32 Teams, 32 Questions: The AFC West
The season is here, which means we get to see all 32 teams doing something meaningful. We are taking a little trip around the league and looking at all 32 teams while we address one of the biggest questions about each team you need to be thinking about.
After all, in terms of dynasty leagues if you aren’t thinking about these things you’re already behind!
Previous editions
NFC North
NFC South
NFC East
NFC West
AFC North
AFC South
AFC East
Over the years the AFC West has been home to some of the best teams in the league. Back in the early days of the NFL, the Chiefs and Raiders were dominant while the Broncos came to life in the late 80s and 90s before coming back recently. Even the Chargers have had powerhouse teams in the early 2000s though they never seemed to have much playoff success. As we start the 2014 season, everyone except for the Raiders seem to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but they aren’t without their question marks for fantasy players.
Denver Broncos
Is Montee Ball going to be the real deal and a rock solid RB1 in fantasy leagues?
[inlinead]With Eric Decker in a Jets uniform and Wes Welker getting concussed and then suspended, there are some people who are going to be questioning the Denver passing game. I’m not one of them. Yes, Peyton Manning is going to regress a little bit from 2013, but he is still Peyton Manning. He still has two of his top targets and he is still arguably (though I think the argument against is getting weaker) the best quarterback to ever play the game. He’s going to be a top quarterback and the passing game will light up defenses once again. My questions come down to the running game.
Last year Knowshon Moreno shocked pretty much everyone by being the top dog in the Denver backfield and posting a top five finish in PPR leagues. It was shocking for many reasons, one of which was the presence of second round selection Montee Ball. Moreno’s role has made some question Ball and his ability level, but I think it was largely a function of Moreno being one of the best running backs in the league when it comes to pass protection while most rookies struggle with it. Either way, Moreno is now in Miami and Ball is going to get his chance. The question is if he can post Moreno-type numbers and be a top five running back in 2014 and beyond. The potential is definitely there with the offense.
One of the best ways to compare the two might be to look at the last part of the season and the playoffs. I’m going to start with December and go forward since that was when Ball started to see more meaningful playing time. Here is what we saw from them:
As you can see, Moreno was still clearly the lead back, especially on passing downs, but Ball did get a fair amount of work. Ball was the better rusher over the last part of the season and while he wasn’t overly productive in the passing game he showed us that he can be involved. Overall, I think Ball was very much on par with Moreno near the end of 2013. If you take away the nearly 60/40 split Denver was doing and give all of that work to one running back, you’re getting 169 attempts for 765 rushing yards, 45 receptions for another 360 yards and 5 touchdowns overall in eight games. Those are very easily RB1 numbers.
Don’t get too hyped up just yet, though. Denver isn’t going to give Ball every carry as we all know. CJ Anderson is lurking and Ronnie Hillman is still on roster. While I do expect them (mostly Anderson) to be involved, it won’t be nearly the 60/40 split Moreno and Ball had at the end of 2013. Even if it is an 80/20 split, that is still more than enough for Ball to be a top running back. Ball was built to carry the load and he showed time and time again what he can do in college.
I could go on and on about why I love Montee, but I already did that about a year and a half ago. He gave us a glimpse of what he can do at the end of 2013, and he’s poised to get people’s attention as Peyton’s lead guy in 2014.
Kansas City Chiefs
With Alex Smith locked in long-term, is he going to be able to take the Chiefs offense to the next level?
The Chiefs just committed $15 million a year to Alex Smith, locking him in as their starter until the 2018 season as a reward for the Chiefs’ 2013 season. This was only a little over a year after the 49ers shipped him out of town for a pair of second round picks. While it isn’t on par with what the franchise quarterbacks like Jay Cutler have been getting recently, it is still a pretty significant commitment and one that says they won’t be drafting a quarterback anytime soon. We know that Jamaal Charles is a beast no matter who is playing quarterback, but is Smith good enough to get the rest of the passing game back on track?
It seems crazy, but Smith has already been in the league for eight seasons. 2013 was easily the best of them. It was only the second time he went over 3000 yards passing and was the first time he had over 20 touchdowns. It was also only the second season in the last six where he played at least 15 games. Maybe it is just me, but that is a very short track record to go all in on a guy. By that account, Nick Foles should be signing his $15-20 million a year deal any day now.
Since one year isn’t nearly enough and Smith has hardly played a complete 16-game season, let’s try to see what Smith did during the average game over the last five seasons.
Keep in mind that 2009-2012 were in San Francisco while 2013 was in Kansas City. We can see a definite decline in 2011 and 2012 both in his usage and his production, which is what made the trade happen in the first place. You can also see that the 2013 season was very much in line with what Smith did in 2009 and 2010 on a per game basis, except that Smith was much better when it came to avoiding turnovers. Smith also managed to add a new element in 2013 to the turn of 76 rushes for 431 yards and a score.
Given the track record and the fact the supporting cast is almost identical, I would expect 2014 to be almost identical to 2013 in terms of Smith’s production. The passing production was very much in line with what we’ve seen out of Smith before. Could it be better than that? I guess it could be, but I wouldn’t count on it. Until the Chiefs actually get a quality receiving group, Smith will continue to rely on short, safe dump offs. I don’t see much hope for anything different than what we saw in 2013.
Oakland Raiders
Can we just delete all Raiders from fantasy websites or is there someone worth watching?
Yes, I was being a little facetious with the question, but not much. The Raiders are an absolute mess all over the place. They have the oldest roster in the league and are severely lacking when it comes to talent. It is the combination which is the exact opposite of what we look for in dynasty leagues. There are a few players we should still be watching, but none of them are prime targets right now.
For years, the highest prize on the Raiders from a fantasy perspective was Darren McFadden. Even though he has never played more than 13 games in a season and averaged 11 games per year, his per game productivity was enough to keep people optimistic. People, including the Raiders, are finally admitting what he is and realizing the 27 year old isn’t ever going to be the every down game changer. The presence of the 29-year old Maurice Jones-Drew caps McFadden’s upside to a low end RB2 but might help him to stay healthy for more than 13 games for the first time ever. Latavius Murray has some people hoping, but I don’t see much more than a poor man’s McFadden right down to the injury history.
In the passing game, it all starts with the quarterback who is… yeah, that’s a big part of the problem. Once again, the Raiders were without a definite starter at the most important position on the field entering training camp. Rookie Derek Carr is the only one worth mentioning and Oakland fans need to be hoping he is the guy. He has the skill set to be a starter in the NFL and would have probably been drafted a little higher if his last name wasn’t Carr. It is going to be a bumpy year, as it is with all rookie quarterbacks, but in a year or two he could emerge as the leader they desperately need in Oakland. He’s going to need some more talent around him, though.
When it comes to pass catchers, there might actually be a little bit of promise, though the upside on all of them is a little bit limited and unlikely to exceed WR3 value. Free agent signee James Jones is the likely leader of the group short term, but that might not mean much. At 30 years old, he isn’t going to be the long term answer and is unlikely to be the top target by the time a quarterback is ready to produce a fantasy starter. Rod Streater, Denarius Moore and Andre Holmes round out the depth chart, but it is tough to figure out who will separate from the pack. Streater probably has the highest floor, but also the lowest ceiling of the group while Holmes and Moore play similar roles as the deep threat. Holmes has the size you want while Moore has been much more consistent. I would rather have Moore at this point, but Holmes has a higher ceiling due to his size.
Overall, the Raiders need a major talent infusion over the next few years if Carr is going to stand a chance at turning the team around. Things aren’t looking good as there is little more than short term bye week fill ins and end of the roster fliers playing for the Raiders right now.
San Diego Chargers
Is Philip Rivers back or was 2013 just the perfect storm?
With all of the attention Rivers received for his 2013 season, it almost feels like people viewed him as a subpar quarterback prior to that. I don’t think people realize Rivers had four straight seasons with over 4,000 yards passing and at least 27 touchdowns from 2008-2011. His 2012 season was a little disappointing for a veteran with 3606 yards and “only” 26 touchdowns, but it was far from terrible. For whatever reason it sunk expectations of him and made his 2013 season a surprise for a lot of people.
If you look back at the last five or six years for Rivers, it is the 2012 season that stands out as the outlier not the 2013 season. The only item which is slightly surprising from the 2013 season was just how accurate Rivers was. He managed to complete 69.5 percent of his passes when his best season prior to that was 66 percent and his career average was 64.7 percent. A large share of the credit for the jump should go to Ken Whisenhunt’s scheme, but it isn’t the sole reason. Some places are making it sound like Whisenhunt raised Rivers from the dead, and that just isn’t true. Did it help? Yes, but I don’t expect a dramatic drop off with Whisenhunt gone.
A big reason I don’t expect much of a drop off is that the Chargers have a talented (though somewhat thin) offense around Rivers. I’m not sure if Keenan Allen can improve much on his 2013 numbers, but he is a very solid top option. The addition of Donald Brown as insurance at the running back position and Malcom Floyd coming back healthy combined with young guys like Ladarius Green progressing should help keep the options for Rivers open. The Chargers need to continue to add some depth to their pass catching positions, but Rivers is talented enough to once again post a line near 4,400 yards and 30 touchdowns with what they have. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking him as a solid option at the position.
That’s it for our trip around the NFL. All 32 teams with 32 questions that you need to be thinking about as you evaluate your dynasty lineups for this year and future years. Good luck this season!
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