Fantasy Football on a Budget
Each and every off-season, the hype machine kicks into full gear in fantasy circles. It happens with rookies and veterans alike and turns some leagues into an arms race. You know a league member is really high on someone just like you are, so you plan on taking them a bit earlier. They catch wind of your plans and it creates a vicious cycle – this leads to certain players shooting up draft boards who really don’t belong there. The perfect example from 2013 is Latavius Murray.
Like all things in life, there is the other side of the coin. If some players are getting overhyped and shooting up boards, there are some other players who are sliding down. These are often players who are less flashy but still very solid dynasty league performers. These aren’t the players making the highlight reel plays, but they deliver week in and week out. Because of this, they end up becoming rock solid deals at the price you can acquire them. While having a roster full of these players isn’t going to make any swoon over your team and it can make trading difficult at times, it could very easily get you a long way into a championship run.
With this in mind, I wanted to take a look back at the 2013 season and put together a starting lineup and a backup at each of the major positions. This lineup will be constructed entirely using players I feel were (and in often cases still are) drastically undervalued in the dynasty community as a whole. I’ll also include a little bit about what I expect from them in the future. Some of these players are definitely people you should inquire about in your leagues because their current owners might not fully appreciate what they have. Keep in mind, price and value are very different things and a lot of these players have a lot more value than their current price would suggest!
Quarterback
Starter: Philip Rivers (Top 7 QB. 4,478 yards, 32 TDs, 11 INTs)
Rivers bounced back from a down year in 2012 and put together one of his most complete seasons to date. He might be getting a little long in the tooth having just turned 32 in December, but you can still get several more good years out of him. He had a touchdown in every game and either had multiple scores or topped 200 yards in all but one game this year. With emerging superstar Keenan Allen out wide, potential breakout tight end Ladarius Green over the middle, future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates and a capable backfield combo, there isn’t any reason he shouldn’t be right back at this level next year. When you can get him for low end QB2 prices that is quite the deal.
Backup: Alex Smith (Top 10 QB. 3,313 yards, 23 TDs, 7 INTs. 431 yards and 1 score rushing)
Many still view Smith as a bust, which drives down his value a lot. He was extremely streaky at the start of the year, failing to score through the air in four of his first seven games. All of that evened out and improved once he became comfortable with his new team. He ended up throwing for multiple touchdowns in six of his last eight games and the Chief’s offense really took off. Smith will be 30 at the start of next season which is right in the prime of a quarterback’s career. With the athleticism that he showed last year and the talent around him, he’s an extremely cheap fantasy backup to have on your roster.
Running Back
Starter: Knowshon Moreno (Top 5 RB. 1,586 yards, 13 touchdowns, 60 receptions, 4.3 yards per carry)
Last off-season there were reports that Moreno was on the chopping block with rookies Montee Ball and CJ Anderson as well as Ronnie Hillman on the Broncos roster. A few short months later Moreno is a top five fantasy running back thanks to a bring the lead back for the Peyton Manning led offense. His resurgence was partially due to his proficiency in the passing game (both receiving and blocking) and partially due to him finally being healthy after tearing his ACL late in 2011. Projecting Moreno into the future is tricky due to him being a free agent. The good news is he is healthy and only 26 years old, which is prime age for a running back. If he stays or goes to a team that uses their running backs to catch passes, he should be a solid RB2 for several more years.
Starter: Reggie Bush (Top 12 RB. 1,512 yards, 7 touchdowns, 54 receptions, 4.5 yards per carry)
We finally saw the Reggie Bush we expected when he was taken with the second overall pick in the NFL draft. He showed power running between the tackles, burst to the outside and great hands in the passing game. His production would have been even better if he didn’t miss two full games and parts of at least two others due to injuries. He’ll be 29 in two months and the injuries are still a concern as is the presence of Joique Bell.  Bell is going to get some touches, but Bell is only a year younger and is a restricted free agent. Bush can still give you at least one if not two more years as a RB2.
Backup: Danny Woodhead (Top 12 RB. 1,034 yards, eight touchdowns, 76 receptions, 4.0 yards per carry)
Most expected Woodhead to be an asset in the passing game, but few expected him to be the new Darren Sproles. His 76 receptions were one of the highest totals in the league this year. He’ll turn 29 in a week but in this type of role he can continue to play into his thirties. He’s only signed through the end of the 2014 season right now, but if he has another year like 2013 he’s very likely to be resigned. While his value drops significantly in non-PPR leagues, he is a decent low end RB2 in PPR leagues and should stay there for several more years.
Wide Receiver
Starter: Antonio Brown (Top WR, 110 receptions for 1,499 yards, 8 touchdowns plus 1 punt return score)
At the start of this season, you could have given most in the fantasy community at least ten if not twenty guesses at who the top fantasy wide receiver was going to be this year and they still wouldn’t have guessed Antonio Brown. He is the prime example of a player that is undervalued and underappreciated. He isn’t flashy, but the consistency was unparalleled! He had at least five catches and 50 yards in every game this year, the only player to do that. He’ll start the 2014 season having just turned 26 years old, providing value for years to come! I don’t expect him to be the top fantasy receiver again, but multiple top ten finishes over the next few years are easily within reach.
Starter: Eric Decker (Top 10 WR, 87 receptions for 1,288 yards, 11 touchdowns)
Decker, like the rest of the Broncos offense, had a great but inconsistent season. With as many weapons as they had, the ball just went to whoever provided the best mismatch. Decker is a much better athlete than most give him credit for and he possesses the skills to be a top target on an NFL team. That is good news because he is a free agent after the season and could be on the move. Without Manning, he might not be a top ten receiver in future years, but he should still be in the later parts of the top 20 receivers as long as he lands somewhere with a decent quarterback (Colts would be perfect!).
Starter: Julian Edelman (Top 15 WR, 105 receptions for 1,056 yards, six touchdowns)
Once Danny Amendola was signed by the Patriots, you couldn’t give Edelman away in a trade. He was outright dropped in a lot of leagues. He went on to be Tom Brady’s most dependable and consistent target for the season. Edelman had five catches or more in 75% of the regular season games this season and established himself as the go to guy. Of course key players were injured for the Patriots, but I don’t think Edelman is going to fade away. He is a free agent, but I fully expect him to be resigned at a reasonable price and for him to continue his role in 2014. He isn’t going to make many highlight reels, but he is going to give you solid production as your second or third receiver at the price of a WR4.
Backup: Brian Hartline (Top 25 WR, 76 receptions for 1,016 yards, four touchdowns)
This was Hartline’s second straight year with 70+ receptions and over 1,000 yards. He still struggled to get into the endzone and only had two games over six catches or 100 yards, but he consistently produced 8-12 fantasy points almost every week. That doesn’t sound like much and the upside is limited, but as a bye week or injury fill in you could definitely do a lot worse. His offense should continue to improve, adding a little on the top end, and the price for Hartline is definitely right in a lot of leagues.
Tight End
Starter: Greg Olsen (Top eight TE, 73 receptions for 816 yards, six touchdowns)
Olsen’s 2013 season was nearly identical to his 2012 season. He’ll be 29 entering the 2014 season and there isn’t any reason to think he won’t continue to produce at the level of the past two years. The ceiling is low but the floor is high. You can almost certainly expect him to put up 4-6 catches for 40-80 yards with a decent chance at a touchdown. If you need some consistency or just need a tight end to tide you over for a year or two until some of your young tight ends develop, Olsen is a great value.
Backup: Antonio Gates (Top 10 TE, 77 receptions for 872 yards, four touchdowns)
Gates has lost a step or two. There is no denying that. However, even a depleted Gates is better than a lot of other tight ends in the league. He’ll enter the 2014 season at 34 years of age with talented Ladarius Green starting to see some snaps, so his time is limited. With that said, the price is right. He isn’t even in the top 20 rankings on a lot of people’s lists, but he’ll still give you a fairly consistent ten points in PPR leagues. If you’re hurting at the tight end position and need someone for a year, you could do a whole lot worse.
If this was your roster, you almost certainly made a deep run into the playoffs this year. The best part about it is there isn’t a single name on this list that had a startup ADP anywhere near the top three rounds of a draft. If you add three studs to this list then you definitely have a championship team.
Of course the tricky part is identifying those under the radar, disrespected players from the start. Look for the players with solid production in the past, a clear path to playing time, and those who have been in the league for a few years. Unless someone is a superstar, the fantasy community tends to toss players aside much too quickly in favor of the next rising star. The problem is the majority of rising stars fizzle and die long before they make it, leaving players like the ones on the list to pick up the slack and lead you to a title.
It is tough to ignore the hype. If you can deal with not having the flashy players, you can find much better players at a much lower cost. Sprinkle these players in with a few early round studs and a few solid rookie picks and you end up with a championship team. Substances over flash is the way to go when it comes to getting the best value.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
