Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we’ll be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2017 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player Name — Joe Mixon.
2.) College — Oklahoma.
3.) Height/Weight — 6-foot-1, 227 pounds
4.) Birth date — July 24, 1996.
5.) Class — Redshirt Sophomore.
6.) Basic college stats — For his two-year career, Mixon carried the ball 300 times for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns, gaining 6.8 yards per carry. He also caught 65 passes for 894 yards and nine scores. After picking up 1,109 yards from scrimmage (753 rushing) and 11 total touchdowns as a redshirt freshman in 2015, Mixon racked up 1,812 yards (1,274 rushing) and 15 total scores this past season.
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7.) NFL Draft round projection — There really isn’t a right — or a wrong — answer here. Mixon is going to be one of the big wild cards this draft. Due to his off-field issues, which we’ll cover in a second, some teams have taken him off their draft board, according to reports. With that said, Tyreek Hill, who had similar issues, was taken in the fifth round last year, so there’s probably almost no chance Mixon goes undrafted. Based purely on his on-field production and ability, Mixon is certainly worth an early selection — maybe a first-round pick — but his incidents are going to cause him to fall. How far? Well, that’s anyone’s guess. I’m just taking a stab here, so take this with a huge heap of salt, but I can’t see Mixon lasting past the third round. Sure, selecting him is going to be a public relations headache for some organization, but his talent is just too great to ignore.
8.) Current NFL comp — Arian Foster and Matt Forte. I fully realize what I’m saying there as Forte and Foster are two of the best all-around backs in recent NFL history. I really think Mixon is that talented, and he is capable of excelling as a runner or receiver. In a class with some exceptional running backs, Mixon is as talented as anyone.
9.) Best possible destination — Indianapolis Colts, Carolina Panthers or Washington Redskins.
All three of these teams have good offenses and quality passing games, but each of them could stand to use an upgrade at running back. From a fantasy perspective, any of these places would be a sweet spot for any running back.
10.) Worst possible destination — New York Jets.
Aside from the New York media likely feasting on Mixon’s off-field troubles, the Jets are a trainwreck offensively. Just look to the Los Angeles Rams to see what a terrible, listless offense can do to a really talented running back. The Jets have been pegged to take a running back in several mock drafts, but it’ll be a difficult for a running back to succeed there — or have a high ceiling — until the offense improves.
11.) Best current skill — His versatility. Mixon is an excellent receiver who is a natural pass catcher, and he should be able to excel coming out of the backfield or lining up outside. Oklahoma did a nice job using him in a variety of ways, including in the return game, and some offensive coordinator is going to have a lot of fun utilizing his talent.Â
12.) Skill that needs to be improved — Mixon’s long speed doesn’t appear to be elite. He didn’t receive an invite to the combine, so Mixon’s only going to get one shot — his pro day — to run the 40-yard dash in front of all 32 teams. He also doesn’t run with great power, at times, but it can be deceiving because he’s such a smooth athlete.
13.) Past/current rookie ADP — We don’t have any rookie ADP data yet, so we’ll look at our 2017 class rankings. Mixon is currently our fifth-ranked player and third-ranked running back. One ranker has him as high as second overall while two others list him seventh and eighth, respectively.
14.) Projected dynasty value — With this being a highly-coveted class, Mixon’s status as the fifth-ranked player in the group already makes him a borderline top-40 asset. On running ability alone, he’d be a promising prospect, but when you add in his excellent receiving skills, he really has the upside of a possible top-end asset. At a minimum, the receiving ability gives him a safe floor and should help make him a consistent fantasy performer.
15.) The bad stuff — As we’ve referenced many times throughout the piece, Mixon comes with a lot of baggage. Most of it stems from a 2014 incident in which he punched a woman. It is a serious — and despicable — act. The incident really exploded on the national scene this year because video of the punch was made public, but it occurred during Mixon’s true freshman year in Norman. As a result, he was suspended for the 2014 season. His character is going to be one of the big stories this draft season.
16.) Young for his grade — Mixon doesn’t turn 21 until this June, so he’s young for this draft class. That’s obviously a positive, and it means he can play nine years in the NFL before turning 30, if he’s lucky enough to play that long.
17.) Sharing the load — Because he was suspended for a year, Mixon only played two seasons for Oklahoma, and he split the backfield work each year with teammate Samaje Perine. That’s prevented Mixon from taking on too much of a burden as he’s only seen 20-plus carries in a game twice in his career. Mixon leaves Oklahoma with just 300 carries of wear and tear on his body (plus the 65 catches). For reference, Derrick Henry had 395 carries in just his final year at Alabama.
18.) Still capable — That doesn’t mean Mixon can’t succeed when saddled with a big load as he totaled 410 rushing yards (7.45 YPC) and three scores on 55 carries across the two games in which he got at least 20 carries. Also, Mixon thoroughly out-produced Perine — a good prospect himself — in 2016. Perine touched the ball 206 times (rushing and receiving) and gained a stout 5.7 yards per play, but Mixon picked up a superb 8.1 yards per play on his 224 touches.
19.) Vision — Mixon compensates for less-than-elite wheels with excellent vision and footwork. A great example of this is his 79-yard touchdown run this past season against Oklahoma State. Initially, Mixon does an excellent job finding the hole, and his sudden footwork allows him to hit the crease as soon as it opens. Once he gets to the second level, he bounces the run to the outside and weaves his way to the house. It’s pretty a pretty play, but the lack of long speed may hurt him in the NFL, where faster defenders are going to take better angles to prevent a run like this from going 79 yards.
20.) Incredibly consistent — Mixon played 25 games with the Sooners. He saw at least eight carries in 17 of those games, and only twice was he held under 4.0 yards per carry in a game. This past season, Mixon racked up at least 93 total yards (rushing and receiving) in 11 of his 12 contests.
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I have the 1.05 pick this year and I’m wishing the best for Joe Mixon.
Good article, I’ve been waiting for this one…
Indeed. His landing spot will be important. Teams like KC, NE, and CAR could handle the negative media stuff. Reid and belichick would shut it down immediately, and CAR can handle all the Cam stuff, so can’t see this being an issue.
All the reports of him going undrafted are complete nonsense. Does anyone really think this guy won’t get drafted in 7 rounds? The press on him since the video has been overly positive.
I with you on him being drafted. I just hope he doesn’t fall too far in the draft into a team that isn’t ideal. If he goes to a RB needy team, I really do think he will start being considered in the same class as LF and Cook.
Not nonsense at all — I’d guess that more likely than not he does get drafted, but there is a real chance he doesn’t get drafted at all. Dude, there’s a reason he wasn’t invited to the NFL combine. And the press has not been all positive on him since the video – google the parking lot attendant incident. I’m hoping he gets a 2nd chance and makes the most of it, but the league has been (rightly) snake bit on this issue after bungling it so badly with the Ray Rice case.
If tyreek hill can get drafted, joe mixon can get drafted. Tyreek hill’s transgressions were far worse than mixons.
The only team I truly believe has wiped mixon from their draft board is BAL. everyone else would consider if the value is right.
Unlikely Richardson would clear for him to be drafted. Cam acting like a child at times is much different than true possible character issues. After Rae Carruth and Greg Hardy in the passed just do not see it.
I have been waiting on this one as well! Great article! I really like this kid (well his football ability) and I currently own 1.02, 1.08, 1.10, and 1.13 this year. 14 team lg. The guy at 1.05 has mentioned that he wouldn’t be opposed to moving down. Is offering 1.10 and 1.13 enough for 1.05, or would I need to add additional picks or players? Players I would feel comfortable adding include, Ameer, Bilal, Lacy, or Ertz? I made a lot of moves the last few years planning for 2017 and to be competitive this year. I have a good squad that I think can make run, and adding pieces at 1.02 and 1.05 might put me over the top to get that elusive championship! I would use 1.05 on Mixon assuming someone doesn’t love him at 3 or 4.
I would let things shake out (after NFL draft) to see where Mixon falls before offering 1.10 and 1.13 for 1.05. If Mixon lands in a poor situation, I’m not liking a whole lot of players after 1.04. Too many question marks with Ross, JuJu, McCaffrey, etc. I’d rather roll the dice twice with a few picks later than once on the 1.05 pick.
Probably good advice. I’ll have to control my impulsivity somehow. Thanks for the reply.
I think if the news starts getting really positive about him getting drafted and you trust that source, you may want to make the trade before his dynasty draft spot can get solidified and you won’t be able to move up and get him.
The good news is, if you do move back to 1.05, there are other guys there worthy of the draft slot; mccaffrey, ross, and possibly Williams or Davis. Hell, even fournette could slip if he goes to a place like CLE.
Just make sure you get value for moving from 1.02 to 1.05. Having the ability to get 1 of cook and fournette, or whoever you top WR is, is extremely valuable.
Has anyone heard if he is attending one of the other regional combines? Any draft eligible player not invited to Indy has an opportunity to perform at one of them if they submit their name.
He’s scheduled to participate in Oklahoma’s pro day on March 8th. I’d be surprised if all 32 teams don’t send someone to evaluate him, along with other promising OU prospects. Glad the university allowed him this opportunity, I’m expecting him to dominate his drills and be overly humble/contrite with the media.
WIth all the unknowns surrounding Mixon at this point in the process, I still have him in my top 12, just waiting to see who takes him and when come April. Then I’ll move him up accordingly.
