DLF’s 2016 Predictions: Most Overvalued Player

Most rookie drafts are in the rearview mirror, and the NFL Preseason is winding down. We’re all busy combing the news sites trying to keep abreast of all the important developments as we prepare for the best time of the year, the NFL season.  That can only mean one thing – it’s time for us to put a bow on those reams of off-season content with DLF’s 2016 Fantasy Predictions. As we did last year, we have eight different prediction articles for you in the following categories:

• Fantasy MVP
• Fantasy Rookie of the Year
• Most Overvalued Dynasty Player
• Most Undervalued Dynasty Player
• Fantasy Sleeper
• Best Dynasty Buy
• Best Dynasty Sell
• Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

Today we have our staff picks for this year’s Most Overvalued Dynasty Player, and we’ll drop a new article each day leading up to the first day of the season. Let’s get to it.

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Kevin White, WR CHI

This is all about cost, and I’d have a really hard time investing a second-round startup pick in White, which is his current ADP. White was incredibly raw coming out of West Virginia, had just one productive college season and didn’t play a single snap last year. He’s being valued as if he played last year and played well. Wideouts taken that highly in the NFL Draft rarely bust, but there are a plethora of other options in that rage I’d prefer — Randall Cobb, Donte Moncrief, Jarvis Landry and Jordan Matthews, to name a few — than to roll the dice so early on an unproven asset. – Austan Kas

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR PHI

He flashed late in the year, but even as a prospect DGB had all of the red flags I like to avoid.  I own zero shares and if I did have any, I would cash out while his value is still high. – Trevor Bucher

Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN

I may catch a lot of heat for this one, but Laquon Treadwell shouldn’t have an ADP of 26 in leagues right now. He may turn out to be very good down the road, but we haven’t seen him prove that on the field and he hasn’t looked great in camp thus far. I’ll take players ranked around him or lower like Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kelvin Benjamin and others ahead of him without much hesitation. – Ken Kelly

Donte Moncrief, WR IND

With an August ADP of 21.67 (identical to TY Hilton), Moncrief is essentially priced at his upside, despite the fact that he will see competition for targets with the re-signed Dwayne Allen and last year’s first round pick Phillip Dorsett. – Jarrett Behar

Allen Robinson, WR JAX

RIP me in the comments, but stick with me here. At his current price, I think Robinson is overvalued. Do I think he deserves to be a first rounder in a startup? Absolutely, but top five is too high. I don’t want to say the word regression, so I won’t, but that offense is going to look very different. I think the key thing is actually their much, much improved defense keeping them in games and not needing to throw 600 times. – Adam Tzikas

Tyler Lockett, WR SEA

I like Lockett and I would gladly take him on my team but there is no freaking way I am drafting him at his current ADP. He’s not going to be a got-to receiver on that team. It’s too much of a “spread the wealth” offense for me. Honorable mention: Devonta Freeman. – Eric Olinger

Jordy Nelson, WR GB

A 31 year old wide receiver coming off of a serious injury and is now reportedly dealing with another knee injury brings a lot of risk for a player with a third round ADP. If you want a win now receiver, there are safer options such as Jeremy Maclin and Brandon Marshall, or cheaper veteran wide receivers like Julian Edelman. – Andrew Lightner

Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

His value can’t get much higher as he’s currently being drafted in the first round in a lot of startup drafts. There’s a chance his alleged character concerns could result into bigger issues down the road, which could deliver a colossal hit to fantasy value. Right now, if you were to trade him, you could cash out for a top ten dynasty receiver. – Bruce Matson

David Johnson, RB ARI

David Johnson is the same age as Le’Veon Bell but has surpassed him in ADP to become the dynasty RB3 and the 15th player overall off the board in startups. I just can’t buy in at a price more expensive than Bell and wide receivers like Alshon Jeffery and Brandin Cooks. – Matt Price

Kevin White, WR CHI

I don’t dislike White at all.  I am actually intrigued by his value in redraft.  However, he is currently sitting at 23 in DLF’s Dynasty ADP and a top two round price tag is far too rich for my blood for a second year player who has missed an entire season of football and only had one year of collegiate production.  He is going right ahead of Randall Cobb, a guy whom I’d take every time over White.  Kelvin Benjamin is a close second with an ADP of 30 but most likely everyone will pile on him in this piece. – Rob Leath

Todd Gurley, RB LA

This take has nothing to do with Gurley’s ability, and it has everything to do with his situation. Jeff Fisher doesn’t let us have any nice things, including the Rams offense. Gurley is the only bright spot of that offense, but has very limited PPR upside (again, not based on ability). Mid first round ADP is far too expensive for a back that isn’t going to catch many balls, and happens to be in (arguably) the worst offense in the NFL. – Dan Sainio

Kevin White, WR CHI

He hasn’t played a snap yet, but he’s going in the top 25 picks in a lot of startups. He was always a risk and he hasn’t done anything to ease those concerns. As a Bears fan I hope I’m wrong, but his price tag is way too high right now. – Jacob Feldman

DeVante Parker, WR MIA

Since I already had Tyler Lockett as my most overvalued in our DLF column last month, I figured I’d throw out another one. As with Lockett, volume is a big concern of mine. Jarvis Landry is locked in as Ryan Tannehill’s top target. Let’s say all of the departed Rishard Matthews’ targets go to Parker (generous, I know.) Plus let’s say he retains all of his own targets (generous, I know). That gives him 112 total targets, but let’s just give him 120. His catch rate last year was 50% but let’s bump it up to 60% (generous, I know.) This gives him 72 catches. Even if we give Parker a healthy 15 YPR (on par with AJ Green), that puts him at 1,080 yards. I truly feel that all of this is a generous assumption. Even with that generosity and throwing in eight touchdowns (which would be 33% of Tannehill’s 2015 TD share,) he would have finished as a low-end WR2 in 2015. You’re paying for Parker’s ceiling and to me, that’s a bad investment. – Izzy Elkaffas

C.J. Anderson, RB DEN

I started to put Dion Lewis in this category, but then the news broke this past weekend that he will be on the shelf awhile longer to start the year.  When it comes to CJ Anderson it isn’t that I don’t think he will have the opportunity to have a great season, but rather that he won’t capitalize on it.  Denver is set up to run, run and run this year with the quarterback position being questionable and the defense being so strong.  Devontae Booker is another factor that will eat into some of Anderson’s success.  Last year CJ had to fight off Ronnie Hillman for touches, but this year he has a true competitor to fend off in Booker. – Carla Gruse

Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN

Treadwell has been overvalued for a long time now. He was the top receiver recruit and the hype has followed, despite not great results. He didn’t dominate in college and the combine revealed a below average athlete. He then went to a situation with a game manager at quarterback and to top it all off he hasn’t looked great in camp. – Nick Whalen

Greg Olsen, TE CAR

Looking at August ADP (and ignoring the obvious like Dorial Green-Beckham), values are pretty tight right now. One guy I won’t touch is Greg Olsen. With Kelvin Benjamin returning and the Panthers offense coming off a huge season, Olsen is looking at a smaller piece of a smaller pie. That makes him a 31-year-old mid-TE1, not worthy of a pick in the seventh round. – Brian Malone

Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

He has had two seasons where he played 16 games and two seasons where he played in a little more than half. In those two full seasons, he has caught 174 passes for 2,554 yards and 17 touchdowns. Those are very respectful numbers for a low number one or a high number two receiver. Things have changed since those seasons, however. We have no idea what Kevin White can do, and Martellus Bennett left for New England. Zach Miller may be serviceable but he’s hardly respected. His health is also a cause for concern and, lastly, he has Jay Cutler throwing him the ball. – Mike Valverde

A.J. Green, WR CIN

This was probably the easiest choice for me. Green scored over 15.2 fantasy points in only six out of sixteen games last season. For comparison sake, Julio Jones did it fourteen times, and Brandon Marshall did it eleven times. Desean Jackson is discounted heavily because of his label as a boom or bust player. Considering how much owners are relying on him as a week to week WR1, why doesn’t A.J. carry that label? – Adam Bendzick

Donte Moncrief, WR IND

What do Eric Decker, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, Allen Hurns and Marvin Jones have in common? Answer: each have a redraft ADP higher than Donte Moncrief. In dynasty you would expect Moncrief’s ADP to be higher than in redraft, which it is at WR 15. However seeing Moncrief listed one spot behind Demaryius Thomas, and ahead of studs like Jarvis Landry and his own teammate T.Y. Hilton is ridiculous. I get the reason for optimism, and I would love to own him for those same reasons. But I need to see it before I move him ahead of these young players with such well-established track records. – Mo Brewington

Here’s how the Most Overvalued Dynasty Player picks broke down:

• Kevin White (3 votes)
• Donte Moncrief (2 votes)
• Laquon Treadwell (2 votes)
• C.J. Anderson (1 vote)
• Ezekiel Elliott (1 vote)
• A.J. Green (1 vote)
• Dorial Green-Beckham (1 vote)
• Todd Gurley (1 vote)
• Alshon Jeffery (1 vote)
• David Johnson (1 vote)
• Tyler Lockett (1 vote)
• Jordy Nelson (1 vote)
• Greg Olsen (1 vote)
• DeVante Parker (1 vote)
• Allen Robinson (1 vote)

Where both the Fantasy MVP and Fantasy Rookie of the Year were top heavy with many common picks, this is a whole different story. Kevin White is the leading pick, but by a slim margin. I can certainly see the call there, as he’s a player that has yet to take a meaningful snap in the NFL. Breshad Perriman is in the same boat, but his value isn’t nearly as high as White. I think the biggest “moon shot” call here has to be Adam with his pick of the dynasty darling Arob. If we see significant touchdown regression from Arob, I can see that being a solid choice here.

If it were my call, I think I’d be going with DeVante Parker. It’s a crowded situation in Miami, and though I believe Parker has loads of talent, I’m not sure Tannehill has the arm to get the most out of him.

So what about you? Who is this year’s Most Overvalued Player?

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