Joe Mixon and the Potential Range of Rookie Draft Outcomes

Joseph Nammour Posted On March 14, 2017

Joe Mixon is a challenging evaluation.

Before discussing his skills on the field, we need to talk about his past off it. As you may have heard, an 18-year-old Mixon punched a woman in 2014 and was subsequently suspended for that entire season. The video is particularly gruesome, and this event is the reason Mixon is a polarizing prospect. The team that drafts him will have to deal with his baggage and the public backlash they’ll receive. For these reasons, he’s a risky investment.

Having said all that, he’s not a challenging evaluation on the field. I strongly believe Mixon is the best running back in this impressive draft class. Reminiscent of Arian Foster and Matt Forte, he’s an incredibly fluid receiver who displays rare traits in the backfield (be sure check out our 20/20 profile on him for a deeper dive into him as a player).

However, it’s all the off-field issues that make us unsure of how to deal with him. Certain teams have reportedly removed him from their draft boards altogether, but only one team needs to give him a chance for him to be fantasy relevant. The team that decides his talent is worth the criticism isn’t drafting him to have him sit on the bench. The earlier a team picks him, the more likely it is that he’s going to have a larger role. The later he falls, the easier he is to cut if things go south off the field – this is where drafting Mixon in a dynasty league is tricky.

I am not a risk-averse dynasty player. I prefer to roster the best players in the best opportunities I can and Mixon is one of the best skill-position players in this class.

Here, I’ll dissect the potential outcomes on the weekend of the draft, and how dynasty owners should subsequently react.

Among DLF’s 10 rookie rankers, Mixon is considered the fifth-best rookie and slots in no lower than ninth – results currently accounting for likely variance in his draft stock. The actual draft capital invested in Mixon should alter these ranks significantly, and his landing spot will also play a crucial role in determining our final rankings.

Before we begin, here are the players that constitute DLF’s rookie top-12, in descending order: Corey Davis, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Mike Williams, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, JuJu Smith-Schuster, John Ross, Alvin Kamara, Curtis Samuel, D’Onta Foreman, and OJ Howard. When I reference Mixon in relation to his peers in our ranks, this is the list I’m referring to.

So, where should we take Mixon in a rookie draft? Where he’s taken during the NFL Draft process is going to be a key factor in just where he should be taken. Let’s go through all the different scenarios and how they could change based on the NFL Draft. I’ll share my own personal opinion on what I’d do in these different situations.

Where do I take Mixon in a rookie draft if he goes in round one?

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

While the on-field talent merits a first-round selection, it remains highly unlikely an NFL team will be willing to absorb the criticism and backlash from picking Mixon on the draft’s most advertised and publicized day. However, if Mixon somehow does happen to be drafted in the first round, he’s a lock for the top six picks in rookie drafts and is my clear choice at the 1.01 – ahead of Corey Davis, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Mike Williams, and Christian McCaffrey.

Where do I take Mixon in a rookie draft if he goes in round two?

Again, a round two selection locks Mixon into the top six picks and he would actually still occupy my 1.01 spot, for the same reasons listed above. A selection this early means a team views him as a feature back, a role that comes with volume and opportunity – the lifeblood of fantasy scoring.

Where do I take Mixon in a rookie draft if he goes in rounds three or four?

Here is where it starts to get trickier.

If Mixon goes off the board in the third round, I still feel comfortable taking him inside the top six selections of a rookie draft due to his talent alone, but I would not take him at the 1.01 – unless the team that drafts him has little competition for him in their backfield like the Colts, Giants, Packers, Buccaneers, Lions, Vikings, Eagles or Redskins. Instead, I would consider him after Corey Davis, Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette – but ahead of Mike Williams and Christian McCaffrey, who, in my opinion, have lower ceilings. This is personal preference and also dependent on landing spot for the other players in this tier, but Mixon starts to become a riskier selection this high. If his landing spot in the third round is suboptimal and he’ll immediately face competition for touches (or he looks to be limited to third down work), he would drop to the 1.06 on my draft board.

If Mixon is a fourth round pick, he drops to the 1.06 in the best- case scenario because most teams with a glaring need at the position are likely to have addressed their hole in the first three rounds. The only four running backs ranked between 13 and 24 in DLF’s rookie ranks are Mixon’s former collegiate teammate Samaje Perine, as well as Kareem Hunt, Wayne Gallman and Jamaal Williams. All four of these four runners are talented and figure to come off the board late on the second day of the draft or in the fourth round – this affords those players more volume, vaulting them up rookie rankings, while Mixon would then have a harder path to volume. I’d look to take Mixon between 1.06 and 1.09 in this scenario.

Where do I take Mixon in a rookie draft if he goes in rounds five through seven?

If Mixon is selected in the fifth round, I’d consider him between picks 1.07 and 1.12, depending on the situation he lands in. Talent supersedes all else, and if he enters the season as a backup, it’s unlikely he’ll stay in that role for long. However, the further he falls, the riskier he becomes.

Mixon being drafted in the sixth or seventh rounds makes him a late-first or early-second round pick for me. The hit rate towards the back half of the second round of rookie drafts starts to diminish, and I’d look to take a lottery ticket like Mixon before this area, even in the worst of situations. There are only a handful of NFL running backs with as much raw talent as Mixon, which makes it likely that he eventually takes charge of whatever backfield he lands in. But not only will he have a harder time seeing immediate opportunity, it’s possible he could get cut if he has one misstep off the field. Mixon isn’t the type of person who would get many more chances around the league if he has another off-field transgression in his name.

Where do I take Mixon in a rookie draft if he goes undrafted and signs as a FA?

As sickening as Mixon’s off-field incident was, I find it hard to believe that all 32 NFL franchises would pass on a talent like his on seven different occasions. However, if he does happen to go undrafted, he would then get to choose his team (and situation), assuming that club is willing to accept his baggage. This is a more appealing outcome for him than being drafted late on the final day of the draft, although he would be instantly cuttable if something were to go wrong.

As for dynasty owners, he represents the ultimate lottery ticket. His talent merits the top overall pick in rookie drafts, but being passed on 250 times means there are legitimate concerns that he’ll last in the league. Still, considering the hit rate of third round rookie picks, I would take Mixon before that – somewhere in the early range of 2.01-2.06.

Talking about Joe Mixon is difficult. It’s challenging to be effusive of his body of work on the field while knowing what he did off the field. Like NFL franchises, some dynasty players will opt against rostering Mixon in any scenario, which I admire. It’s impossible to root for someone who did something that cannot be unseen. But if he turns his life around, he may make people wish they made a strictly football decision.

What would you do in these scenarios? Let us know in the comments below!

[/am4show]