Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three
The dark, barren football off-season is finally approaching an end. The light at the end of the tunnel is almost here. With the NFL draft in just a few days, all of our dynasty leagues are getting ready to kick into gear. I think the majority of rookie drafts will be held over the next month, which makes it time to really get to work in your rookie evaluations if you haven’t been doing so already. Don’t worry, we have been killing it here at DLF with articles on the top 50 rookies, strategy pieces and everything else!
I’m also back with another mock draft to help you get acquainted with this draft class. This will actually be one of two mock drafts you’ll be seeing in the next week or two, but we are going to do a pre-NFL draft mock as well as a post-NFL draft mock. Hopefully, between the two of them, it will help to paint a picture of each and every prospect to help jump start your draft process or help you refine your own rankings as you prepare for your draft.
For this mock, we did three rounds with twelve teams. We assumed PPR scoring and traditional lineups (so not a 2QB or superflex league). All of the drafters were asked to give a brief intro to their selection, and I’ll be providing some additional thoughts on each one as well. At this point in the process, we are still focusing on the player’s traits. With the NFL draft still to play out, there will of course be changes. Some players will leap up the board and others will tumble down, which is why we’ll be back in a few days with another mock. A lot has changed from the first mock a few months ago, and things will continue to change as we move forward. There will of course be misses and disagreements, but that is a part of the fun! Enjoy!
If you missed the first round or the second round of this mock, make sure you go back and take a look!
3.01 – Ardarius Stewart, WR Alabama
Adam T’s thoughts: The 5’11” 204 pound receiver from Alabama plays like a much larger player. Stewart brings a level of physicality that is tough to match at the college level. He showcases excellent after-the-catch ability and has the skill to be an underneath or deep threat. Grabbing a receiver of this level of completeness and grit in the third round could be quite impossible come post NFL draft time as he should fly up draft boards when taken earlier than expected.
My thoughts: I think Adam is right when he says that Stewart will rise up draft boards after the NFL draft. My guess is an NFL team will fall in love with his toughness and work ethic and make him a day two selection. He’ll likely be in the first seven or eight receivers in the NFL draft, and I expect him to be about the same in fantasy leagues. That means he’ll be more of a middle second round pick. I question his upside, and he might be a better NFL receiver than fantasy receiver, but he will definitely make an NFL team better.
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3.02 – Taiwan Taylor, WR Western Kentucky
Ryan’s thoughts: There is a large group of wideouts who have been steadily gaining value through this pre-draft period, including players taken in the second round like Carlos Henderson and Zay Jones. Taylor is among that group, but still seems to be flying under the radar a bit. He was dominant at Western Kentucky and while some are worried about his size, he showed in college that he can play bigger than his 190 pound frame suggests. While I like Taylor quite a bit, I don’t necessarily consider this pick a steal. Instead, it is just another reminder of the depth of this class. This year’s third round will feel more like a typical second round of rookie drafts with the level of talent that is available.
My thoughts: I really like Taylor. In fact, I like him better than several of the receivers who were taken before him. Some will cite his small school and lower level of competition as issues, but check out some of his games against top tier programs. A great example is his game against Alabama. Taylor has what it takes to produce at any level. He does have some room to grow though. His routes could use a little bit more work, and he needs to spend some time with the jugs machine to make sure he catches more with his hands. Those things can be fixed though, and he has everything you can’t teach. I love him at this point in the draft.
3.03 – Cooper Kupp, WR Eastern Washington
Matt P’s thoughts: Some of the shine has worn of Kupp since he turned in a disappointing 4.62 40-yard dash at the combine but the fact remains that he is a very capable receiver, especially in the slot where he is likely to begin his career. Kupp is certainly quicker than fast and it’s his quickness along with a variety of moves to beat his man off the line that makes him dangerous within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. I believe Kupp can also evolve into more of a perimeter player later in his career. He knows how to push corners on deep comebacks and understands the need to make corners flip their hips upfield before throttling down and coming back to the ball. I’d love to see Cooper Kupp in Tampa Bay or Oakland to fill out their receiver groups. In both places he can start out in the slot and grow to take over as the outside receiver after DeSean Jackson and Michael Crabtree move on.
My thoughts: Kupp is an interesting player in this year’s draft. Prior to the combine, there was talk about him rising up draft boards and possibly being a second round pick. Then he ran a 4.62 second forty and people don’t want to touch him with a 10 foot pole. While I don’t completely agree with the Julian Edelman comparisons, in part because I think Edelman is the perfect storm of talent and situation, I think Kupp does have talent. However, I question the upside he brings to the fantasy table due to a limited ceiling unless he lands in the perfect situation. He’ll likely be a much better NFL player than a fantasy player.
3.04 – Ryan Switzer, WR North Carolina
Matt F’s thoughts: If there is such thing as a safe pick in the third round of a rookie draft, Ryan Switzer it. I needed a wideout with my last pick, and with most of the bigger guys gone, I went the safe route with Switzer. He’s a 5-foot-8, 181-pound slot receiver who hauled in 96 receptions last season for over 1,000 yards. His ceiling as a fantasy receiver will be limited due to his slot-only mold, but I can see him developing into a high-volume PPR stud, in the way Jamison Crowder has emerged with Washington.
My thoughts: If I’m being completely honest, Switzer isn’t in my top 50 rookies. He could be a return man in the NFL, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a receiver at the next level. Not only are there size issues, but I think some of his production was because he had a future NFL starter as his college quarterback. When I watch Switzer play, he doesn’t seem to have NFL level athleticism, and he he’s a natural catcher of the football. When you mix it all together, I don’t think there is much here.
3.05 – Jeremy McNichols, RB Boise State
Joseph’s thoughts: McNichols is among the most well-rounded running backs still on the board in the middle of the third round. McNichols has good power and burst, and while he’s not particularly fast, he can accelerate to his top speed quickly. His college statistics rival those of the Boise State runner to precede him, Jay Ajayi. The third round of rookie drafts (and beyond) is full of dart throws, so I’ll take my chances on a player who has the potential to be a three-down runner.
My thoughts: McNichols is a complete running back with NFL size and athleticism. So what is he doing here in the third round? Well, he is a little bit like the meal that looks great and then you realize it was made with tofu instead of meat. Even though McNichols has NFL size, he tends to go down on first contact a lot and struggles to break any tackles. He also has ball security issues and doesn’t seem to make a lot of people miss in the open field. He looks great on the surface, but I don’t see an NFL starter when I look at McNichols.
3.06 – Wayne Gallman, RB Clemson
Dan’s thoughts: Gallman is someone I continue to go back and forth on, but I think he’s starting to get hated on too much. He’s certainly not the elite prospect that guys like Mixon, Cook, Fournette, and McCaffrey are, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have success at the next level. He has great burst, and is an above average pass catcher, but he likes to get lost in the offensive line and just keep churning. When he isn’t thrashing around between the tackles, he’s a playmaker in space. I get a “wreckless” DeMarco Murray feeling from him. And no, wreckless isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Let’s hope he finds a nice landing spot in this deep class.
My thoughts: I almost went with Gallman when I was picking in the late second round, and I know of several people who have him as more of an early second round selection. The fact that he went in the middle of the third round means Gallman is quite the value here. While I don’t think his ceiling is huge by any means, I do think he is a good enough jack of all trades to be a middle level RB2 if he is given a chance at the next level. His situation will ultimately determine which round of rookie drafts he goes in. I think this is pretty much his floor.
3.07 – Josh Reynolds, WR Texas A&M
Scott’s thoughts: I didn’t think Reynolds would last until 3.07, but I’ll scoop him up. Reynolds is tall (6 ft 3 in) but a bit skinny (194 lb). Productive receiver at Texas A&M, he scored 30 touchdowns in three years, including touchdowns in 11 out of 13 games in 2016. Fifth best vertical at the combine (37 inches). Potential red-zone option and touchdowns means fantasy points. Good value in the third round.
My thoughts: Reynolds is a solid, though slightly limited pick at this point in the draft. He’s a phenomenal jumper with a good work ethic and solid hands. However, he’s very thin and doesn’t seem to have a ton of space to add weight to his frame, so he does and will continue to get pushed around a lot by physical corners. This makes me wonder how effective he actually can be at the next level. It won’t take NFL corners long to figure out you just need to be physical and then Reynolds can’t do anything. Maybe he’ll be able to add some play strength to his frame. If not, I think he’s going to have a fairly low ceiling.
3.08 – DeDe Westbrook, WR Oklahoma
Mike’s thoughts: A true deep threat for the offense, he explodes off the line of scrimmage. Westbrook has the ability to use double-moves and can track the deep ball. He also has that special gear that allows a quarterback to toss the ball up so he can run under it. His ability to contort himself will make ESPN highlight reels famous. Viable in bubble screens and solid in space, Westbrook has grown into his small frame. However, his size is a challenge as is (6’0” and 175 pounds). He struggles against the physical corners because he lacks the strength to fight them off. Working the middle of the field is not Westbrook’s game, and his injury history is a concern.
My thoughts: If it wasn’t for players like Tavon Austin, Westbrook would probably be going much earlier than this. I can’t recall a time when the winner of the Biletnikoff award was a fixture in the third round of rookie drafts. Concerns about his size, ability to transition to the NFL, and character have caused him to slide a lot further than anyone could have expected. If he goes in the first few rounds of the NFL draft, I expect him to rebound a bit, but his stock isn’t looking good right now.
3.09 – DeShaun Watson, QB Clemson
My thoughts: Prior to my pick, we had 32 players off the board, four tight ends, 11 running backs and 17 receivers. You notice that one position is completely absent so far. I have a feeling if I didn’t draft one here, then we would go the entire mock without talking at all about the quarterback situation in this year’s draft. I really couldn’t let that happen, so I switched from the player I really wanted to a quarterback, just so we could talk a little bit about them.
It wasn’t that long ago, when we saw one if not two quarterbacks go in the top three of rookie drafts. I’m of course talking about the Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin III year. So to not even have a quarterback in the first three rounds tells you something about the general feeling of this year’s group. Now, once the NFL draft happens, I expect quarterbacks to start coming off the board in the middle of the second round because there is still value there even if they are just guys in the 15-20 range of NFL starters.
When it comes to the individual quarterbacks, they all have holes in their game. Some lack size, others lack experiences, some make poor decisions, and many have multiple issues. None of them are perfect, and I don’t expect any of them to be rock solid QB1s for the next decade. However, history suggests that at least one of them will at least occasionally push for those kinds of numbers. Typically it is one of the first two drafted in the NFL draft or a player who ends up on a quality team. We will need to wait for the NFL draft to play out before we can make an educated guess on who this year’s top quarterback actually is going to be.
3.10 – Marlon Mack, RB South Florida
Travis’s thoughts: It seems there just isn’t any agreement on where Marlon Mack will or should be selected in the upcoming NFL Draft. However, as far as rookie drafts go this is definitely the latest I have seen him go this spring. Normally at the end of the third round the value gets pretty gross, but not here. Mack runs ferociously, possesses adequate size and athleticism and can definitely contribute in the passing game. If you want a running back that profiles similarly to LeSean McCoy in the back end of the third round in your rookie drafts Marlon Mack is your guy.
My thoughts: Mack is an athletic running back with a little bit of size to go with his shake. There is a reason he has almost every rushing record USF has to offer. He made a lot of people miss and broke a lot of big players during his time there. The issue is he is all athleticism and very little technique. He very seldom ran between the tackles, choosing to bounce almost everything outside. He also seemed to miss a lot of potential cutback lanes, lacks power at the point of contact and has ball security issues. I worry about players who rely too much on their athleticism, because everyone in the NFL is bigger and faster.
3.11 – Joe Williams, RB Utah
Eric’s thoughts: I’m going to side with the stat junkies on this pick. There is also some homer-ism going on here as well. Williams is a one cut style of runner with elite speed and great balance. He runs with more power than you would expect from a 210 pound runner. He also shows just enough wiggle at the second level. I also think a pro style system would work better for his running style than the shotgun Utah style. Aside from the on film evaluation, Rotoviz loves this guy. Kevin Cole (@Cole_Kev) recently showed that one of the most important factors in his RB regression model was 40 time and Williams is one of the few prospects on the good side of that split this year. Williams also scored well this year in the Rotoviz workhorse metric. Some of these number junkies are even calling him the poor man’s Marshawn Lynch. I’m not sure I would go that far but I like my late round dart throws to have athletic upside, have a positive analytic upside, or show a trump card on tape. Williams checks a few of those boxes.
My thoughts: To say that Williams marches to the beat of his own drummer is a bit of an understatement. He took his first college snaps in 2012. Between then and now, he fell into the JUCO ranks, got in trouble with the law for credit card theft/fraud, retired from football and was one of the national leaders in rushing yards per game. Needless to say, there are some major red flags here that might cause him to go undrafted in the NFL draft. He does have nice speed, agility and balance though, so he might entice a few teams into thinking about him in the later rounds. He could be a draft day steal for someone, but I think it will all come down to his desire and effort. Given his past, that is a risky gamble.
3.12 – James Conner, RB Pittsburgh
Zach’s thoughts: Honestly, there were a ton of players I would have been happy to select with this pick. Fourth round rookie drafts are going to be full of players with a ton of potential. Conner gets the nod here due to his potential to take over an every down role should the opportunity ever arise. He can do it all, but he’s going to have to work his way up from the bottom of a depth chart. It will probably take an injury or two for him to get his opportunity, but I think he could become a good spot starter for fantasy teams over the next few years.
My thoughts: Out of all of the players in this year’s draft, Conner is one of the ones I want to see succeed more than just about anyone else. A cancer survivor who earned team captain and first team all conference honors this past year, he is someone you want to root for no matter who you are. He has great size and is a no nonsense downhill rusher. He will lower his shoulder and run through people, trusting his great balance to keep him upright. What he lacks is speed and agility. There isn’t much if any wiggle to his game, and he isn’t going to beat NFL defenders to the corner. This might limit him to a short yardage role in the NFL, but I would love to see him have some kind of meaningful career in the NFL.
That’s it for our three rounds! The fact that there are at least another 10 players who could have gone in round three is a testament to the depth of this year’s draft class. I think the NFL draft will help rookie boards shake out a bit, especially in the 20-40 range. We could have an entirely different draft in a few days. Speaking of that, we will be conducting our next mock draft on the Saturday of draft weekend. I’ll be live tweeting the picks as they happen (using #dlfrookiemock) and following it up with some commentary on the website. Make sure you tune in for the updated version! Enjoy the NFL draft!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
