Poll-ier than Thou

Brian Malone Posted On April 4, 2016

There’s no such thing as a universal dynasty trade “market,”[1] but there is such a thing as consensus opinion on trades. The trouble is measuring that consensus. Average draft position gets us close, but it has warts. It overrates polarizing players.[2] And it provides only rankings, not prices. Is the gap between 1.01 and 1.02 greater or smaller than the gap between 2.06 and 2.11? ADP alone can’t answer that question – though historical production offers some clues.[3]

Voting on dynasty trades avoids both problems, but most votes involve only one trade. If we could get 100+ people to vote on 100+ trades, then we’d have something. Not everything, but something.

I enlisted Twitter and the DLF forums for help. You folks submitted thousands of votes evaluating hypothetical dynasty trades. Thanks to your hard work, I gathered enough data to create an incomplete, but useful price chart.

Before we get to the chart, let’s look at some of the more interesting results. Note that all trades are premised on a 12-team, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2Flex league with 0.5 PPR scoring.

Whatever you think David Johnson costs, add a first round pick to it.

A sneak preview of DLF’s April ADP shows that David Johnson is slotted 22 overall. But based on the trades poll, he’s easily a top-15 dynasty asset.

[1] Wisdom of the crowd: the dynasty “market”

[2] How average draft position inflates controversial players

[3] Trading during a startup draft: the historical value approach

dj poll

2016’s strain of rookie fever is weak.

In trades with rookies on only one side, the other side almost always won the poll. Consider this example:

bell trade poll

Le’Veon Bell is ranked 8-12 overall in both ADP and the polls: a stud, but not untouchable. In March, I expect a trade like this to be at least even, if not favoring the rookie picks. But not this season. Rookie picks are cheaper than they have been in years, and 28-year-old WR2s are fetching just as much as picks in the 1.06-1.08 range.

But rookie 1.01 is still worth a haul.

ADP pegs the presumptive rookie 1.01 at 18 overall, behind guys like Demaryius Thomas and Brandin Cooks. But voters value him notably higher.

dt trade poll

Indeed, this poll may understate rookie 1.01’s price. In a precursor poll, Thomas and DeVante Parker finished in a virtual dead heat:

dt dv poll

But voters heavily prefer rookie 1.01 to Parker, as illustrated by this poll (and others):

parker poll

In short, if you want to acquire rookie 1.01, your best bet is to draft it in a startup that includes rookie picks. Otherwise, expect to pay through the nose.

“Full” results

Enough pie charts; let’s look at some real numbers. Using the poll results, I made a price chart of every player and pick I could reasonably estimate. The chart is woefully incomplete, but I feel pretty good about the prices for the players — and especially the picks — listed. Notable omissions at the top include Amari Cooper and Alshon Jeffery. They weren’t in enough close votes to let me pin down their price.

Consider this a snapshot of the community’s consensus on a handful of players and rookie picks. Happy trading!

player list