Sunday Morning Huddle: Week One
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Oakland at New Orleans
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The dynasty community has been decidedly high on DeAndre Washington and relatively low on Latavius Murray this off-season given their situation relative to one another. Washington is a fifth round rookie pick, while Murray handled a heavy workload in 2015 for the Raiders. In what figures to be a high scoring game between the Saints and Raiders, the usage of Murray will be telling of his value going forward. If we see him involved in all facets of the game, he could see his value rise as one of the few backs in the league likely to receive a steady workload on a rising offense. On the other hand, if Washington comes in for passing and third down work, Murray’s upside will be capped and his workload becomes game script dependent. Keep an eye on game flow and usage in the Raiders backfield to decide if Murray is in line for a value bump relative to his ADP.
Coby Fleener finds himself in the value crosshairs for the Saints. After signing a big free agency contract into seemingly the perfect situation for a pass catching tight end, Fleener has struggled to pick up the playbook and build chemistry in New Orleans according to latest reports. The upside is massive for him if he can put it together, but the downside is measurable as well given his high ADP. For him, we want to see how often he is running routes, what target share he receives, and where he is at on the field when he gets his targets. Heavy red zone usage will be a plus, as will targets in the middle of the field as it could be an indicator Michael Thomas won’t eat into the volume projected to go to Fleener.
Cleveland at Philadelphia
For the Browns, a player I’m watching this weekend is sure to be a popular name after this preseason in Terrelle Pryor. Corey Coleman’s value should remain unphased regardless of performance and usage in his first career game. With Josh Gordon slated for return in week five, Pryor will have limited opportunities to prove himself in game situations before he could see himself permanently relegated. What to look for with him this weekend is the development of more than just the deep ball connection between Robert Griffin III and Pryor. Given Coleman and Gordon’s speed, that element of Pryor’s game is 100% replaceable on the Browns roster. If he can win on more complicated routes and adjust to the ball in the air to make contested hands catches, Pryor could see his value rise as he is more likely to force his way into a more permanent role.
A part of me wanted to focus on Ryan Mathews for the Eagles, but ultimately I’m going with Zach Ertz. With seemingly no competition from wide receivers outside of Jordan Matthews for meaningful targets, Ertz’ target share will be very telling of his future value. Considering the Eagles have a new coach and a rookie quarterback at the helm, he could establish himself for a significant and meaningful role for the foreseeable future. If he comes out of the gate this year with a monster number of targets, there is no reason to expect that to suddenly stop. He could be a savvy buy based on week one performance.
Green Bay at Jacksonville
Green Bay has a lot of options, considering how highly projected the offense is. Eddie Lacy finds himself at a pivot point after a weak 2015 campaign relative to his prior production. This off-season, the word is that he has re-committed himself to his craft and gotten into great shape. If that proves to be true and is reflected in his on field play, look for his value to surge once again. Defenses will be kept more honest with Jordy Nelson back from injury and Jared Cook newly signed to take the top off.
TJ Yeldon’s value has been on the slide since Chris Ivory signed with the Jaguars. Ivory is the presumed thumper with receiving ability to boot, but Yeldon is younger and excels in the passing game while being serviceable on run plays. The most likely game script for this game will be high scoring with Jacksonville trying to play catch up. Keep an eye on Yeldon’s usage based on game script. A high target share for the running back position will be telling of his value going forward, as will his snap count in hurry up situations. Any rushes in the red zone will be gravy and a good indicator that this is more of an even backfield than originally thought.
San Diego at Kansas City
The game script is likely to be in the Chiefs favor for this contest, meaning target share for San Diego’s wide receivers will be indicative of future usage. If the Chargers are playing catch up as projected, look for Travis Benjamin’s targets to project his value. He has deep speed and Philip Rivers is known to love his deep ball. A few deep targets for Benjamin are to be expected, but will he see more usage in other facets of the offense? I would like to see him run and be targeted on a variety of routes at multiple depths of target. If he can get truly involved in the game and we can project 110+ targets for the season, his dynasty value will be pointing upward.
With Jamaal Charles not yet all the way back from injury, Spencer Ware has his future value squarely in the crosshairs. The Chargers have a lackluster run defense and the game script should lead to increased rushing opportunities for the Chiefs. Look for touches in the backfield compared to Charcandrick West to determine if Ware has the look of a future bellcow or if he is simply a stand in. If Ware gets goal line rushes as well as targets in this game, his value could see a long term boost as the presumed successor to Charles, potentially as soon as this year.
Chicago at Houston
After Jordan Howard finally turned in a respectable performance in preseason week four, it will be prudent to keep an eye on Jeremy Langford in week one. The game script projects to go in Houston’s favor, so Langford should stand to collect targets out of the backfield. Keep an eye on if he converts these opportunities after a low catch rate in 2015. Another important thing to check in on will be how many red zone and goal line touches he receives, as his value could go down if he won’t receive many touchdown opportunities.
My eyes will turn to the Texans defense and Jadeveon Clowney. After turning in a solid finish to 2015, Clowney will need to make an impact for the defense with JJ Watt having spent the off-season injured. Watt should return for week one, but Clowney really needs to turn into what he can be for this defense to click. If Watt and Clowney are both on the field and healthy this season, they could force quite a few fades on the offensive side of the ball.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Austin Seferian-Jenkins has had a roller coaster this off-season. His stat line in this game might somehow be the least important factor in his value going forward. Look at this game to see if ASJ made any knuckleheaded plays, fought with his teammates or coaches, or got benched at some point for any reason. His snap count compared to Cameron Brate will also be important. With his level of theoretical talent, he needs to get his head screwed on straight and take advantage of his opportunities, or the team will move on from him like they did Kenny Bell.
The Falcons hope to have found a solution for a starter opposite Julio Jones in Mohamed Sanu. If Sanu can gather in a meaningful target share and convert those opportunities into actual production, look for his value to rise in what should be a high octane offense once again. Keep expectations in check, though, as the second receiver in Kyle Shanahan offenses tends to have limited upside.
Minnesota at Tennessee
Somehow, some way, Charles Johnson projects to start in week one and might actually be a thing again. After a strong off-season he is keeping highly touted rookie Laquon Treadwell out of a starting role and if he can turn in solid on-field production, things might stay that way for a while. At the nice low price of relatively free, his performance in this game could indicate he is worth a buy.
How legitimate is Tajae Sharpe? He looked golden this preseason after consistently beating out more heralded competition. The Vikings sport a stout defense with some heavyweights at all levels. If Sharpe can succeed not only as a rookie in his first game, but also against the Vikings defense, he will deserving of a value bump. The biggest knocks on him at that point would be likely target share going forward being depressed by Delanie Walker’s target hogging ways, and the relatively low passing volume of the Titans offense.
Buffalo at Baltimore
What will the workload look like for LeSean McCoy? After signing a monster contract last year, he faced injury and competition from now released Karlos Williams. With Williams out of the picture and less competition, I want to see if McCoy can net a large workload again and stay healthy. If he can, his value might be on the rise as he is still pretty much at the top of the hill and not over it for running back projected production by age.
With so many injured Ravens returning, there is only one that I think we can really glean anything from in week one. The wide receiver, tight end, and running back positions are all a muddled mess that may take months to shake out. Quarterback, however, has Joe Flacco, also returning from injury, and then journeyman Ryan Mallet behind him. That’s not inspiring of confidence in the event Flacco isn’t back to form. If he isn’t back to form or somehow gets injured, I’m downgrading the value of all Ravens for 2016, and it will make evaluation for the future more difficult.
Cincinnati at New York (Jets)
My eyes will be on rookie Tyler Boyd in week one. With AJ Green facing off against an aging Darrelle Revis and likely still commanding double coverage beyond that, Boyd should have the opportunity to get open in this contest. I want to see if Dalton trusts him and if he can actually get open and make catches against regular season NFL defensive concepts. With Tyler Eifert out, the opportunity to carve out a meaningful chunk of this offense early is present, and early returns could lead to a value increase.
This team ran through Brandon Marshall in 2015. While Marshall played amazing football last year at age 31, father time is undefeated and cliffs can come both rapidly and at any time after age 30 for wide receivers. In his case, I’m fairly confident that he is still elite in his age 32 season; however, I would love to see that on the field to confirm he is worthy of that elite status and price tag. If he looks to have lost a step, I always like to err on the side of bailing early rather than netting no value. Keep in mind he has been battling hip injuries for years now and that will eventually catch up with him even if the rest of his body and game is solid.
Late Games
Miami at Seattle
Aging and seemingly always injured, Arian Foster finds himself once again an apparent feature back. Word as of this writing is that Jay Ajayi won’t even suit up for this game, meaning that if Foster can carry the load and somehow stay healthy, he could turn out to be a league winner at a majorly discounted price. The odd thing about this narrative is that it is Jay Ajayi who could stand to see his value spike the most of almost any fantasy player in week one should Arian Foster go down with an injury. Given his recept propensity for injuries, I’m not ruling out that possibility.
#TheAwakening is apparently a thing, and Christine Michael somehow finds himself a starter for the Seahawks while Thomas Rawls is getting back into game shape after injury, Marshawn Lynch is retired, CJ Prosise has also been injured, and Alex Collins looked ineffective this preseason. I’m not even sure how we got to this point, but if he explodes the Seahawks will have a hard time putting the genie back in the bottle. Honestly, this isn’t even about usage. Just check the box score and you’ll know the story after this game with CMike if you don’t watch it.
Detroit at Indianapolis
When Marvin Jones signed with Detroit, everyone seems to have assumed that Golden Tate would step right into the WR1 role. I’ve hedged against that bet and acquired Jones as often as able, and will be nervously biting my nails watching this game to see if he will receive a high target share. If he emerges from week one with a 25%+ target share for the Lions as well as a few red zone targets, he is another player that will be looking a value spike squarely in the eye.
With Coby Fleener leaving for the Saints this offseason, Dwayne Allen should soak up tight end targets from Andrew Luck. Add in that two of the team’s top three wide receivers are small in stature and therefore may struggle to be effective red zone targets and that the lead running back is borderline ancient by NFL standards, and Allen has truly massive touchdown upside in addition to decent target and yardage potential. Keep an eye on how many targets Allen sees in the open field and how he is used in the red zone. If he checks both boxes, he will scream up my tight end rankings.
New York (Giants) at Dallas
Sterling Shepard is projected to start opposite Odell Beckham, Jr. in all sets, but what does that mean for fantasy purposes? Billed as a polished receiver ready to make an immediate impact, I want to see him actually accomplish that lest he remind the fantasy community of Nelson Agholor circa 2015. The Giants passing offense looked very shaky in the preseason, keep an eye on if that gets turned around or not. Shepard could have two knocks on him after this game if the passing offense looks rough and he isn’t showing the level of polish expected. He could be a nice buy low opportunity in the near future if both parts are against him and his owner is getting nervous.
Arguably, no player stands to gain or lose more value in week one than Dak Prescott, the rookie quarterback for the Cowboys. With Tony Romo both aging and apparently increasingly injury prone, the quarterback of the future in Dallas is up for grabs. With an elite offensive line, an elite red zone weapon in Dez Bryant, a presumably elite running back in Ezekiel Elliot, the supporting cast is present for a Dallas quarterback to be of immense value. What will be telling is if Dak is learning how to progress through his reads, look off defenders, and read defenses. This will be his first shot at a non-vanilla defense and all bets are off.
Sunday Night
New England at Arizona
Jimmy Garoppolo almost feels like a cop out choice for the Patriots, but he is decidedly my choice here. While Tom Brady played at a high level last year, quarterback decline tends to be sharp and brutal once it hits. Recent examples of older quarterbacks to play at elite levels and then fall off the fantasy map within a year or two are Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. When and if Brady stops producing, it would be prudent to have a leg up on his replacement. If Garoppolo can man this offense effectively while missing Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, and playing against the Cardinals on the road… sign me up.
For the Cardinals, Michael Floyd needs to keep to his late season form from 2015 in order to maintain or increase his value. Larry Fitzgerald still has juice, but he won’t forever and John Brown is coming off of a nasty concussion this preseason. Big time players step up when they need to, and Floyd is at a pivot point where he really needs to step up consistently, or forever lose value.
Monday Night
Pittsburgh at Washington
For the Steelers, Jesse James is the man I have my eye on. When Ladarius Green signed a big contract this offseason to fill the void left by Heath Miller, Jesse James was left for dead in fantasy circles. Seemingly perpetually injured, Green now won’t even suit up for the season opener and James suddenly has a shot to parlay opportunity into a more defined long term role. He is still only a target in deeper or TE premium leagues, but that could change if he can turn into a red zone factor.
I will be intently watching Jamison Crowder on Monday night. Prior to his first publication, DLF’s own Brian Malone put some data together showing that rookie receivers with 50+ receptions tend to have better careers than those that don’t, and he checks that box. With the team drafting Josh Doctson, and DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed slated to dominate target share, I want to see where Crowder fits in. His skill set is good and if he can build more rapport with Kirk Cousins he should see his value rise in the near future.
Los Angeles at San Francisco
For a team seemingly perpetually devoid of talent at wide receiver, the Rams may be onto something with Tavon Austin, whom they recently signed to an extension. While his reception total and receiving yardage left something to be desired in 2015, he bolstered that production with an absurd rushing total for a wide receiver and elite red zone chops for someone of his stature. He appears to be one of the rare “gadget” players that actually turn in meaningful fantasy production. If he continues to be relatively heavily involved in this offense, he should see a value uptick with theoretically better quarterback play coming his way in the near future.
For all of the off-season hubbub about Torrey Smith, I really want to see what Quinton Patton can do. He is the lost man in this offensive narrative and his value could rapidly ascend. The overall output of this offense is sure to be low compared to league average, however, so proceed with caution.
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- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 15 - December 17, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 14 - December 10, 2017
- Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13 - December 3, 2017
