Rookie Profile – Roger Lewis, WR Bowling Green

Courtesy of www.PlayerProfiler.com

In case you haven’t already noticed, when it comes to drafting, I like to find the diamonds in the rough. I’ve long admired the way the New England Patriots always seem to find talent lurking in the later rounds of the NFL Draft, and I do my best to mimic this in my dynasty league rookie drafts. When you finish year in and year out at the top of the standings in your league, you will find yourself year after year picking later in your rookie drafts than your contemporaries. So, unless you opt to completely change the fabric of your team by making a blockbuster trade to move up in the draft, it’s vital to your continued success that you scout those players projected to be drafted later in your rookie draft. Besides, if you won your league last year, or finished near the top, chances are you aren’t looking to blow up your roster moving into next season. This means you should get to know the players who will be taken in the middle-rounds of the NFL Draft, so you are well prepared to get the jump on your league mates, picking those “sleepers” who fell into perfect situations and could help you sustain your supremacy.

One of those diamonds lurking in the rough this year is Roger Lewis, wide receiver out of Bowling Green State University.

Before we get into reviewing his strengths, weaknesses, potential landing spots, and a complete analysis of this stud from the MAC, check out this highlight video of my boy doing work (disregard his Gucci workout goggles):

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Strengths

First and foremost, the kid has exceptional hands. He has great breakaway speed that is faster on film than his stopwatch recorded time at the NFL Combine. You can say what you want about his competition playing in the MAC. He, like Corey Davis out of Western Michigan University, looked like a man amongst boys in 2015 MAC conference play, and I have absolutely no concerns about his transition to the NFL. What I quite possibly like most about Lewis is that he is a fierce competitor who has had to really work for everything he’s achieved, and he plays with a chip on his shoulder. He played his high school ball for Pickerington Central in Ohio, and was originally committed to play for Ohio State. Were it not for very serious legal troubles he found himself caught up in, I believe his draft pedigree would be on par with Devin Smith. Instead, Lewis wound up attending Bowling Green State University where he was all-conference as a freshman, and improved steadily each and every season at the collegiate level. He’s matured, and hasn’t been in trouble since he faced trial as a senior in high school, and finished his amateur athletic career as a semi-finalist for the Biletnikoff Award.

If you have watched the highlight reel I shared above, then you have at least some idea of the extent to which Lewis jumps off the tape. Sure, the highlight reel is 12 minutes long, but every second of on-the-field footage included is worth watching. Football analysts like to use the word “explosive” so much that it’s become rather cliché in this industry, but Roger Lewis truly embodies that adjective, and is one of the more explosive players in this draft class. Just watch him burn the secondary once he has the ball in his hands. He has the rare ability to ratchet it up to another, almost primal gear when he’s in the open field, and he has a nose for pay dirt. Interested in embarking upon an impossible mission? Go find a time you see him in the open field breaking away toward to the end zone where Lewis is caught from behind by a defensive back; it doesn’t happen.

I’ve found several NFL Draft analysts’ reports on Lewis rather comedic thus far, and I’m sure the team that winds up taking him at a discount in the NFL Draft (and fantasy owners who select him in the later rounds of rookie drafts) will be elated as the beneficiaries of their unfounded analysis. Despite reports I’ve read to the contrary, Roger Lewis burned secondaries throughout college like a pro, catches the ball superbly in traffic with defenders draped on him, and exhibits tremendous footwork after the catch. As a guy who spent some time playing centerfield back in my day, one thing I often look for in receivers is their innate ability to find the ball in the air. It’s a skill you either have or you don’t, and Lewis has it. On top of his ability to locate and track the ball on the fly, he isn’t afraid to work the middle of the field, and can go up and high point the ball better than most receivers his height. Though he plays the sidelines extremely well, I think the middle of the field will likely be where his bread is buttered at the NFL level.

Weaknesses

So, we’ve established that I’m enamored with Lewis’ abilities and the potential I see in him to expand his talents at the NFL level due to his skills, work ethic, and competitive nature. But, that doesn’t mean he’s without weaknesses. In fact, I find his lack of strength a tad unsettling, and I believe he will need to improve his strength quite a bit if he is ever to become an elite receiver at the next level. For a guy of Lewis’ stature, strength plays a very important role when it comes to beating press coverage, and he will certainly need to muscle up a bit if he wants to showcase his skills at the next level. Fortunately for Lewis, and those who will own his shares in 2016 and beyond, the National Football League provides a bounty of resources solely aimed at helping its young talent improve. For a hard worker like Lewis, you can rest assured he’ll be spending countless hours focused on strength training, so I believe it’s just a matter of time before he’s blowing past press coverage at the next level and making them pay.

His workout numbers do leave a bit to be desired when it comes to speed. He clocked a 4.57 in his 40-yard-dash at the NFL Combine, and standing at 6’0” tall, that’s not what you hope to see. However, when you note that Julian Edelman (5’10”) ran a 4.52, DeAndre Hopkins (6’1”) ran a 4.57, Keenan Allen (6’2”) ran a 4.71, and Hakeem Nicks (6’1”) ran a 4.63 at their respective NFL Combine workouts, it becomes far easier to stomach. Running a 4.57 40-yard-dash does not make you slow by any stretch of the imagination, and while he might not be the next coming of Tavon Austin, that might not be a bad thing.

It is actually one of Lewis’ strengths I worry could ultimately become a “weakness” depending upon how his new team wishes to use him. My one legitimate concern for Lewis going into his rookie campaign is that the team who drafts him sees his exceptional maneuverability, and makes him their returner. Though there have been a handful of receivers who have doubled as return men and been very successful at both, it obviously opens the player up to a greater possibility of being injured, and returning can take a toll—just ask Ameer Abdullah.

Best Potential Landing Spots

1. Cleveland Browns

Unless Josh Gordon is reinstated, the wide receivers on the Browns’ depth chart going into the 2016 NFL Season are Andrew Hawkins, Brian Hartline, Taylor Gabriel, Marlon Moore, and Terrelle Pryor. I’m still intrigued by Pryor’s athleticism and potential, but all it takes is minimal familiarity with the NFL to realize that the above list of receivers is a disastrous offensive season waiting to happen. Of course, you have to love what you saw from Gary Barnidge last season, but the guy will be 31 in September, and I couldn’t even tell you the last time an NFL player broke out during his age-30 season and then remained a dominant force in the league. So, I’m not sure we can expect Barnidge to perform like an elite tight end again in 2016-and-beyond. I do expect Barnidge to be a decent option for Robert Griffin III and Duke Johnson to be a dynamic pass catching option out of the backfield, but let’s face it, the Browns need more pass catchers. Roger Lewis would be a great fit for them given his elite playmaking ability, and the fact that he’s being greatly undervalued by NFL scouts would make him a great value in the draft. The Browns have plenty of draft picks after their trade with the Eagles, and it would behoove them to add Lewis with one of those picks. Should Gordon return to the team this year, he’ll draw a lot of attention from opposing defenses, which would open things up even more for Lewis. Finally, it’s worth mentioning that Lewis played his high school and college ball right in the Browns’ backyard, and I think playing so close to home would help make his transition to the league a seamless one.

Landing Spot Grade: A

2. Houston Texans

There might not be a better receiver in the league than DeAndre “Nuk” Hopkins. Just look at what he did last year and who he did it with. That said, the Texans are pretty thin at the receiver position, and I have not been impressed with Jaelen Strong or Keith Mumphery. Cecil Shorts seems like he’s injured more than he’s not, and Houston needs another playmaking receiver. I think a guy like Lewis could benefit greatly from all the attention Nuk commands, and Lewis’ hands and route running would bode well for Brock Osweiler’s first season as the Texans’ quarterback.

Landing Spot Grade: A-

3. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals would be a good landing spot for a receiver of Lewis’ skills. Cincinnati went out and acquired Brandon LaFell this off-season, but he turns 30 this November aside from 2014 with the Patriots, hasn’t ever really lived up to his potential. I’d be willing to wager an awful lot that the Bengals are looking to bolster their receiving corps in the upcoming NFL Draft. Though various mocks have the Bengals taking a receiver early in the NFL Draft, don’t be surprised if they address other needs (like defense), and take an under-heralded guy like Lewis later on. If Lewis is the first receiver taken by the Bengals, his sure-handedness and body control would make him a favorite option for Andy Dalton, and he would carve out a friendly role as the Bengals’ slot receiver and  the third option in their passing attack behind AJ Green and Tyler Eifert (excluding Giovani Bernard), burying LaFell in the depth chart. Given that the Bengals have grown accustomed to winning, have an established quarterback, and also play in his home state, Cincinnati would make a very interesting landing spot for Lewis.

Landing Spot Grade: B

4. New York Giants

The Giants need someone other than Odell Beckham Jr. to shoulder the load for Eli Manning, and an under-the-radar guy with the talent Lewis has could do wonders for their passing attack. I’m not sure how much Victor Cruz has left in the tank, but he’s no stranger to the underdog role having gone undrafted, and he would be a great mentor for Lewis. With Manning getting up in years, I’m not sure where this franchise turns in a couple of years, but I think Lewis would have a great deal of success playing underneath and opposite Odell Beckham in the Giants’ passing attack for the foreseeable future with Eli.

Landing Spot Grade: B

5. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams’ best receiver is Tavon Austin who isn’t exactly what I’d call a traditional WR1, and behind him they’re still waiting on Brian Quick to pop, and somehow still believe Kenny Britt is a talented NFL receiver. Don’t get me wrong; I don’t hate any of those guys, but they need help at the WR position. Quick is 6’4” and Britt is 6’3” so perhaps they look to add a possession receiver on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. If I’m right, I could see Lewis being their guy, and as I’ve been touting all along, he will exceed expectations at the next level. I’m not in love with Jeff Fisher when it comes to his offenses, and I’m not crazy about Jared Goff (if they do in fact select him first overall), but they are going to need a passing attack to complement what they have in Todd Gurley, and with what we’re all expecting to see from Gurley, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if their added balance on offense creates two productive pass catchers in 2016 and beyond.

Landing Spot Grade: B-

Honorable Mentions: Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins, Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots,

Worst Potential Landing Spots

Be it due to coaching, opportunity, or quarterback play, there are a number of places I do not want to see Lewis go. The worst places Lewis could land in the 2016 NFL Draft include Green Bay, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver, New York (Jets), and Philadelphia.

NFL/Dynasty Value and Analysis

In his first season with Bowling Green, Lewis caught 73 balls for 1,094 yards and seven touchdowns. Last season, he caught 85 passes for 1,544 yards and 16 touchdowns. I’ll admit it’s often difficult not to lose one’s self in the numbers surrounding the draft scouting process, but Lewis is being marginalized by scouts due to his size and speed, which tells me they aren’t paying enough attention to the film on this guy. It’s easy to find other players of Lewis’ stature and measurables who have gone on to big time success at the NFL level. One player his measurables compare very evenly with is the aforementioned DeAndre Hopkins; another is Julian Edelman. Now, I’m not saying Lewis is going to turn into the next Hopkins or quickly find himself the favorite target of a Hall of Fame quarterback, but I am telling you he is a much better player than his current Rookie Draft ADP (37) would lead you to believe. He’s being undervalued by NFL scouts and dynasty owners alike, and I’d consider it a steal if you’re able to land him in the third round of your rookie draft. Keep an eye on where he lands in the NFL Draft because if he winds up in a good situation, he might even be worth a reach. Of course, this is a somewhat deep draft class at the receiver position, and though there will certainly be better receivers than Lewis on the board, he will be a great player for you to target in the third-round of your rookie draft. And, when he’s raining down catches and scores as your WR3 in 2017, just remember, you heard it here first.

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