are generally ugly, sloppy football. With two solid defenses involved, that means I’m looking for some interesting nuggets in the run game. With the rest of the “running” running backs banged up, I want to see if Collins deserves to have a dynasty value again.
On the flip side, I want to see what Leonard Fournette can do in what should be a game that his team leans on him. As mentioned for the Ravens, I expect this game to be sloppy and rely on running as a means of moving the ball. I really don’t think that Fournette has room to move down as a result of this game, but if he can put his team on his back and carry them to a victory against a stout defense like Baltimore’s, then he suddenly seems like a safer player at his value and may move up.
Early Games
Atlanta at Detroit
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So far this season, Matt Ryan hasn’t really shown me that he can still be an elite quarterback. Going back to the Super Bowl where they lost a massive lead, I just don’t see the tenacity and aggressiveness that I want out of a quarterback with the weapons that Ryan has at his disposal. This game sets up nicely for a shootout and I would love to see Ryan justify his continued value at the quarterback position.
Lions tight end Eric Ebron is coming off of a solid performance against the Giants and gets a layup of a matchup with the Falcons this week. In what is projected to be one of the highest scoring matchups of this weekend, what we want to see is Ebron continue to get a nice slice of the Lions offensive pie. His value has room to move up with continued success and he is starting to look the part.
Denver at Buffalo
Broncos running back CJ Anderson is looking like he has been a steal all off-season after this start to his year. On the road in Buffalo, I want to see if he can keep playing at this level. As projected favorites, I am planning on CJA being once again called upon to take part in clock grinding activities along with Jamaal Charles. If he keeps getting this workload, we have to adjust our valuation of Anderson.
For the Bills, no one will fault them if they get smashed against the tough Broncos defense in this game. Having said that, LeSean McCoy was a superstar in week one and disappeared in week two. Which Shady do we get in week three? At his age, he needs to be that guy from week one either all of the time, or at least have a useable floor to his production if we want to keep valuing him so highly.
New Orleans at Carolina
Through two weeks in the post Brandin-Cooks era in New Orleans, uber stud Michael Thomas has managed just 134 scoreless yards on ten receptions. While that isn’t awful, it isn’t what you paid for, either. Considering Thomas’ dynasty value, he needs to move beyond his floor sometime soon before he starts sliding down the value boards. Part of his value is tied to Drew Brees’ remaining years – so not producing highly while Drew is still around makes for a giant red flag.
Last week I played the part of Christian McCaffrey fanboy, so I’ll look elsewhere this week despite CMC’s nice outlook for this game. I’ll go a little deeper down the value charts to pick out Devin Funchess, who has been playing tons of snaps this year and quietly has six receptions for 88 yards. Without Greg Olsen, lost due to injury, I want to see Funchess step up to the plate and grab some of those targets. He is still young given his experience, and his ceiling is pretty high if he can put together a floor.
Pittsburgh at Chicago
I did a quick name search in a PPR league for “Bell” to see how many points Le’Veon Bell has scored so far this season since he hasn’t been a big factor yet. Turns out, he is only outscoring some dude named Josh Bellamy by a few points through two weeks. That seems pretty telling to me. Chicago has gobbled up top receivers and kept them to low scoring, so Antonio Brown might not get his usual haul of targets. Until Bell shows me he deserves his current value I’ll keep writing him up.
Every week Jordan Howard continues to not impress, his value wains. Tarik Cohen has taken over the passing role, and this team might not be good enough to have the volume needed to sustain a running role and a passing role for running backs. Unless Mitchell Trubisky comes in and suddenly turns this offense around at some point, I don’t see this team improving on offense this year or possibly for the next few years. Howard needs to impress to maintain value.
Cleveland at Indianapolis
So now that Corey Coleman has broken his hand again, who gets those targets? Plenty of options exist, but Twitter was alight with praise for Rashard Higgins who you may have seen go for an absurd amount of blind bid dollars in your leagues. For personal enjoyment, I dropped 100% of my budget on him just because. Let’s sit back and see what happens. His measurables are not that good but his college production was absurd.
In what might be a rare case early this season, the Colts look like they have a good chance at a victory this week. Cleveland gives up points at an alarming rate to tight ends, so Jack Doyle is my man here. If he can become a focal point for this offense early on, that should continue and his ceiling gets much nicer with Andrew Luck returning at some point down the road.
Houston at New England
To date, Deshaun Watson has looked serviceable at best as an NFL quarterback to my relatively untrained eye (I’m a numbers and narrative guy). This weekend he gets the honor of going up against a tough Patriots team on the road that hasn’t quite been itself on defense this year. Despite that, if Watson can go into Foxboro as a rookie and do some damage, it will speak volumes about his potential.
The Patriots have seemingly lost all of their players to injury, yet Brandin Cooks hasn’t broken out as a Patriot. For comparison’s sake, Sammy Watkins just broke out as a Ram after less time with the team. Let that sink in for a few. Cooks needs to produce even against a tough defense here to justify his value. So far I’m just not feeling it from Cooks on the Pats, but I’m willing to ride it out a while longer as they tend to spread the ball around.
Miami at New York Jets
The Dolphins are all banged up this week, so I’ll write up Jarvis Landry who may end up being the safest pick of the bunch. He won’t light the world on fire with his target depth, but 13 receptions in a single week is a little bit insane. At that volume I don’t care if they are two yard catches or not. Landry has the look of someone who continues to be undervalued by many (myself included) but is definitely a dude who will score fantasy points. For week three, we just want to see if he stays this involved with Jay Cutler at the helm, or if week two was an outlier.
Fresh off of suspension, Austin Seferian-Jenkins looks to be back in the mix and it isn’t too soon by a long shot. This team has been pretty awful and non-competitive, to the shock of no one, but we had at least expected some solid play from guys like Matt Forte. Another decent weapon on the field can only help everyone, and given the barren receiver landscape ASJ could carve out a healthy role sooner than later.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Remember earlier when I wrote about Chicago putting the clamps down on opposing top receivers? Yeah, well, so do the Vikings. Except – and here’s the thing – Mike Evans just trounced the Bears and goes up against the Vikings this week. Last week I wrote that Evans would need to prove his value to justify it. Well, he did that. Now he has a chance to prove he is truly plug and play and valued appropriately moving forward.
Will Sam Bradford play or won’t he? This team is different without him on the field, and week one to week two looked like a tale of two Dalvin Cooks. I’ll be looking for Cook to rebound in a home game where his team is favored, hopefully with Bradford back under center and keeping teams honest with his relentless targets to Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. If Bradford can’t go, I want to see him put this team on his back and prove he can be elite.
New York Giants at Philadelphia
Our man Evan Engram is stealing the show for the Giants so far, looking like the most impressive player on offense. The Eagles are stout against opposing tight ends, so something has to give. Either Engram remains this involved and productive, or the Eagles shut him down a little. To be clear, if the Eagles shut him down his value shouldn’t change at all – this pick is all about upside. If he produces as a rookie tight end in a tough spot like this, his value is too low.
Sticking with the tight end position, I’m all aboard the Zach Ertz train. The Giants just surrendered a solid performance to Eric Ebron, and he hadn’t even been producing well before that. Ertz, on the other hand, has been destroying opposing defenses dating back to last season, and it doesn’t look like that will be changing this week. As long as Ertz looks like a featured player on his offense, he deserves to keep moving up in value.
Late Games
Seattle at Tennessee
Last weekend, Jimmy Graham was in a premium position to blow up and he managed to post a catch for a single yard. Color me not impressed. Whether this speaks more to the Seahawks offensive struggles or to Graham’s role in that offense, I am unsure. What I do know is that a downgrade like this to both the Seattle offense and Graham’s role in that offense is somewhat alarming. We’re looking at a smaller slice of a smaller pie. I want my super size back.
What’s that? DeMarco Murray is injured? Drafted highly and touted as the next great thing at running back a few years back, Derrick Henry has looked impressive in limited action thus far in his career. The Seattle defense is no joke, but in a game where the Titans are projected to win and Henry might be getting a bellcow workload, this is his chance to really show what he can do. If he bombs, he could drop in value from this game alone.
Cincinnati at Green Bay
This is more of a reaction to last week than looking forward to this week, but how about rookie Bengal wide receiver John Ross? He fumbled on his first touch and wasn’t seen afterwards on the field. This seems reminiscent of David Wilson a few years back with the Giants, and he never recovered in terms of playing time. If coach Marvin Lewis keeps Ross on the bench for this game, he is probably making a mistake. At any rate, keeping Ross in the doghouse prevents him from developing as a player, and the longer it continues the more it should impact his value.
Another case where I’m going back to the well, but Ty Montgomery looks like a stud in terms of usage and ability. His role in all game situations guarantees his floor and offers opportunity for his ceiling in any week. Against a struggling Bengals team, if the Packers are willing to give TyMont clock grinding work I am completely sold and will move him up my value rankings.
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers
That whooshing sound you might be hearing is Kansas City running back Kareem Hunt screaming up the dynasty value rankings. Through two weeks, that is certainly deserved. What happens if he has a bad week? I’m not sure. He hasn’t had one yet. But, let’s keep watching and see if he can sustain this. As question marks surround pretty much every other top running back, sustained excellence can only bolster his position. A bad game or two could give us pause.
Keenan Allen is quickly re-establishing himself as one of quarterback Philip Rivers’ favorite targets. The Chiefs are giving up big plays in chunks this year, and what I’d like to see is whether Keenan is playing the role of possession receiver exclusively, or if Rivers is willing to go for splash plays to him. I think Allen’s value is safe as he has a healthy floor as long as he himself is healthy. The question really comes down to his ceiling and whether it exists to justify a value increase moving forward.
Sunday Night
Oakland at Washington
In week one, Amari Cooper committed a ton of ugly drops in the end zone. In week two, Michael Crabtree went gangbusters. I’m guessing that opposing teams may start to roll coverage to Crabtree, at the delight of Amari lovers everywhere. Not that his value has much room to go up, but I think Cooper can gain some of that stickiness I’ve been talking about in recent weeks with a rebound.
This game has a massive over/under, so Vegas is expecting a shootout. I could keep writing about Terrelle Pryor but you know the drill. I’ll turn my attention to the premium athlete for the Redskins in Jordan Reed. Among tight ends, he is well reputed to have the best point per game fantasy output over the past few years. This is the type of game where we want to see his ceiling to justify his value given his known downsides and checkered injury history. Can he hit his ceiling where he needs to?
Monday Night
Dallas at Arizona
For a player that has taken some flak over the past season or two, Dez Bryant is still getting a lot of looks from Dak Prescott. Against a leaky Arizona secondary, I’m willing to bet they find more production than they did the past two weeks against the stout Giants and Broncos defenses. At some point, Bryant should regress towards the mean for production on the kind of volume distribution he is getting. I believe he has room to move up in value.
This probably isn’t fair because he likely isn’t even going to play, but John Brown needs to find a way to deal with his sickle cell trait issues and stay healthy enough to play in football games. Again, that isn’t a fair criticism against him as a person – but that isn’t what this is. This is simply an indictment of his dynasty fantasy football value, and not playing games is the ultimate floor. His ceiling is sky high, but his floor makes him one of the most volatile players in fantasy football. This team is not the same without him, and it brings down the dynasty value of all Cardinals. Get well, Smokey!
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
