Instant Dynasty Debate: Chris Johnson Joins the Cardinals
When news breaks, we typically provide an Instant Analysis piece telling you about the value changes for any and all parties involved. After the artist formerly known as CJ2k (Chris Johnson) signed with the Cardinals this afternoon, it surprisingly and immediately fueled a ton of debate within the team here at DLF. While some feel his addition really doesn’t mean much of anything, others feel it’s an indictment on the future value of Andre Ellington and possibly that of David Johnson as well. With all this in mind, we challenged ourselves to complete an Instant Debate instead of bringing you or typical Instant Analysis piece so you can enjoy the entertaining arguments.
Chris Johnson Signs in Arizona – It Matters
Ryan Finley
Hold on now, don’t run away screaming just yet.
Yes, Chris Johnson really let you down last year. He let Rex Ryan down, too. But Arizona has problems in the backfield with injuries to both Andre Ellington and David Johnson and there may be evidence of growing doubt in Arizona in regards to a lack of confidence in their running back stable. While some might argue Johnson is only there for depth, there are factors which point to this signing being about more than “a pair of camp legs.”
The first factor is the lack of depth in Arizona. Heck, some might argue they don’t have strength at the top of the depth chart, either. Last year’s dynasty darling (Ellington) only managed to prove he’s neither resilient nor reliable. He had some solid performances, but showed he will always be most productive with limited touches and may not be a good fit as an every down back. The third round rookie pick (David Johnson) was a metric marvel at the combine, but many have pointed out he essentially shares the same skill set of Ellington and does not project as an every down back, either. That leaves us with Marion Grice, Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor all likely currently fighting for a single roster spot at the end of the running back bench.
The second factor is Chris Johnson himself. If a team is looking for a warm body to soak up a few carries in camp or the preseason, they don’t sign a player like Johnson. Yes, his best days are certainly behind him and his 2,000 yard season is a long-fading memory. But he still managed to be relatively productive in a limited role with the Jets last year as he posted 4.3 yards per carry on 155 rushes. It was the first season Johnson failed to break 1,000 yards in seven NFL seasons, but it was also the first season he had fewer than 250 carries. If you look at Johnson’s production by year, it’s a little surprising he fell from grace so quickly:
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So, a top running back has one sub-1k season in a part-time role and he ends up on the scrap heap? There’s a fair-to-middling chance Johnson was thrown out a little too soon. While he has lost that blazing speed of his early career, he has managed to average over four yards per carry in all but one season in the NFL – a sterling number compared to last year’s Cardinals team that posted a meager 3.29 yards per carry average as a group.
The last factor comes from the mouth of Bruce Arians. Last week Arians said, “I am not pleased with the time (Andre) and David have lost and I was not fired up about the running backs’ performance on Saturday.” While we should surely ignore most preseason coach-speak (which tends to talk up certain players,) when a coach comes out as honestly as Arians did here, we have to listen. And when a coach sounds as unhappy as Arians, we have to take any moves made thereafter very seriously.
The Cardinals have a lack of depth in the backfield and that shallow bench has also been hampered by injuries. This are signs there may be doubt about the overall complexion of the backfield. While a team may sometimes sign players to scare the others into line, they rarely do so by signing a former pro-bowler like Chris Johnson. And however it looked last year, he may have something left in the tank – even if the dynasty community and the NFL largely left him for dead.
Chris Johnson Signs in Arizona – It Doesn’t Matter
Bruce Matson
It has been six years since Chris Johnson rushed for over 2,000 yards and earned the name CJ2K.
Last season in a crowded backfield with the New York Jets, Johnson was only able to churn out 663 total yards on the ground. During the last few seasons, Johnson’s skills has been slowly depreciating as he is getting ready to finish the last leg of his career. Simply put, he is no longer the back who gained 2,006 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and posted 14 touchdowns on 358 carries six seasons ago for the Tennessee Titans.
The Cardinals signed Johnson for depth, because both Andre Ellington and David Johnson were nursing hamstring injuries, but he does give the Cardinals an insurance policy, just in case another wave of injuries hits the running back corps. I’ll concede that much.
If I were Ellington, I wouldn’t be shaking in my boots from the thought of having to compete against Johnson in camp. The starting job is his to lose – if he continues to play at a high level and refrain from getting injured, he’ll be fine.
At this point in both of their careers, Ellington is the most talented running back of the two. Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians likes him. He wants to increase his workload because he loves his production. Ellington would have to royally mess up for him to lose touches to the newly signed Johnson. Johnson also only signed a one-year deal, so there’s a good chance he isn’t on the Cardinals’ roster after this season. Ellington’s long term value isn’t going to be affected by Johnson, either. His value could only drop if he plays poorly this season or experiences a decline in health and let’s be honest here, Johnson doesn’t have it in him anymore to be a lead back in the NFL.
I was never expecting David Johnson to fully contribute during the beginning of the season for Arizona. He’s a rookie and it usually takes time for rookies to contribute, but I’m expecting him to flash during the middle of the year. David Johnson is the most talented Johnson on the roster and the cream is going to rise to the top eventually. Chris Johnson isn’t going to impact his value and with David Johnson being a rookie, his value is going to be insulated for at least a season. The Cardinals spent a Top-100 pick on David Johnson selecting him in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft. They invested heavy capital in him and he will eventually get every opportunity to showcase what he can achieve.
I believe missing training camp is crucial for a rookie’s development and Arians has threatened not to play David Johnson in any games because he wouldn’t be ready. If he were to play too early, there’s a chance wouldn’t know his assignments well enough and his development would be hampered – I think Chris Johnson was brought in as insurance to make sure that doesn’t happen. The Cardinals simply can’t have an inexperienced running back who doesn’t know the play book inside-and-out backing up Ellington. Dynasty owners need to exhibit something very tough for them to have – patience.
Kerwynn Williams, Stepfan Taylor and Marion Grice still have a chance to make the team as well. None of these backs are world beaters, but they do possess qualities that present value to the team. Chris Johnson making the team isn’t a for sure thing as he must compete against the aforementioned backs to earn the coveted roster spot.
I project CJ2K getting a couple touches a game spelling Ellington and David Johnson. He won’t experience a full workload unless the injury bug hits the running back corps.
I only suggest picking Chris Johnson off waivers if you have deep rosters, or if you are in great need of a running back, but just don’t expect CJ2K production from him because this is 2015 and not 2009. I also don’t think this really affects the value of Andre Ellington or David Johnson in the least. If you can take advantage of an owner who believes otherwise, I’d suggest you do it.
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