Sunday Morning Huddle: Week One
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Writer’s Note: If you’ve enjoyed my writing in the past and wondered where I have been lately, the answer that my wife and I had our first child two days before the Super Bowl and took the off-season off from writing to focus on the transition from a two person to a three person family. It’s been exciting and challenging, but I am stoked to be back to bringing you insight on player values. Let’s get cracking!
Early Games
Arizona at Detroit
With Jaron Brown getting hype as the possible second wide receiver for the Cardinals this preseason and John Brown’s continued struggles to stay healthy, I want to see what kind of role Jaron has in week one. John is projected to be active and fill the second wide receiver role, but will he be on a snap count? What percent of those snaps will he share with Jaron? The point is – if Jaron Brown can push a “healthy” John Brown for snaps, then he is in line for a bigger 2017 role than we had anticipated and it is indicative of his future with the team whenever Larry Fitzgerald hangs up his cleats, although it’s safe to assume they will spend an early draft pick on the position as well.
Do you know where the tweet below indicates Marvin Jones is hanging out? If your answer was “Value Town,” good job! You’re a winner. Based on this target share and the projection for Golden Tate to move inside – which leaves the unlikely duo of TJ Jones and Kenny Golladay opposite Marvin – he stands to be a big part of this offense but that apparent reality is not baked into his current value. Watch this game to see how involved he is. If this preseason trend continues he is worth a few trade offers as a post hype sleeper.
Leaders in Target Market Share this preseason: pic.twitter.com/J7gN8pYHoL
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 30, 2017
Atlanta at Chicago
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Everyone already knows that Tevin Coleman is effectively in a timeshare with all-world running back Devonta Freeman, so that’s no surprise. What I want to see in this game where the game script should be all in Atlanta’s favor is in what situations Coleman gets his share of touches in a post Shanahan offense. If he is still involved early and often, rotating with Freeman, his value deserves to be where it is. If they ride Freeman and then plug Coleman in later in the game to grind the clock out, his value is probably a touch high. If that’s the case, I see his primary value being as a handcuff and he is overpriced for a handcuff.
There are tons of options for the Bears, but I’ll roll with Kendall Wright. He has been pegged by the dynasty community as someone who will benefit in the absence of Cameron Meredith this year. I neither agree nor disagree with that assertion, but his value has certainly seen a bit of a rise. We’ll find out with his usage whether he deserved a bump or not.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
I’ll put myself out on a limb here and go with Maxx Williams. He has been basically free lately, and he is the only Ravens tight end to make much of an impact this pre-season. I don’t see any other players that could really increase or decrease value all that much as a result of this game. The running backs and wide receivers are pretty locked into their roles and more or less valued appropriately, but if Maxx sees more playing time and target share than we expect and produces greater than zero results with them, his value is sure to increase.
The sexy pick for the Bengals has been Joe Mixon all off-season, but he’s likely to be in a timeshare and that’s not news. Instead, I’ll focus my attention on Tyler Boyd, who turned in a solid rookie season and hit a metric I like tapping into that indicates a player will have a solid career if they meet or exceed 50 receptions in their rookie year (he had 54.) If his role continues to grow, then I believe he has been undervalued this off-season and the market will correct itself. Keep an eye on how involved he is.
New York Jets at Buffalo
On a clearly tanking team, how much does Matt Forte get used? I’m blown away that they have kept him on the roster this long considering their obvious push for the top overall pick in 2018. Forte isn’t getting younger anytime soon, and if he isn’t playing now and producing then his value is too high.
Similar to the Jets in that they are pushing for a top pick in 2018, Zay Jones is suddenly the de facto number one wide receiver in Buffalo. On an offense devoid of depth and playing against a Jets team with a stout run defense, Zay may surprise and blow up this week as he won’t have to fight for targets. I don’t believe his value will sink much if he fails to capitalize since he is a rookie and his role won’t be changing, but keep an eye on the box score (read: I wouldn’t recommend actually watching this game) and see if he deserves a little value bump.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
After trading for Vance McDonald, it is fair to question whether that demonstrates that the Steelers will get him involved or not. They overpaid Ladarius Green and that never panned out, but the team at least demonstrated a commitment to try to get him the ball when he played. However, that was in the absence of Martavis Bryant, who is now back in town. There are only so many targets to go around, and with Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Martavis all figuring to be target monsters, I’ll be curious to see if McDonald gets involved and needs an increased value.
I’ll choose Corey Coleman for the Browns, based on two things: game script and talent. The Browns defense isn’t anything to write home about so I expect the Steelers to be up on points and throwing the ball. Coleman’s talent is still high and he figures to see a significant target share with no one of note this year at the tight end position (I love David Njoku long term, but not this year) and Kenny Britt as the other main receiving threat. Rookie starting quarterback DeShone Kizer has shown that he trusts in Coleman and will push the ball to him. Like Zay Jones, I think Coleman may blow up in this spot. Unlike Zay Jones, if he fails to blow up in this spot then I think it reduces his weekly projected ceiling a touch, and thus his value may drop a bit.
Jacksonville at Houston
Last year, Marqise Lee operated a bit more like the number one wide receiver than did actual number one wide receiver Allen Robinson. I want to see if Lee can continue that trend. My thoughts are that Lee is undervalued given his demonstrated and potentially projected role. I wouldn’t focus on production as much as I would focus on when, where, and how many targets Lee receives in relation to those that Robinson receives.
For the Texans, Braxton Miller is a man who I have my eyes on. Already projected as the slot wide receiver, his role theoretically expanded with the injury to Will Fuller. Of course, Jaelen Strong may end up being the beneficiary, but either way it will have an impact to Miller’s value. If he gobbles up more targets, he is undervalued and should move up. If he doesn’t and Strong sees an increase in usage, then the opposite is probably true unless the Texans suddenly utilize the slot quite a bit more.
Oakland at Tennessee
This game should be a shoot out. I view it as a battle between two great young quarterbacks with good and growing supporting casts on both offense and defense. As a result, I’ll forego my usual two paragraph format and just say that both Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota have a chance to solidify their fantasy value in this game. I don’t believe either can have their value move down as a result of this game, and it may not even move up much either. What I do believe is that player value can have a certain “stickiness” to it. For example, if Le’Veon Bell has one bad game, no one is moving the needle on his fantasy value because his value is pretty sticky and not volatile based on small sample performances. If either, or both, quarterback(s) blow up in this spot, I believe their value becomes more sticky. I’m rooting for a shootout, in which case both would gain some stickiness.
Philadelphia at Washington
For an Eagles team now lacking Jordan Matthews, I want to see if Zach Ertz lives up to both his potential and his hype. Late last season he looked like an absolute monster at the tight end position. If he can continue that, I think his value should either move up or gain some stickiness. This is another game that could turn into a shootout, and I’ll be looking at target share, catch rate, target depth, and where on the field those targets come for Ertz. Is he trusted in third down and goal to go situations with targets? Move him on up.
Last season I pounded the table for Jamison Crowder. I went so far as to recommend at the end of the season in this article that if either DeSean Jackson or Pierre Garcon were allowed to leave, it would be big for his value – but if both left it would be huge for his dynasty value. I just wanted to toot my own horn there. Good job, me. He isn’t my pick for this week, though. Rob Kelley is. He has gotten too much hate in the wake of the team drafting Samaje Perine. Perine looked bad this preseason and Kelley looked improved. Give me all of the Rob Kelley, and he begins to solidify that role and move up the value rankings this week.
Late Games
Indianapolis at Los Angeles Rams
Quite a few fantasy minds have indicated that TY Hilton will have, at the very least, a rocky start to this season. But what if he doesn’t? If he dominates even with sub-par quarterback play and demonstrates his viability regardless of surrounding talent, he should be valued as a transcendent (read: first round startup) value in dynasty. I’ll make the popcorn, you bring the brewskies. Let’s see how this shakes out together.
For the Rams, everything about this game lines up for Todd Gurley, who is coming off of a decidedly down 2016. The Colts defense is not good and they are missing some key contributors, and the heart of the Colts offense (Andrew Luck) will not be playing. If ever there is a game that the Rams are projected to dominate, this is it. That means Gurley should eat. If Gurley can’t eat here, get me off of the Gurley train as I would view this as a serious red flag.
Carolina at San Francisco
Who is Carolina’s number one running back? Is it Christian McCaffrey? Probably. Is it Jonathan Stewart? Most likely not. I will be curious to see how the game plays out as a lot of goal to go situations could favor Stewart, but big play favorability goes to CMC. Why am I writing about running backs when there are plenty of question marks at wide receiver? Because Scott Barrett came at us with another fire tweet.
RB Leaders in PPR Points per Game (W1-16, 2016)
1. David Johnson (26.8)
2. Le’Veon Bell (26.3)
3. RB1 vs. SF (24.0)
4. Zeke Elliott (21.6) pic.twitter.com/DYPQCXZaql— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 7, 2017
It seems like everyone has jumped on the Carlos Hyde train. I get it, but how often will game scripts favor the 49ers? I’ll take my chances on a cheap guy with upside and I have been gobbling up shares of Marquise Goodwin. If you will scroll on up and refer to the first embedded tweet from Scott Barrett, you’ll see that the Brian Hoyer to Goodwin connection squeezed onto the end of the list. That, my friends, is upside when Goodwin is also the team’s deep threat. At his current value, and with this type of usage, he projects to be moving up in value very soon.
Seattle at Green Bay
To end the year, Paul Richardson was an absolute beast. It sounds and looks like he is continuing that into 2017. Going up against a porous Green Bay secondary that Doug Baldwin failed to capitalize against in 2016, I’m looking elsewhere in the Seahawks receiving corps for a big game. This game should be fun for everyone to watch, so tune in and see what Paul does. I think his value has quite a bit of room to move up even though he is on virtually everyone’s radar at this point.
Another situation where everyone is already eyeballing Ty Montgomery, and I don’t care to write about it this week. I want to see what role Randall Cobb has. He is the forgotten man in a transcendent passing offense. Jordy Nelson is presumed to continue his tear through the league, but that is never a given for a wide receiver at his age. Davante Adams looked great last year but will it continue? Many are assuming a big role for Martellus Bennett, but when was the last time Green Bay had a tight end you actually wanted to start? All of these question marks mean I want to see what Cobb has in the tank and what that translates to on the field. At his cost, his value can move way up with an increased usage.
Sunday Night
New York Giants at Dallas
The Giants are pretty banged up at wide receiver with Odell Beckham Jr. being listed as questionable and Brandon Marshall coming off of a shoulder injury. Rookie tight ends generally struggle, but Evan Engram has had the look of someone with all of the tools and the Cowboys struggle to defend tight ends. If he can buck the rookie tight end trend and produce out of the gate here, his value will undoubtedly move up.
On the Cowboys side, I want to see how Dak Prescott does. The Giants are not an easy matchup for opposing signal callers, and quarterbacks routinely face a sophomore slump in the NFL after teams have an off-season to prepare using rookie film. Can he keep the Cowboys poised for another playoff run? Playing well in a tough matchup like this will go a long way to solidifying his value long term.
Monday Night
New Orleans at Minnesota
Willie Snead is out and Michael Thomas figures to face bracketed coverage against a tough Vikings secondary. Enter Coby Fleener, who did well in one game without Snead in 2016 and figures to be more comfortable in the Saints offense entering his second year on the team. I’m not saying he’ll light the world on fire, but his value is in the tank right now. Any sign of a pulse here is a boon to his value.
On the other side, Stefon Diggs has moved to the outside and is going up against a team that has trouble defending the pass. Diggs value has been pretty high already, but I’ve seen some bright fantasy minds indicating that this is the last buy window for him before his value skyrockets to the upper echelon. In a game against the Saints, he could well begin that value ascent. Will it happen or won’t it?
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver
All I’ve seen for years seemingly is how Keenan Allen is a great player but he’s injury prone and always banged up. Okay, fair, but most of those injuries are wholly unrelated and fluky. Tell me what a lacerated kidney has to do with a knee injury and I’ll buy you coffee and donuts. I’m willing to buy into him one last time since his value has dropped so far. He looks like a target monster and he looked extremely spry on the field this preseason. All it takes is one or two good games for someone like Allen to move back up the value board. People tend to forget their concerns when they see massive amounts of fantasy points being scored.
CJ Anderson perennially has talented running backs nipping at his heels, but somehow he keeps starting and playing fairly well through it all. Given that other backs keep getting chances, though, his leash is only so long. I want to see the involvement of other backs this week to gauge Anderson’s trajectory. If he has a stranglehold on touches in this backfield, he is probably undervalued. If other guys are getting tons of touches, especially in important situations, he is probably overvalued. Since this one is nationally televised, let’s watch together and see what happens.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
