Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Two
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Arizona at Indianapolis
Last week, Carson Palmer’s play was in the tank and David Johnson suffered a major injury. This week, John Brown has already been ruled out with more pesky soft tissue injuries. Larry Fitzgerald isn’t getting any younger, and all of his dynasty value is tied to current production. Last week he had 13 targets and did okay with them, but didn’t explode with fantasy points. With even fewer mouths to feed, can he do more with his certain-to-rise target share?
Similarly, Frank Gore really needs to be putting up fantasy points to justify his current value and solidify it moving forward. With Marlon Mack emerging last week in a massively negative game script, can Gore get going in what may be a more competitive game? Does the addition of Jacoby Brissett bridge the gap between actually being an NFL team now and Andrew Luck’s eventual return?
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Cleveland at Baltimore
Last week, I took the stand that Corey Coleman has talent and opportunity and needs to take advantage. I would have liked more yards and targets, but I certainly won’t complain about 53 yards and a touchdown on five receptions when he only garnered six targets. That is the kind of performance that should build confidence with his young quarterback DeShone Kizer. Now I think Coleman has justified his current value, but has room to move up. Can he keep rolling?
Javorius “Buck” Allen has had his dynasty value in the gutter the past year or so, but with the injury to Danny Woodhead he may be seeing a resurgence. Of course, the Ravens signed Alex Collins so Allen will need to produce to hold him off. So, that’s the question against what appears to be a stout Cleveland run defense that held Le’Veon Bell in check. If Baltimore can’t get the rushing game going, they should move to short passing and that is where Allen should shine. If he can’t, consider him toast. Potentially flex-worthy, a bit too dry toast.
Buffalo at Carolina
Guys, a tight end had a 33% target share in week one. For reference, a 25% target share is pretty good for a top wide receiver and 20% is a great number for a tight end. 33% means my mind is blown. I can’t begin to express to you how insane that is. Charles Clay may not always see this heavy of a workload, but until he doesn’t his dynasty and fantasy values are too low. Opportunity has a strong correlation with fantasy points, and current production is often weighted too low in dynasty fantasy football valuations in my opinion. Clay is the confluence of these two trends and if he continues to garner even a 20%+ target share in week two, he is undervalued.
The Panthers also had an unlikely hero lead the team in targets in week one. Christian McCaffrey had seven targets to Kelvin Benjamin’s five. This off-season, football and fantasy analysts have posited that perhaps the Panthers would move from an outside and rushing based attack to a more balanced attack exploiting the short to intermediate passing game with their additions in this year’s draft. If week one is any indication, that’s 100% accurate and CMC is going to be a huge beneficiary that may deserve a higher value if this usage is consistent.
Chicago at Tampa Bay
Everyone and their twice removed third cousin has already written about Tarik Cohen, and I really tried to convince myself to write about someone else. Then I took a look at the rest of my selections for this week and Cohen falls right in line for many of the same reasons. The Bears’ passing attack appears to run through Cohen first and the tight ends second. His value rise over the past week has been meteoric, but there is room for that to continue if he keeps up this torrid pace. He had 12 (12!!) targets in week one. He is a running back. What a time to be alive.
No week one info exists for Tampa since they didn’t play last week, but several good options exist. I’ll turn my eye to Mike Evans who came in at number two in DLF’s September ADP data and is going up against a Bears defense that held Julio Jones to four catches in week one. At Evans’ value, expectation is a matchup proof stud that has a high weekly floor. While I absolutely love Evans, we need to see him justify this draft position in order for him not to be a sell. His dynasty value pretty literally can’t get higher for his career.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Welcome to the NFL, Corey Davis! Viewed as the top dynasty player in the 2017 class at various points over the past year, he fell off recently with the surge of production in the pre-season and week one of the regular season. Juxtapose that value slide with his week one performance, coming off of an injury to lead the team in targets and post some ridiculous catches and you can see that if Davis continues at this pace, his value is too low. Mariota is an ascending talent at quarterback and forming a strong bond with Davis will only mean good things for his value going forward.
In week one, the Jaguars lost top wide receiver Allen Robinson to injury for the year. I had already written that I was looking for Marqise Lee in their game, and he did tie for team lead in targets (nailed it!) with a paltry four (…or not.) However, after a week without Robinson in the game plan, I am going back to the well and planning to watch for Lee’s role again this week. He has a real chance to be this team’s top wideout in 2017 and beyond.
Philadelphia at Kansas City
After a mind boggling target distribution in week one for the Eagles, I honestly can’t make sense of who to value in what roles moving forward on this offense. Instead, I’ll take it as a sign that Carson Wentz is developing as a passer and learning to spread the ball around rather than hone in on any one target too much. Against a Kansas City defense that held Tom Brady’s fantasy output in check in week one, how will Wentz fare? There is room for growth here.
What a week one for the Chiefs! I had an all wrong take on Kareem Hunt, but his value is now in the stratosphere and isn’t likely to come down as the result of one additional game comes in. Instead, I’ll turn my eye to Travis Kelce, who was picked widely as the clear number two tight end this year. While he was involved, this offense ran directly through Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt in week one. Does Kelce bounce back to meaningful fantasy output after a lackluster week one despite his seven targets?
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
The Vikings are another team with multiple players ascending, which makes them a tough team to pick just one guy from this week. For me, the guy to watch is Stefon Diggs who may be the next player to move up into round one or two of startups and ADP data after a few more good weeks. He looked like a young Antonio Brown to me out there last week, and Sam Bradford is developing a strong rapport with him. Pittsburgh doesn’t have world beaters in the secondary, so I’m looking for a repeat strong performance to justify his continued value increases.
This off-season there were two clear top options at running back towards the end with David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. Johnson is now likely done for the fantasy season, and Bell stunk up the joint in week one after holding out through training camp. The Browns may be a surging run defense, but the Vikings aren’t any easier of a matchup. To justify his value, Bell needs to be matchup proof. Two poor outings in a row will drop him in value relative to the surging rookie class of running backs. As an added note, if Baltimore (read: Terrance West) can run on Cleveland, that is also an indictment of Bell after his struggles.
New England at New Orleans
The Patriots are losing Danny Amendola for this week, which may give Chris Hogan an opportunity to absorb some of his targets and carve out a bigger role for himself moving forward. The Saints defense doesn’t look like it will be stopping anyone this year, and the Patriots stand to be the next beneficiary. This could be a big opportunity for Hogan and blowing up should move the needle on his value. Of course, if he doesn’t get involved then his value should probably drop a bit because this is a gem of a matchup for him.
The Saints barely utilized Adrian Peterson in week one, and he didn’t get much done when he was utilized. Much like Larry Fitzgerald and Frank Gore above, Peterson needs to produce now in order to justify his continued dynasty fantasy football value. The game script figures to be similar to last week where the Saints need to put up points to keep up, and that game script favors Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. With the defense not likely to improve this season, we could be seeing Peterson’s full time role as extremely limited.
Late Games
Miami at Los Angeles Chargers
The other team without any week one data to go off of, the Dolphins are going up against a Chargers defense missing star cornerback Jason Verrett. After seeing the pre-season connection between Jay Cutler and DeVante Parker, I’m curious to see if that continues into the regular season. If Parker keeps it up, his value for 2017 should spike and that will have an impact on his longer term value even if Ryan Tannehill is back under center in 2018.
A 2016 and off-season riser, tight end Hunter Henry saw zero targets for zero catches in week one. Heavily out-snapped by perennial wonderkid Antonio Gates, Henry needs to, at the very least, be involved to justify his value at present. A timeshare at the position was expected for this year, but the expectation was that Gates would be slowly phased out in favor of Henry. Instead we saw a clear distinction between starter (Gates) and backup (Henry.) Unless he gets involved, he is moving down for me.
New York Jets at Oakland
On a tanking team devoid of healthy offensive talent, Jermaine Kearse blew up in week one with a solid stat line on nine targets. Given that his value was essentially zero a week ago, his continued involvement in this offense will see his dynasty value continuing to increase as he could be a cheap stop-gap option for a team needing points to contend in 2017. That is doubly important considering the Jets figure to be the underdog in most games and passing plenty in garbage time. This week against Oakland if he proves he deserves it, give him a big value bump.
Continuing my theme of old players need to produce now, Marshawn Lynch should be a big part of the Raiders offense in a game they project to be leading from the start. He needs to be the clock grinder, and involved on the goal line. If he can continue to produce points and be involved, he is deserving of his value and will be a likely centerpiece on many a championship team in 2017.
Dallas at Denver
The Cowboys stud running back Ezekiel Elliot suffered a value hit after his suspension, but it looks like he is in line to play all year and is somehow even more involved on offense for the team. Last year, Zeke got limited involvement in the passing game, but in week one he saw five targets. In a fantasy landscape suddenly lacking David Johnson and seeing Le’Veon Bell struggle, Zeke stands to ascend to the top of the running back rankings if he keeps this pace.
Raise your hand if you thought Jamaal Charles was going to be this involved so soon in the offense after what we saw this pre-season. Put it down, you dirty liar. I don’t know exactly what it means yet, but Charles was even involved in clock grinding mode last week, so they don’t view him as a big play spark plug. This could easily be an indictment of CJ Anderson more than an endorsement for Charles, but I’ll be watching to see if he deserves flex consideration moving forward. His value can only go up – I was offered a fourth round rookie pick for him this off-season and turned it down.
Washington at Los Angeles Rams
Hoo boy, was I wrong about Rob Kelley in week one. Instead, it looks like his involvement is not guaranteed despite his position on the depth chart. Now I’m looking at him again this week to see if he is needing to slide down in value. He was barely involved and the team is more likely to go with Chris Thompson more often than I previously thought.
I’m torn on the Rams. On one hand, the passing game looked legit behind Jared Goff last week. On the other hand, it was the Colts defense lacking some of their best playmakers. I think Sammy Watkins is a great player, but given his injury history and the question marks surrounding this Rams offense, I have a real hard time swallowing his value at number 19 in September ADP. He needs to be a bigger part of the offense, and the offense needs to continue to hum in order to justify this valuation.
San Francisco at Seattle
Last week I let you know about Marquise Goodwin’s involvement in the offense, and while that didn’t translate to production he was involved nonetheless. The surprise was George Kittle being equally involved in the offense with six targets in week one. If this is a trend and he begins converting opportunity into real fantasy production, his value has nowhere to head but up heading into 2018.
This off-season, Eddie Lacy again climbed in fantasy value after moving to Seattle as the presumed starter, but he put up a dud and looked awful against Green Bay. This game script looks to be heavily in favor of the Seahawks as they aim to right the ship against a weak 49ers team. This is a spot where Eddie Lacy should thrive. Put simply, if he doesn’t turn it around in this game, he will be dropping big time. If he does put up points, he won’t be going up in value; rather, he will be treading water after last week’s clunker.
Sunday Night
Green Bay at Atlanta
In week one, Ty Montgomery operated as a true bellcow and did well against a stout Seattle defense, including receiving four targets. This usage represents his ceiling if he can stay healthy, but it also figures to be consistent. Again, I view volume as king and if this is his involvement on the juggernaut that is the Packers offense, his value needs to move up. This game should be high scoring so getting a two week sample of his workload will be huge for assessing his true value.
On the opposite side, Green Bay mostly shut down Doug Baldwin in week one but has struggled mightily against Julio Jones in the past. Jones, coming off of a down week one, needs to bounce back here in a good spot. He was number seven in September ADP and, while I agree with that valuation, he needs to not have back to back bad weeks. If Jones has a clunker again, I’d be comfortable valuing Michael Thomas above him for dynasty purposes.
Monday Night
Detroit at New York Giants
Golden Tate has been nothing but consistent for years now, and he garnered 12 targets in week one. Sitting at an ADP of 57, his production continues to outpace his value. I am, and have been, of the mind that his value should be higher. He seems to always be undervalued relative to where he should be and this year looks no different. At least for me, if he continues to show this kind of involvement, his value continues to be higher than his ADP and general market value.
For the Giants, Brandon Marshall was an absolute afterthought on offense. It felt like his lone catch late in the game was put in place just to keep him from going off the rails after the game. Throw him in the category with Larry, Frank, Adrian, and Marshawn. Old players simply need to produce fantasy points in order to even hold steady in fantasy value. Watch for Marshall this week and see if he can get more involved. If he can’t, his week to week output is more volatile than we would like for his current value and he should move down.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
