32 Teams, 32 Questions: The NFC South
With preseason underway, we get to see all 32 teams doing something at least relatively meaningful. It also means there are only a few weeks left until the rosters and depth charts are set for the start of the season. We are going to take a little trip around the league, take a look at all 32 teams and address one of the biggest questions about each team that you need to be thinking about.
After all, in terms of dynasty leagues ,if you aren’t thinking about these things you’re already behind!
Previous editions
Right now it’s time to take a look at the NFC South. The question for three of the four teams is how are they going to fill the voids left by playmakers who are no longer there. Lots of opportunity for the right players in the NFC South. Who, if anyone, can step up?
Atlanta Falcons
Tony Gonzalez is gone while Steven Jackson isn’t getting any younger. Who is going to step up and take over?
There are some (like me) who think Atlanta missed their window to be a championship team. The 2013 Falcons possessed one of the best offenses in the league with Matt Ryan at the helm, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas at wide receiver, surefire hall of famer Gonzalez at tight end and Jackson in the backfield. Of course all of that was just on paper. It didn’t take very long into the season before the wheels started to come off this offensive juggernaut with one injury after another. Jackson missed some time once again, but the biggest blows were to their wide receivers with Jones missing most of the season and White missing the first games of his career, slamming the window shut on what was a prime opportunity for the dirty birds.
Gonzalez is now retired and his 83 receptions for 859 yards and eight touchdowns in 2013 are gone with him. Even more important might be the championship attitude and leadership lost without him in the locker room. Jackson is rapidly aging and struggling with injuries. There are definitely some holes to fill in Atlanta’s high powered offense this year and in the next few years. With cornerstones like Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in place, whoever steps into them will definitely be in line for some fantasy consideration.
The most immediate hole to fill is the one left vacant by Gonzalez. Let’s be completely honest here. There is no way to replace someone like Gonzalez. He’s the best tight end the NFL has ever seen and even in his late thirties he was one of the most productive in the league. There is going to be a drop off at the position. The behemoth of a man that is the 6’8”, 265 pound Levine Toilolo currently sits atop the depth chart with journeyman Bear Pascoe behind him. Personally, I don’t see either of them evolving into the pass catching weapon to replace Gonzalez. Toilolo is going to be a big red zone threat, but I don’t think he is athletic enough to be a major weapon while Pascoe is little more than veteran depth. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Falcons ask the tight end position to block much more this year than in past years and let their receivers do the work. I don’t think their future at the position is on roster right now.
In the backfield, they have a trio of young rushers behind Jackson with Jacquizz Rodgers, Antone Smith and Devonta Freeman. Rodgers has been around for a few years now and we pretty much know what we have in him. He can be a change of pace and third down back, but that’s about it. He isn’t ever going to be the guy or even a major part of a committee. The fourth rounder, Freeman, is a more intriguing case. Personally, I see an above average backup when I look at Freeman. I don’t see the heir to the throne. I think the starting running back position is something to be addressed in the 2015 draft and free agency by the Falcons with Freeman being high quality depth at the position. I just don’t think he has the skill set to be an NFL starter for an extended period of time.
Carolina Panthers
With Steve Smith now in Baltimore, who is going to catch passes from Cam Newton?
The Panthers offense was 26th in total yards and 29th in passing yards in 2013. They could be even worse in 2014. Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn were their top three wide receivers last year, but they have taken their talents to Baltimore, New England and Arizona, respectively. The leading pass catcher on the team was actually Greg Olsen and he is thankfully back in the fold for Newton to throw to. However, that’s the extent of the good news for the receiver and tight end positions when it comes to returning players. The rest of the players on the roster from 2013 at either of those positions accounted for fewer than ten catches combined. Clearly someone is going to need to rise to the occasion to help out Olsen and Newton.
Even with the glaring need at the position, the Panthers didn’t put as much of a focus on getting some help as many expected them to do given the severity of the need. They did however spend their first round draft pick on Kelvin Benjamin. The 6’5”, 240 pound receiver is going to be a red zone monster. He also has exceptional ball skills when it comes to adjusting to the ball when it is in the air as well as going up and getting jump balls. While all of that is great, he is severely lacking in the speed and agility departments, which could limit his ability to be a true top target for the Panthers. Out of necessity he is going to see quite a few targets this year, but I question exactly how high his ceiling is down the road.
Outside of Benjamin, the Panthers made the earth shattering signings of Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, Tiquan Underwood and Tavarres King to fill out their wide receiver ranks. Cotchery is the likely starter opposite Benjamin, but his high point in the last four years has been 46 receptions for 602 yards. While that isn’t terrible, it isn’t going to cut it as a top two receiver on a team. At 32 years old, he is likely on the downslope as well. Avant’s prospects aren’t any better. Only one year younger and slightly more productive over the past few years, Avant is less athletic and definitely not a long term solution either. Underwood and King are younger and more athletic, but neither one is fit to be a starter at this point in their career. Underwood doesn’t have the upside and King has the physical tools, but likely not the refinement. King does have the highest upside and not much in front of him, he just hasn’t taken advantage of the opportunity yet.
It is going to be a very rough season for the Panthers’ passing game and I would expect wide receiver to be the top priority once again during the 2015 offseason. No one outside of Olsen and Benjamin should be counted on as anything more than a one year depth play or deep sleeper.
New Orleans Saints
Lance Moore and Darren Sproles combined for 108 receptions and 1,061 yards last season and significantly more than that in 2012. What is going to happen to the Saints’ passing game with both of them gone?
[inlinead]Drew Brees hit a three year low last season with only 5,162 yards and 39 touchdowns. That’s right. His three year low was the fifth best passing season in the history of the NFL! He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for being as good as he has been during his time with the Saints. His production and consistency are the reasons why I have had him and still continue to have him as my top quarterback in my rankings. I don’t expect the losses of Moore and Sproles to hold him back at all. Brees is one of those extremely rare quarterbacks who can spread the ball around enough to make due with just about anyone catching passes from him – that means there are a lot of fantasy points for someone to earn.
Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Pierre Thomas will continue to be highly involved in the passing game and I would expect them all to approach or surpass 70 receptions yet again. It is going to take more than the three of them to keep Brees happy though as he sometimes had as many as 10 different players catching passes from him in a game.
Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks seem to be locked in as the second and third receivers for the Saints and seem to be primed for big seasons. Both are young, talented, and have the straight line speed to spread defenses out. You aren’t going to get them cheaply in any leagues, though. In fact, you will probably need to overpay to get them, so if they aren’t on your roster already, you’re looking further down the depth chart.
When you’re looking at the depth for that fourth receiver, the two players who stand out to me more than the rest are Nick Toon and Joseph Morgan. Morgan was neck and neck with Stills early last year before Morgan went down with an ACL tear. If he is fully recovered, he could push for the fourth spot and be another deep threat on the roster. On the other hand, you have Toon. He isn’t a burner, but rather a Colston-type of receiver. He is a big bodied, sure handed possession player. If I had to pick one, I’m leaning more towards Toon because of the diversity he brings when added to Stills and Cooks. Keep in mind that Colston is 31 years old and nearing the end, so there is going to be even more opportunity in the near future.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lovie Smith is the new sheriff in Tampa Bay. How will that impact everyone’s favorite Bucs?
The 2013 offense of the Bucs was led by rookie quarterback Mike Glennon and Doug Martin in the backfield with Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and Tim Wright catching passes. It didn’t take long for Lovie Smith put his mark on the team. Williams now finds himself playing in Buffalo after some off-season issues, but he isn’t the only one who is in for a bit of a change in 2014. Wright and Glennon have been replaced by players Lovie likes quite a bit more and are very unlikely to be fantasy starters anytime soon, if ever. That leaves just Jackson and Martin out of the top five who are returning to their 2013 roles.
Josh McCown was Lovie’s choice to come in and lead the offense. He isn’t a long term solution given his age, but McCown showed everyone last year what he can do with the right receivers in the proper system. While I’m not sure the system will be as friendly as Chicago’s system, Tampa Bay is doing everything they can to surround him with the right weapons. Even with this, the fantasy value of McCown is fairly low given he is likely to be a QB2 and there are a lot of them available.
First round selection Mike Evans is going to be a fantasy starter in the very near future. He’ll take over the Mike Williams role in the offense, but has more talent and a much better work ethic than his predecessor. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a rookie season on par with what Williams produced back in 2010. The question marks begin after Jackson and Evans. There has been some talk about converting Wright to wide receiver and it might be a great decision given the rest of the depth chart at the position. There really isn’t anyone at the position who stands out as having a lot of upside or the talent to be worth while in the short term.
When it comes to tight ends, the dynasty discussion starts and ends with Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The second round selection is blessed with both size and excellent athleticism. The issues for him in the past have all centered around his effort and work ethic. If Lovie can get the most out of him, he has the ability to be a TE1 in fantasy leagues and a prime target on the football field. The overwhelming majority of rookie tight ends need some time to develop, so Tampa brought in Brandon Myers to bridge the gap. While Myers showed he is above average in Oakland, he isn’t anything special. If ASJ struggles to adapt to the NFL, Myers could be a one year fill in on your fantasy roster, but I wouldn’t count on it.
For me the most interesting position to watch in Tampa is going to be running back. I’m not nearly as high on Martin as most people are. I do not think he is an elite option in the NFL or in fantasy leagues. He is definitely a solid running back but he isn’t beyond reproach. Add in the committee approach preferred by the new offensive coordinator and Martin’s stock is slipping for me. I currently have him just barely inside my top ten at the position. Lovie Smith absolutely loved Matt Forte in Chicago and went out of his way to draft Charles Sims in the third round. Sims was compared to Forte an awful lot in the draft process. It wouldn’t surprise me if Sims starts out with the minority part of a 70/30 split and slowly starts to earn more time as the season and years progress.
That’s it for the NFC South. Next stop, the perennial media favorite, the NFC East.
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