Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Three
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Cleveland at Miami
Rashard Higgins finds himself with a potential opportunity with Josh Gordon still suspended and Corey Coleman injured. Add in that his skill set blends well with quarterback Cody Kessler and you’re looking at a potential garbage time check down hero this week. As with any young quarterback, seeing who they build rapport with early is vital to projecting future value in receivers.
Do you know what the Dolphins are doing at running back with Arian Foster injured? Kudos if so, because I’m pretty sure the Dolphins don’t even know. Or maybe they do, and the answer is Kenyan Drake whom they drafted 73rd overall in the 2016 NFL draft and scored a touchdown in week two. The counterpoint here is that the Dolphins will form a committee, and while likely true, this doesn’t reflect that the current coaching staff is only invested in Foster and Drake. Jay Ajayi might just be the red herring in all of this.
Detroit at Green Bay
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Wow, Lions, that escalated quickly. Theo Riddick is now the lead back but we don’t even really know what that means anymore for this team. Add in that Riddick was already valued highly and I don’t think his value skyrockets since he won’t get many goal line carries. The guy who stands to really benefit from a value bump is Dwayne Washington. Call it a hunch, but I legitimately question if Riddick can hold up to a substantially increased workload, while Washington looks built for it.
Fat Eddie jokes aside, it’s time for Eddie Lacy to start eating. This should be a high scoring game by all accounts, and Lacy should be heavily involved in the red zone when the Packers move the ball. Time to step up or move down, Eddie.
Washington at New York (Giants)
The Redskins will be going up against an improved Giants defense, which is particularly difficult to run against in the early part of the 2016 season. Since Jamison Crowder is humming along I’ll stop selecting him and go with Chris Thompson, who stands to be the other beneficiary of checkdowns against a stout defense. He has perhaps the best defined role of the Redskins running backs, but is still valued lowly.
Sterling Shepard checks every box for me right now. He was supposed to be polished enough to produce right away, and he’s a top 24 WR after two weeks. He got eight targets in week two and Odell Beckham, Jr. is set up to be shadowed by Josh Norman. Washington’s other corners won’t be able to keep up with Shepard, who should have a field day. Bold call here: he’s in the top 12 in WR scoring after three weeks, and his value will go up big after a start like that.
Baltimore at Jacksonville
Mike Wallace has been lightning in a bottle for Joe Flacco through two weeks. Jacksonville just got scorched by Travis Benjamin, another speedster, and this is just me connecting the dots, but I think he’s in line for a big week. Three weeks of big yardage and touchdowns cannot be ignored for dynasty valuation purposes, so Wallace is the guy to keep an eye on for a value bump in Baltimore.
Speaking of humming, Allen Robinson sure ain’t. Robinson saw monster target volume and air yards in week one but then dropped to five targets in a blowout against the Chargers in week two. Baltimore just gave up a giant week to the perennially elite combination of Josh McCown and Corey Coleman. Wait, you mean that’s the first time they played together? Oh, okay, well then sign me up for a get right week between Blake Bortles and Robinson, who should burn the Ravens at least two or three times.
Oakland at Tennessee
Guess who is third in targets for the Raiders. If you answered Clive Walford, good job. Oakland’s defense is atrocious despite personnel upgrades, so Tennessee should be able to score a lot and force Oakland to keep pace. Walford actually saw more week two targets than Michael Crabtree, so I’m thinking the tight end will progress further and become a red zone threat for the Raiders. On a team giving up yards and points like there’s no tomorrow, Walford could gain substantial value.
If you remember reading what I wrote about the Raiders defense one paragraph ago, Marcus Mariota should be no surprise selection for a value uptick in a great spot against them. There are a couple of things that might be going unnoticed as well that leads me to believe he will explode in week three. The Titans run game is not as advertised, with most of DeMarco Murray’s yardage coming on one long run. On top of that, the team is throwing 81% of the time in the red zone. I expect any and all scoring to go through Mariota against a bottom-barrel defensive unit.
Arizona at Buffalo
Another player in need of a get right game is Michael Floyd. If you watched the Jets destroy Buffalo in week two, then you already know it should happen for Floyd in week three. Should is the key word, though, because if it doesn’t then we need to go back to the drawing board for Floyd’s value. Put up points, Michael. My heavily invested self is begging you.
Tyrod Taylor’s sad fantasy football shell is what you get when Sammy Watkins is injured and your team fires the offensive coordinator mid-week. Greg Roman was known for running complex run schemes that got results out of a sub-par run blocking unit. Take the complexity out, and I think suddenly the Bills run game is a weakness. In turn, and especially without Watkins, the stellar Cardinals defense should be able to shut down the passing game as well. This could get ugly and Tyrod could be tough to bank on going forward. It’s a shame, too, because he was looking good and just signed a long term contract.
Denver at Cincinnati
Do you know what teams need to be successful in the postseason consistently? A strong defense and run game that can grind it out on the road. CJ Anderson has an opportunity to step up and shine against a tough Bengals defense on the road while his team’s passing game is pretty much in tatters. Can he be a foundation back? Let’s sip our beer and found out this weekend, ladies and gents.
AJ Green got shut down against an underwhelming Pittsburgh secondary in week two. Denver has a better defense than Pittsburgh. I love AJG, his target share, and everything about his game… but the Steelers just showed the NFL that you can beat the Bengals by selling out to shut down one man because the rest of their weapons can’t step up to the plate. AJG needs to not get shut down two weeks in a row, even in a tough spot, or else his 2016 value will drop and it could impact his future value as well.
Minnesota at Carolina
In a game looking likely to feature two running backs with enhanced opportunity due to injury, Jerick McKinnon is next man up for the Vikings. A SPARQ freak converted from quarterback, I want to see him shine in 2016 as opposed to 2014 when he merely glimmered as a rookie. It’s a tough spot against the Panthers, but he is a big play waiting to happen. If he can make it happen against the Panthers, he can make it happen against anyone and his value will skyrocket.
Cameron Artis-Payne stands to be the guy taking advantage of Jonathan Stewart’s injury. I’m not really sure how much value he can gain from it since the Panthers RB1 is rarely used on the goal line, but I know everyone else on the roster has a value that’s fairly immoveable at this time. Keep an eye on him, he could just as easily be something as nothing.
Late Games
San Francisco at Seattle
Quick, name a bargain basement summer quarterback that had upside who most people ignored. Did you answer with Blaine Gabbert? Yeah, me too. Since this is fantasy I don’t really care if his production comes early in the game or in garbage time, so his fantasy production shouldn’t be ignored. Doubly so if he can put up good numbers against the Panthers and Seahawks back to back.
Tyler Lockett is a great wide receiver, but he lacks volume. The perfect solution for his value to go up would be more volume. This week, the Seahawks play against the 49ers, who have this funny habit of allowing opposing teams to run an absurd amount of plays. The Panthers ran 13.7% more plays against the 49ers in week two than they did against the Broncos in week one. More snaps could lead to more targets, and we know what Lockett can do with those. With a banged up run game, I think a breakout and value bump are coming.
Los Angeles at Tampa Bay
Do you know what Los Angeles needs more than anything else? Yeah, so does literally everyone with a pulse that follows football (an actual passing game.) Tavon Austin got paid this summer and has put up duds. He needs to get going with or without a premier quarterback and fast, or else he’s at risk of simply being a gadget player that can’t get it done.
We all know the tale of troubled Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Well, as my Summer Sleeper, Cameron Brate stands to benefit from ASJ’s woes. Let’s sit back and see what he can do with his new found position atop the depth chart and revisit his value on Monday. By then we should know if he should be a buy, sell, or hold.
San Diego at Indianapolis
Hunter Henry is the likely beneficiary of the Chargers injury woes, at least for week three before someone else gets hurt. With Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, and now Antonio Gates on the shelf, I expect Henry to eat in the short to intermediate passing game against a Colts defense that is weak in the middle of the field with or without their best defenders. If he turns this opportunity into production as a rookie tight end, look out world.
This is Phillip Dorsett’s time to step up and shine with Donte Moncrief injured. You’ve probably read all about Dorsett this week from a thousand other people, so I won’t go into much detail. Suffice it to say, if he can turn this opportunity into on field demonstration that he can handle being the team’s WR2, his value should see a spike commensurate with that performance.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Word is that Markus Wheaton will rotate with Sammie Coates and Darrius Heyward-Bey. He was touted as the teams WR2 coming into the season, so I’d like to see him get actual targets on the routes he does get to run this week. No one else on the team really stands to gain or lose value this week with Le’Veon Bell returning soon and Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown locked into their values. What a boring pick.
If you watched the Eagles game last week, you may have noticed Nelson Agholor consistently getting open and making catches against the porous Chicago secondary. When you consider that Carson Wentz is the future of quarterbacking in Philly, it is quite encouraging to see a rapport building. When Zach Ertz returns, Agholor will benefit from defenses being forced to key on multiple really talented receivers, opening up opportunity for him.
New York (Jets) at Kansas City
You’ve heard this story before, Brandon Marshall is a game time decision. Where the story is different this time around, though, is that the Jets have an adequate player to step up if he is out in Quincy Enunwa. Enunwa dominated the early part of the week two game against Buffalo and, if Marshall is out and Decker takes defensive attention, he could be the star of the day for New York. Three weeks of good production and his value will only be able to go up.
AJ Green destroyed Darrelle Revis in week one. Revis didn’t fare much better in his week two matchup. Jeremy Maclin is next in line to build a condo on Revis Island, and, as if that wasn’t enough, he is averaging 11 targets per game in 2016 despite relatively quiet stat lines. Maclin has real blow up potential and he may have been going at a discount up until now. Not after Sunday.
Sunday Night
Chicago at Dallas
Injuries aren’t helping, but what Chicago is doing on offense to start the season really isn’t working that well. Jordan Howard went from 0% of team running back snaps in week one to 21% in week two (4for4.com snap app). He came on strong in preseason week four, and incumbent Jeremy Langford is leaving yards on the field through two weeks. Buzz is that Howard could begin eating into Langford’s carries, and if he does he could be the best runner the team has. Keep an eye on his usage this week, as he could be in store for a jump in value.
Raise your hand if you thought Cole Beasley would be leading the Cowboys in targets through two weeks. Now, put your hand down you filthy liar. While it is with the “backup” quarterback in Dak Prescott, volume cannot be ignored in fantasy football. When you consider that Prescott may usurp Romo for the starting gig in the near future anyway, it makes sense to get in on Cole now. Chicago has a weak defense right now and Dallas may be playing with a lead. If he still remains heavily involved in the game plan, move him up your value board.
Monday Night
Atlanta at New Orleans
For the Falcons, I’m going to be a little brash and go with Julio Jones. Don’t get me wrong, Julio is an elite wide receiver; however, he isn’t getting any younger, is perpetually banged up, and hasn’t had one of those “Julio” games where he absolutely blows up yet this year despite some high scoring games. Choosing him in this spot is all about ceiling – as in, I want to see it. OBJ was held out of the end zone and didn’t have a monster game against the weak Saints secondary. Julio should blow up here, and if he doesn’t, I think it’s time we re-evaluate his ceiling going forward.
Coby Fleener is coming off of a pathetic two game stretch for someone with his volume and pay grade. Three catches on 12 targets for 35 yards on a team that has passed for as many yards as the Saints have is absurd. Creeping into the sixth and seventh round of off-season ADP by the end of the summer, Fleener has surely disappointed his owners. The ship needs to be righted, and soon, or his value will go in the tank.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
