The DLF Mailbag

Jaron Foster Posted On September 5, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and we may answer them in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2) Help us help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements, PPR or non-PPR, etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. I recently dealt Mark Ingram for Donte Moncrief. I needed another WR and I am really high on Moncrief. Was this a bit of a reach or do you think the value is there? I have Marshall, Cobb and Gronk but not a lot of depth on the bench as far as pass catchers go.

Doug in Alberta, Canada

(12 teams, PPR, IDP, 1QB 1RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex)

Doug, although relative to the DLF ranking consensuses on Mark Ingram (he is my RB5 and the RB8 overall) and lower on Donte Moncrief (my WR23 versus WR21 overall), I see this as a good value for you. While projected career longevity tends to be overblown when valuing dynasty assets, the 23-year-old Moncrief has shown talent on the field and took a big step forward in 2015 despite a down season for the offense overall.

On the other side of the trade, Ingram has a high floor as a running back who has successfully added pass-catching to his on-field repertoire as one of the true three-down backs in the NFL. Still, he will be turning 27 this season and has never logged 1,000 yards rushing in a season due to his inability to stay on the field consistently.

The other factor in play is that you are only required to start one running back, and can only play up to two, so depending on the other running backs on your roster you may have found Ingram as a flex option at best. If I have another reliable starting running back, I’d opt for the young wide receiver with high upside.

2. I’ve already made a bad trade in my TD heavy scoring Dynasty League, accepting a trade the meat of which was Ladarius Green for a late 1st rounder. I may be able to re-coup some value though. I’ve been offered Eli Manning and a mid-2nd for Mathew Stafford and Ladarius Green. Thoughts?

Chris in Ohio

(12 teams, No PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex)

Chris, before addressing your question it is worth noting that unless you traded for Ladarius Green after the retirement talk surfaced, a late first was not an overpay. In July ADP, for example, Green was going between the 12th and 13th rookies (CJ Prosise and Devontae Booker, respectively). While he hadn’t exactly broken out statistically, in 2015 Green surpassed his total receptions and touchdowns for the prior two seasons combined. In line to replace the retired Heath Miller, Green was a worthwhile acquisition for the price of a late first in a less-than-inspiring rookie draft.

Regarding the attempt to recoup some value, this deal hinges on how you feel about the quarterbacks. Assuming you have had your rookie draft already and are referring to next year’s pick, straight-up I’d easily deal Green for a 2017 mid second. Some owners were even surprisingly (and ridiculously) trading late-2016 firsts for random 2017 seconds this summer, but I digress.

While I am one of only three DLF rankers to do so, preferring Manning to Stafford makes this deal a relatively easily accept for me. Though only marginally, Manning outscored Stafford in 2015, and has actually been trending up in passer rating, touchdown-to-interception ratio, attempts and yards passing each season since 2013. Conversely, while Stafford had his strongest season since 2011, his attempts and yards passing have decreased each year since 2012. Losing Calvin Johnson, who was durable despite popular opinion to the contrary with only nine games missed in nine seasons, won’t help.

Opinions on the quarterbacks aside, we aren’t talking about elite options here. Eli Manning was the QB8 in standard scoring on MyFantasyLeague in 2015 while Matthew Stafford was tenth. Though low-end QB1s, this type of production will be replaceable and I’d rather have the guy throwing to Odell Beckham, Jr. and Sterling Shepard the next couple of seasons.

3. I was offered Amari Cooper, Andrew Luck and Devante Parker for Julio Jones, Jameis Winston, and a 2017 1st (which is top-6 pick). I am torn about the trade because I have Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins as my WRs as well:

QB Winston, Palmer
WR Julio, Hopkins, Jeffery, K Allen
RB Martin, Melvin, Sims, Woodhead
TE Gronkowski

Daniel in PA

(12 teams, PPR, 1QB 2WR 2RB 1TE 1Flex)

Daniel, wow. There is so much going on here. The format is fairly standard with starting one quarterback and two-three wide receivers, so that is a non-factor though it’s often my first consideration when evaluating a trade. Other important variables are 1) roster size (a shallow bench in this case), and 2) current team construction: about average in terms of age, solid longevity at wide receiver, proven production, and some concern with the health of your wide receiver depth.

With all of these in mind, you can only start up to three wide receivers. Would you rather have Julio Jones and choose two of DeAndre Hopkins/Alshon Jeffery/Keenan Allen, or every week choose three from Hopkins/Jeffery/Allen and Amari Cooper/DeVante Parker? I’d prefer to have the stud in Julio, not to mention you’d have to drop a player (Carson Palmer or Danny Woodhead) to make the trade now and open a spot for a high-risk, high-reward player in Parker.

At quarterback, Andrew Luck is undoubtedly a top-three dynasty quarterback (and arguably the top option). Even so, in his best season to date (2014) Luck averaged about 26 points per game in standard MyFantasyLeague scoring. Comparatively, Jameis Winston scored over 20 points per game in his rookie season. With a likely uptick in production as Winston acclimates to the league, the difference in fantasy points between these quarterbacks is likely to be less than the difference between Julio and whichever player you replace him with.

For the last part of the deal, I’d prefer Parker over the top six pick unless you know (and you won’t definitively) that it will be a top two pick. That said, Parker loses some value in this format given the starting requirements and shallow bench, and detractors point to a new coaching regime that has consistently used Kenny Stills ahead of him in the preseason. Parker is the far superior player, but the risk is there and is enough for me to hold onto Julio and hope for a stud rookie running back in a start-two RB league.

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Jaron Foster

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A data analyst by profession, Jaron has been writing for DLF since 2012. Native New Englanders, Jaron and his wife are introducing their son (2010) and daughter (2014) to the Patriots. You can regularly find him on Twitter and in the DLF Forum at odd hours.