Dynasty Stock Market: Tight End Tiers

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 17, 2014

graham The April DLF dynasty mocks have come and gone and we now have ADP date to peruse and use in all of the many ways discussed in prior articles. In today’s Dynasty Stock market, I wanted to take a look at how the dynasty community is currently valuing the tight end position, with a focus on how those tight ends are separated into tiers based on their ADP.

Here we go!

Tier One

TE1: Jimmy Graham, NO (April ADP: 9)

Yep, the Saints’ Jimmy Graham has the penthouse to himself. Graham now has back-to-back seasons finishing as the TE1 in fantasy PPR leagues and three consecutive seasons with a top two finish. He’s still relatively young and is the focal point of one of the best offenses in football. There’s really nothing not to like about Graham and his situation.

Tier Two

TE2: Rob Gronkowski, NE (21)

Another player who can claim a tier all to himself is the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski. Although Graham has the TE1 titles over the past two seasons, it’s Gronkowski who has the highest scoring average among all tight ends since 2012 and considering he is three years younger than Graham, it’s fair to say Gronkowski would be in that top tier if it were not for his growing injury history. With that said, the injuries are not something to ignore. After coming back from arm and back injuries that cost him much of the 2013 season, Gronkowski suffered a torn ACL that ended his season. Gronkowski’s dynasty value rides on him remaining healthy.

Tier Three

TE3: Julius Thomas, DEN (45)
TE4: Jordan Cameron, CLE (49)

The two breakout tight ends of 2013 hold down these next spots and although they are still highly regarded, both carry just enough questions to create at least a two round gap between Gronkowski and themselves. For Julius Thomas, there are lingering concerns, as there are with several of the Broncos’ pass catchers, that their success is closely tied with the career arc of veteran quarterback Peyton Manning. In Cleveland, tight end friendly coaches Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner are gone and it remains to be seen how Jordan Cameron will fare without them. Because of these questions, these pair of young tight ends are closer to tier four than the elite players in the top two tiers.

Tier Four

TE5: Ladarius Green, SD (66)
TE6: Jordan Reed, WAS (67)

Another pair of young tight ends make up the fourth tier and fall about a round and a half off the previous tier. Ladarius Green has been this year’s Jordan Cameron, who was being drafted fairly highly this time last year despite little career production – that move worked out pretty well for many dynasty owners, but Green still has Antonio Gates in front of him, for another year at least. Meanwhile, the only concern for the Redskins Jordan Reed seems to be the concussion that cost him the remainder of his rookie season in 2013. All reports are that he is back to full strength, but we’ve seen the recent history of the affect of concussions and it’s not pretty. Considering the lack of production of Green and the injury to Reed, both of these players are being overdrafted, in my opinion.

Tier Five

TE7: Vernon Davis, SF (79)
TE8: Dennis Pitta, BAL (88)
TE9: Eric Ebron, (91)
TE10: Tyler Eifert, CIN (93)
TE11: Zach Ertz, PHI (93)
TE12: Kyle Rudolph, MIN (93)
TE13: Greg Olsen, CAR (102)
TE14: Jason Witten, DAL (113)

The depth of the TE1 class has been often discussed and we see evidence of that here. It’s interesting that this tier is filled with either veterans who’ve proven that they can perform as starting fantasy tight ends or younger players who dynasty owners are projecting as fantasy starters. I really like every player in this tier at these respective draft positions. Even if Eric Ebron, Tyler Eifert or Zach Ertz may not be ready to be plugged in as every week starters, there are a slew of older tight ends who can be had later that can bridge the gap. On the other hand, if you are trying to win now, Vernon Davis, Dennis Pitta and Greg Olsen all provide excellent value. This is the tier I would be focusing on if I missed out on Graham or Gronkowski.

Tier Six

TE15: Dwayne Allen, IND (127)
TE16: Jace Amaro, (127)
TE17: Charles Clay, MIA (137)
TE18: Martellus Bennett, CHI (143)
TE19: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, (143)

Obviously, at this point we’re out the TE1 range and most of these players would be considered fantasy reserves with some upside. The one exception could be the Bears’ Martellus Bennett who would be an example of a veteran I would target as my starter if I’d already nabbed Eifert, Ertz or Ebron earlier in the draft. The rest of the players in this tier are younger and are relatively unproven, though Charles Clay had somewhat of a breakout year in 2013. Hopes are high for the Colts’ Dwayne Allen, who is returning from his season ending injury just in time to work with Rob Chudzinski, who was hired by the Colts – that relationship could be very beneficial to dynasty owners in the near future. Also, expect both of the rookies (Jace Amaro and Austin Seferian-Jenkins) to see their ADP rise once the May draft has concluded and we know which team these players will be suiting up for. In nearly all cases, it seems the rookie ADP rises once the draft is over.

Tier Seven

TE20: Travis Kelce, KC (163)
TE21: Coby Fleener, IND (163)

It’s rare to see such a small tier so late in a startup draft, but that’s what we have with this pair of young tight ends as they are separated from the other tiers by more than 20 spots in both directions. The Chiefs’ Travis Kelce never got a chance to show what he can do as a rookie after undergoing microfracture surgery, but the off-season buzz has been positive and the Chiefs clearly have a need at the position. If Kelce can prove he’s healthy, he’s a steal this late in the draft. The Colts’ Coby Fleener has the same advantage I mentioned with Allen, regarding the newly hired Chudzinski. The problem with Fleener is that even with Allen missing much of the 2013 season, he failed to establish himself as a reliable player for the Colts or fantasy teams. With identical ADPs of 163, I’m choosing Kelce over Fleener.

Tier Eight

TE22: Colt Lyerla, (187)
TE23: Delanie Walker, TEN (189)
TE24: Troy Niklas, (195)
TE25: Jared Cook, STL (196)
TE26: Antonio Gates, SD (198)
TE27: Ryan Griffin, HOU (200)
TE28: Joseph Fauria, DET (211)
TE29: Luke Willson, SEA (218)
TE30: Tim Wright, TB (221)

This is the last tier I’ll cover and it could’ve lasted until the end of the tight end ADP, but I’ll cut it off here. Most of these players are youngsters who are worth taking a chance on anytime after the fifteenth round. It seems every dynasty owner has a favorite player to grab as a flier third tight end. For me, I’d give the Seahawks’ Luke Willson a chance, even though they have retained Zach Miller. If your rest of your tight end depth chart is young and unproven, using a seventeenth round pick on Antonio Gates is not a bad idea.

There’s a look at the tight end tiers based on April ADP. Who are your favorite values? Who do you think is being way overdrafted?

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.