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Rookie Draft Picks and Trade Value: How to Value the 1.02

Mark Johnson Posted On February 15, 2017
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Editor’s note: In case you missed it, we recently introduced our revolutionary Dynasty Trade Finder tool. The Trade Finder gathers information from several thousand dynasty leagues, allowing users to search recent trades involving players and draft picks, and filter by league scoring, size and starting lineup requirements. In addition to Mark’s research, we will soon be able to examine more deals involving individual draft picks (when MyFantasyLeague.com flips over to 2017 leagues).

You have been reading about the 2017 draft class for over a year now, and you are experiencing symptoms of 2017 rookie draft hysteria more than ever before.  You have tried to trade up for the first overall pick, but the owner of the 1.01 is asking for a king’s ransom.  What do you do next?  That’s right, you shift your focus to the 1.02.  As you look over your roster and theirs, you are no doubt left wondering…what exactly is the 2017 1.02 worth?  Well, first have a look at my previous article from this series, examining the trade value of the 2017 1.01.  I refer you to this work because it is becoming more and more evident that, this year, possibly more than any other, the value-gap between the 1.01 and 1.02 is razor thin.  The fact that so many are split on who should go first (between Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette) helps explain why.     

Over the past weeks, I ran countless Twitter polls, over-utilized trade calculators, taken to our dynasty forums, and more, to formulate a consensus value for 2017 1.02 rookie-draft selection.  Like my last piece in this series regarding the 2017 1.01, after compiling the results from my market research, I sought to develop examples of “fair” and “unfair” trades based on that data (see below). 

Unbalanced Trades: Buyer Wins

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  • Example 1
  • Example 2
  • Example 3
  • Example 4
    • Seller sends: 2017 1.02
    • Buyer sends: Lamar Miller + 2017 1.08 
  • Example 5
  • Example 6
    • Seller sends: 2017 1.02
    • Buyer sends: 2017 1.05 + 2017 1.08

I found the following Twitter poll results very interesting:

gronk poll

What do you think about this?  Do you think this seems a bit lopsided?  This should definitely help you better understand public opinion as it relates to the 2017 1.02, especially after looking at what this infamous trade calculator thinks of the deal:

gronk trade calculator

I understand the concerns over Gronk’s injury history, Tom Brady and the whole aging thing, and views that Gronk could before long be let go by New England, but this seems like it should have been a much closer vote for such a positional difference-maker.  Nevertheless, I’ve taken the public’s pulse in multiple forums, and the poll above illustrates how the general dynasty public compares the trade value of each of these commodities. 

Aside from the Gronk deal above, I stand beside the public in that the rest of those deals seem like buyer-leaning scores.  If you are a potential buyer and can work out a deal mirroring any of the above, pull the trigger.  The price of the 1.02 will likely only go up after the NFL Combine.

Unbalanced Trades: Seller Wins

  • Example 1
  • Example 2
  • Example 3
  • Example 4
  • Example 5
  • Example 6
    • Seller sends: 2017 1.02
    • Buyer sends: 2017 1.03 + 2017 1.05 

My market research proved that, in a majority of instances, acquiring the 1.02 (much like the 1.01) for one player will require an over-pay.  If you are looking to acquire the 1.02 and wisely are unwilling to part with a dynasty asset for an unproven shiny ball, it would behoove you to offer the owner of the 1.02 a combination of players and/or picks.

As I mentioned in my last piece, we all know dynasty owners out there drooling all over themselves over the inbound rookie class.  Every year, owners do over-pay for top draft picks the closer we get to rookie drafts.  So, to all you sellers out there, I would like to convey just two of my personal sentiments:

1. I do not like Sammy Watkins as a long-term dynasty asset.  He’s too unreliable, and I would not sell the 1.02 for that which the public views as a trade favoring a seller.

2. Unless you are able to get the likes of an Amari Cooper, Le’Veon Bell, etc. for the 1.02, I would advise you hold for the time being.  My rationale is simple…it is peak rookie-hype season, and the combine will only increase the value of your precious draft picks.  You will almost certainly be able to get more for your pick in a month or two than you can today.

Balanced Trades

  • Example 1
  • Example 2
  • Example 3
  • Example 4
    • Seller sends: 2017 1.02
    • Buyer sends: Corey Coleman + 2017 1.08   
  • Example 5
  • Example 6
    • Seller sends: 2017 1.02
    • Buyer sends: 2017 1.04 + 2017 1.08

What was remarkable to me was finding that the public views either the 1.01 OR the 1.02 to be a fair bargain for Allen Robinson.  Perhaps that has as much to do with Allen Robinson (and his team/quarterback) as it does anything else, but it also demonstrates the aforementioned razor-thin gap separating the 1.01 and 1.02 in the public’s eye.  It will be interesting to see what happens with that gap following this year’s combine.    

Before offering my conclusion, I will provide the same disclaimer I did last week.  The trades above align with the public consensus as of the writing of this article (2/11/2017).  As the pre-draft process unfolds, and the 2017 NFL Draft draws nearer, these examples of balanced trades will very likely become unbalanced buys as rookie pick values inflate as they do every spring.  So, it’s difficult to stand before you and say “this is a fair trade,” because things WILL change.  However, for those of you out there antsy with a trade itch you just cannot resist scratching, sales involving the 1.02 somewhere in the ballpark above should keep you remorse-free this time next year. 

Conclusion

As I did in my previous piece, I avoided going the obvious route.  While I pointed out a few instances where I disagree with public opinion in this article, this is not meant to be a series sharing my personal views on the value of 2017 rookie picks—it is meant to show you how the public values them.  If you would like to run trades by me for my takes, feel free to leave comments below this piece and I will do my best to respond as time allows.   

Best of luck to all you trade-hunters out there, and stay tuned for my next article, examining the 2017 1.03 rookie pick!

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mark johnson
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