The DLF Mailbag: The Right Reasons

Eric Hardter Posted On December 20, 2013

megasnow

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

However, this week I’d like to do something a little bit different than normal. I know the majority of leagues out there will be crowning their champions at the conclusion of this week’s slate of games, and that’s always very exciting. With that said, championship weekend doesn’t exactly provide us with too many things to view from a dynasty perspective.

Perhaps you could be looking for one last key waiver add, but I’m guessing a large percentage of teams still playing are just going to ride the guys who got them there (Editor’s Note: That’s the very reason we won’t have another waiver wire article this season). The vast majority of leagues have also placed a temporary moratorium on trading, meaning those talks will be shelved at least another week. Finally, while the excitement level for the arrival of the 2014 rookies is slowly rising, as of now we don’t even know which players have declared yet! So again, while this is an exhilarating time for some, it’s truly a dead time for most.

So instead of the usual, I want to take stock of the psychology that can permeate the fantasy universe at this point in the season. Along those lines, below is a short, albeit straightforward email I received from a colleague in my oldest dynasty league who just suffered a tough loss:

“I seriously hate this sometimes. I don’t know why I play. It just brings me misery year after year.”

It’s a harsh and blunt viewpoint, but you know what? I can relate. An off-season’s worth of roster building followed by 13 weeks of above-average play doesn’t guarantee you anything in terms of your championship aspirations. To elaborate on that point, I’d like to share with you the story of the worst fantasy loss I ever suffered.

It was the first round of this year’s playoffs in my IDP dynasty league and I was facing off with one of the league heavyweights. He had a lead going into the Monday night contest (Dallas versus Chicago), and it would all come down to my Tony Romo needing to score enough points to both make up the deficit and outscore his Dan Bailey. When the dust settled, Romo tossed three touchdowns and Bailey was held to only four extra points and I emerged with a one-point victory. I celebrated with a victory shot (no, not of chocolate milk like Ted Mosby would describe it to his kids), counted my blessings and went to bed happy.

That happiness lasted until Thursday morning, when I awoke and decided to tinker with my lineup. To my shock and dismay, I was no longer scheduled to participate in the semifinals. I checked the scoreboard and found out that the NFL decided to go rogue and make several late-week stat corrections, two of which directly impacted my roster:

Atlanta linebacker Paul Worrilow was discredited a half-sack and tackle (-3 points)
The yardage total of Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson was changed from 49 to 52 (+2 points)

Doing the simple math, my outright win had turned into a tie on the morning of the first week 15 game. But these are the playoffs, and there’s no such thing as kissing your sister when the postseason rolls around. Our first tiebreaker is “real football points scored” (touchdowns plus field goals plus extra points plus two-point conversions plus safeties) and his total of 46 points (seven touchdowns plus four extra points) bested my 39 (six touchdowns plus three extra points). He was in and I was out, and that was that (adding insult to injury, I started my best lineup for week 15 and would’ve won my semifinal matchup by, you guessed it, one stinkin’ point).

I’m not too insecure to admit I got upset, perhaps irrationally so considering we’re talking about fake football. But truth be told these feelings only lasted about an hour or so, and were then subsequently dismissed from my mind. I emailed the league to inform them of the stat corrections, congratulated my adversary and got on with my fantasy life. Why? Because when it comes to dynasty football, I believe in playing for what I’ll call “the right reasons.” To me, this includes, and is certainly not limited to, the following:

1. Rome wasn’t built in a day – When it comes to creating a dynasty, the yearly results represent little more than solitary data points in a long-term analysis. Some years the returns will be good, and other years you’ll find yourself in the red. However, much like with a mutual fund I find myself more concerned with the perennial growth of my team. If I keep making the moves that I believe best help my team’s bottom line, I know things will eventually go my way. Which leads me to the fact that…

2. The “real” season is just beginning – After this week the draft order will be set, trades will soon open up and the ironically titled “off-season” will begin in earnest. To be honest, I believe these next several months are equal to or greater than what happens in the regular season. I’m absolutely thrilled to begin scouting the 2014 rookies, updating my statistics and attempting to identify trends and predict the next year to the best of my ability. I can’t wait for the trade offers and, eventually, the rookie draft. If these past 13 (or 16, if you’re lucky) weeks represent going to school and sitting in on your classes, January through August is your metaphorical “homework.”

3. My players will be healthy again – It takes extraordinary luck to go through a season unmarred by injury. For my part, on the team I mentioned above I’m ecstatic to see how my lineup will look with the returns of players like Doug Martin, Reggie Wayne and Jordan Reed. I’m pumped to see Dwayne Allen get healthy and watch him build upon his underrated 2012 rookie season. My roster is going to get exponentially better without me doing a single thing and that’s an intoxicating feeling.

4. I can’t wait to see the growth of my younger players – When it comes to 49ers’ rookie tight end Vance McDonald, I’m undoubtedly higher than most. His 2013 stat-line of eight receptions for 119 yards hasn’t exactly rewarded my faith, but truthfully I couldn’t care less. I still view him as a surefire future TE1, and believe he’ll only continue to get better and become an integral part of one of the league’s better offenses. This growth begins – yup, you guessed it – with OTA’s and training camp, during the off-season.

5. I’m looking forward to unexpected breakouts from slumping players – Another player I was extremely high on prior to this season was Rams’ receiver Chris Givens. Unfortunately, be it due to the loss of starting quarterback Sam Bradford or the arrival of alternative weapons like Zac Stacy and Jared Cook, Givens hasn’t lived up to the hype I placed upon him. Regardless, I still see the same talent he flashed as a rookie and look forward to him growing as a third-year player in 2014.

6. Free agency is coming – To me, one of the most disappointing players this season was Raiders’ running back Darren McFadden, yet I view his figurative arrow to be pointing up. The reason is I believe he’ll finally be leaving the Black Hole in Oakland, and if he can pair his talent with a better situation I think he becomes one of the best “buy lows” in dynasty. To reiterate, identifying these potential breakouts, be it due to growth as a player or a change in circumstance, is the lifeblood of dynasty football.

I’m sure I could go on, just as I know the DLF readers could add several points of their own. Ultimately though, the fact is that we dynasty aficionados have every motive in the world to look forward to the next several months makes the past few weeks seem almost inconsequential. Losing always hurts, but I partake in this format for the right reasons – that’s more than enough than get me through until next year.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.