Rookie Draft Picks and Trade Value: How to Value the 1.01

Mark Johnson Posted On February 7, 2017

Editor’s note: In case you missed it, last week we introduced our revolutionary Dynasty Trade Finder tool. The Trade Finder gathers information from several thousand dynasty leagues, allowing users to search recent trades involving players and draft picks, and filter by league scoring, size and starting lineup requirements. In addition to Mark’s research, we will soon be able to examine more deals involving individual draft picks (when MyFantasyLeague.com flips over to 2017 leagues).

Recently, I wrote about the elite talent that can be found atop the 2017 draft class – especially the top four. That’s all well and good, but only addresses part of the pie we’re all interested in eating. Most everyone in the dynasty community has an idea about how special this draft class is projected to be, but properly assessing the trade value associated with 2017 rookie picks is another story. Every year around this time, teams are looking to either acquire or trade rookie picks. There are naysayers everywhere who suggest 2017 rookie picks are immovable because of the uniqueness of the 2017 draft class, but those naysayers are wrong.

First, while this draft class is certainly shaping up to be special, lofty expectations for guys who have never played a single down in the league have come crumbling down more times than I care to count. So, chalking any of these inbound rookies as sure-fire all pro NFL players is plain foolish. Second, and more importantly, everything has a price. As for 2017 rookie picks, I am setting out to provide a series for our readers judge the trade value of this year’s top selections (namely, the 1.01 through the 1.08). Without further ado, let’s take a look at the 1.01.

To help establish a rough consensus regarding just what the trade value of the 1.01 is, I took to the Internet, running a ton of Twitter polls (apologies to my followers for the redundancy), utilizing trade calculators, conferring with fellow dynasty enthusiasts on dynasty forums, and more. After compiling the results from my market research, I sought to develop examples of “fair” and “unfair” trades based on that data (see below).

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Unbalanced Trades: Buyer Wins

Example 1
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Todd Gurley
Example 2
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Dez Bryant
Example 3
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Sammy Watkins
Example 4
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Lamar Miller + 2017 1.08
Example 5
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Rob Gronkowski + 2017 1.12
Example 6
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: 2017 1.05 + 2017 1.10

I have come across far more than a handful of recently executed trades involving the pieces above, or extremely similar pieces and combinations. Now, I do not necessarily believe the trades above as many amount to a sale of the 2017 1.01 at a fraction of a dollar. However, my research tells me Kevin Garnett may have been on to something when he famously said, “ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!!!!” So, get out there and strike up talks with the owner sitting on the 1.01 in your league. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, and the owner of the 2017 1.01 in your league just might undervalue his options atop the incoming 2017 draft class.

Unbalanced Trades: Seller Wins

Example 1
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Julio Jones
Example 2
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: David Johnson
Example 3
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Amari Cooper
Example 4
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Brandin Cooks + 2017 1.03
Example 5
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Todd Gurley + 2017 1.06
Example 6
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: 2017 1.02 + 2017 1.06

The same can be said from a seller’s vantage. We all know dynasty addicts who are currently getting swept away with rookie draft fever. It happens every year, and every year owners are paying huge premiums for top draft picks the nearer the draft draws. If you’re able to swing a sale resembling anything close to the options above, forget about waiting for the pre-draft process to unfold, pull the trigger. The public is torn between Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook as the top selection across 2017 rookie drafts, and that means the 2017 1.01 is not that much different than the 2017 1.02. However, not everyone sees it that way. So, if you’re happy with either of the two, it might be worth trading back, if the rake is worth it.

Balanced Trades

Example 1
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: A.J. Green
Example 2
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: DeAndre Hopkins
Example 3
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Allen Robinson
Example 4
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Jeremy Hill + 2017 1.03
Example 5
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: Brandin Cooks + 2017 1.06
Example 6
- Seller sends: 2017 1.01
- Buyer sends: 2017 1.04 + 2017 1.06

These trades above align with the public consensus as of the writing of this article (2/3/2017). As the pre-draft process unfolds, and the 2017 NFL Draft draws nearer, these examples of balanced trades will very likely become unbalanced buys as the 1.01 is sure to inflate as it does every spring. So, it’s difficult to stand before you and say “this is a fair trade,” because things will change. However, for those out there who are antsy with a trade itch they just can’t resist scratching, if you’re selling, try keeping your trades involving the 1.01 somewhere in the ballpark above, and you should feel remorse-free at this time next year.

Conclusion

For every example above, I tried to push as close to the envelope as possible. That is, I tried not to go the obvious route, and list a bunch of trades everyone reading this article would readily agree with. In fact, I myself do not completely agree with much of what I have found public opinion to be regarding the 2017 1.01. I believe there is very little separating the top four prospects from one another in this year’s draft class (even with Corey Davis’ ankle injury), and even lesser margins when looking at the top three.

If I held the 2017 1.01 in a dynasty league right now, I’d be looking for an owner obsessed with Cook or Fournette looking to move up from the 1.02 or 1.03, and see what else I’d be able to get in return. As we all know, much may change between now and May, so if I’m selling, I’m waiting through the combine to see things more thoroughly shake out. If I’m buying, I’m texting the 1.01 owner in my league while I’m reading this piece. This is not gospel, and every 1.01 owner out there values his or her pick differently, but the people have spoken, and hopefully the above helps illustrate the current consensus valuation of the 2017 1.01 rookie pick.

Stay tuned for our next article, discussing the 1.02 rookie pick.

[/am4show]