Dynasty Mythbusters: Undervalued & Overvalued
Often in the world of fantasy football we overreact based on what is going on at that exact moment, forgetting all of the weeks, months, and years leading up to that point in time. If you’re ever on twitter during games you see many, many examples of this week in and week out. The hype train often gets rolling much too quickly one way or the other on players.
If you look back at past years, one of the prime examples was Kevin Ogletree after his week one blowup last year. Some teams spent nearly their entire free agency allowance on him only to see him put up next to nothing for the rest of the season even after our words of warning.
We don’t want you to make that mistake! The fantasy mythbusters series takes some inspiration from one of my favorite TV shows, it is just too bad I don’t get to blow anything up! I will examine a potential breakout player from the previous week. The goal is to figure out if their performance was just the tip of the iceberg or if you’re better off letting someone else spend their money and roster spot on them. From this point forward, I’m not going to be focusing very much on this season but rather the long term outlook for 2014 and beyond.
This week I’m going to take a moment to look at two players I just don’t understand where the current perception of them comes from in the general dynasty community. The need to devote some time to these two was triggered by multiple items including some forum posts, the DLF poll on the front page asking people to pick their top three PPR flex options, and most recently Karl Safchick’s nice write up on a 2014 dynasty startup draft. The combination of these items has me feeling there is one player that seems to be consistently undervalued in my eyes while another is being overvalued. Let me explain why.
Antonio Brown, WR PIT
2013 Season through 14 games: 95 receptions on 138 targets, 1307 yards and 8 touchdowns.27 punt returns for 347 yards and 1 touchdown.
The fourth year veteran is a former sixth round pick of the Steelers from the 2010 NFL draft. His rookie year was largely a redshirt year before he burst onto the scene during his second year with 69 receptions for 1,108 yards but only two touchdowns. He failed to keep up with that pace during his third year with only 66 catches for 787 yards, but his touchdown total improved to five for the season. The drop off in yardage was due in part to missing three full games and parts of a few others with injury as well as his role changing slightly in the offense.
This year he is a top five receiver in almost all formats and top three in most PPR formats. Even with two games remaining, his 2013 season is already second all time in the entire history of the Steelers franchise for receptions and fifth for yardage. He should easily break the yardage mark by the end of the season. This on a team with two current Hall of Famers at the wide receiver position and a potential third one in the recently retired Hines Ward. It isn’t like he is setting records for the Jaguars. Even with this historic season, the 25 year old receiver seems to be consistently undervalued.
In Karl’s mock draft I referenced earlier, Brown wasn’t even drafted in the top 15 receivers, being drafted behind players with major suspension questions (Justin Blackmon), injury concerns (Randall Cobb and Percy Harvin), aging veterans (Vincent Jackson), and largely unproven commodities (Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery, and Michael Floyd). I’m not saying he belongs in the discussion with the top group of Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas. Though at the current point in time he behind only Johnson, Jones, and Gordon in fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. He does need to be strongly considered as the next receiver in the rankings in my opinion.
The Good: The question about Brown is what don’t you like? He is a 25 year old receiver that has recorded at least 66 receptions all three years as a starter, 1,100 yards receiving in two of three seasons and has been more involved in the offense each of his three years as a starter. His production this year isn’t a fluke but rather the next step in a three year trend. He has also been extremely consistent this year with at least five catches and 50 yards in every game this year. That’s double digit fantasy points in PPR leagues every week. It is a claim only one of the six receivers in the top group can make. Julio Jones also had double digit fantasy points in every game, but he only played five games.
In terms of a skill set, Brown is fast, runs crisp routes, has soft hands and is extremely explosive. He has a great work ethic and has shown a wiliness and ability to adapt his game and role to fit the offensive system. During his second year he was used primarily as the deep threat but since then his role has changed to him acting as more of a possession receiver at times since the Steelers switched from a vertical passing scheme to a much shorter, timing based offense. He still takes the top off of defenses from time to time with five catches over 40 yards this season, but his role is definitely different and he seems to have thrived even with the changing situations.
Speaking of situations, it is hard not to like his current situation. Like him or not, Ben Roethlisberger is actually a pretty competent passer, averaging more than 250 yards per game for the last five seasons. While it isn’t flashy, it is more than enough to support a top flight wide receiver for fantasy purposes. Brown also just signed a big contract in the summer of 2012 and isn’t going anywhere, meaning he is locked in as the top receiver on the team for years to come.
The Bad: At 5’10” and around 186 pounds, he is far from the biggest guy on the field. Then again neither is Steve Smith and that has worked out pretty well for the Panthers! Adding a bit more strength would help Brown in terms of boxing out defenders and beating press coverage, but he has managed to use his explosiveness to gain all of the separation he needs. It is fair to wonder what will happen when he crosses the 30 year old mark when receivers seem to lose some of that burst, but we have five more years before we need to worry about that issue! I’m honestly not sure what people don’t like about Brown other than his lack of size. He isn’t very flashy and doesn’t make the highlight reel catches some others make and the Steelers have been way under the radar this year but that hasn’t slowed Brown down.
The Ugly Truth: In my eyes, Brown is one of the great bargains that can be found in dynasty leagues right now. He is young, talented, has a history of production and is healthy. That’s a combination very few wide receivers have right now. If you’re able to pick him up for WR2 prices from an owner that still isn’t giving Brown the credit he deserves it is well worth the price. Outside of the top six receivers I mentioned, I would gladly give up any and all of the top prospects at the position in a straight up deal (though I might need to think a bit about Jeffery due to being a Bears fan). After all, their ceiling is exactly what Brown is actually giving you right now! Why not take the guy who is doing it right now over the guy who might do it down the road?
Shane Vereen, RB NE
2013 Season through 14 games: 40 carries for 199 yards and 1 touchdown. 43 receptions for 381 yards and 1 touchdown.
Brown was obviously the player I felt is being vastly undervalued in the majority of leagues which means Vereen is my player I think is being overvalued. A second round pick in the 2011 draft, Vereen was supposed to be the lead running back for the Patriots starting as soon as his rookie season. That isn’t exactly what happened. Vereen struggled through injuries and ended up being sixth on the Patriots with only 15 carries as a rookie. Hopes were again high heading into the 2012 season but Vereen was beat out by fellow second year running back Stevan Ridley. Ridley totaled 290 carries while Vereen was third on the team with 62 carries, missing three more games due to injury.
2013 was once again supposed to be the year everything changed for Vereen. He finally had a healthy pre-season and the depth chart at running back had shrunk with the departure of Danny Woodhead. It seemed to be Vereen’s year when during the first week of the season Vereen had 14 carries and seven receptions for a total of 159 yards while Ridley had nine carries for 46 yards. That would be good news if it wasn’t for the broken wrist Vereen suffered in the game. The broken wrist caused him to miss over two months. He’s back now, but what exactly does it mean for the talented but oft-injured third year back?
The Good: At 5’10” and 205 pounds, Vereen boasts decent size for the position. His most impressive attribute is his ability to run routes and catch passes. Combine that with good speed and change of direction ability and you have a true weapon in the open field. In fact, he is such a proficient pass catcher he has 43 receptions in just six games played. If he was able to keep up the pace, he would have 115 catches during a full season! That’s definitely a number that has coaches in PPR leagues drooling.
Another piece of good news for Vereen is the current state of the Patriots. With Aaron Hernandez being one of the biggest fools of the century, Wes Welker moving on to Denver, Danny Woodhead going to San Diego, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski continuing to have injury issues, and Ridley fumbling away his chances it is tough to imagine a more open path to success. Tom Brady might be in his twilight years but he is still one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league. All of this means someone needs to catch the passes from Brady, so why not Vereen?
The Bad: The biggest knock against Vereen has to be his health or rather the lack thereof. He has missed eleven games during his rookie season, three during his second season and now eight more during his third year. That means he’s been healthy and active for just 52 percent of the games during his three year career. To me, Vereen’s history is definitely the definition of injury prone. Owners of Vereen definitely need to be aware and concerned about his history.
Another major concern about Vereen is the fact that he is a member of the quagmire that is the New England backfield. Very few things can be trusted in that backfield as Belichick has very little loyalty to anyone other than Tom Brady. An injury, a fumble, a bad game, or even just the game plan in general could very easily lead to anyone’s role, including Vereen’s, suddenly disappearing for weeks on end. Look no further than Ridley for an example. He went from high end RB2 to nearly droppable over the course of one month due to fumbles. There is no loyalty to anyone on this team. It is all about the team first, which is great for winning games but not so great for fantasy owners.
The third major concern about Vereen is his usage over the last five weeks. In the five games he has been back since the wrist injury, he has only 26 carries. On several occasions he has been used almost exclusively in the passing game to help offset some of the injuries and inefficiencies the Patriots have suffered this season. What does this mean for his role next year once the people are healthy and the Patriots fill any remaining gaps in the passing game with new players? No one knows for sure, which is a cause for concern.
The Ugly Truth: Vereen is definitely talented and is one of the best pass catching running backs in the league. He belongs right up there with the likes of Darren Sproles and Danny Woodhead. He is also on a team that you know is going to pass the ball a lot and will find a way to use its best players. The long term is Vereen just might be the best option they have right now due to injuries, not the best overall. The bigger issue though is the long list of injuries Vereen has suffered through in just his three years in the league.
With the concerns about his role moving forward as well as the injuries, I don’t view him as the fool proof investment that many others seem to have him pegged as from what I’ve seen recently. In the recent DLF home page poll, Vereen was picked by 62 percent of the respondents as one of the top three players that were listed. Personally, I would rather have the likes of Victor Cruz, Alfred Morris, Eric Decker, Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree and Kendall Wright instead of Vereen. The fact that Vereen was drafted at 2.06 in Karl’s 2014 mock draft tells me that I might be in the minority on this perspective. Don’t get me wrong, I like Vereen’s upside and talent, there are just way too many questions around his health and situation for me to trust him as anything more than a RB3 with upside at this point in time. Spending a second round startup pick on him or taking him over top 15 receivers and running backs is way too high for my tastes. I’m a firm believer in the old adage that “You can’t win your fantasy league in the first few rounds, but you can definitely lose it.” There are far too many question marks about him for a second round price tag. If you are in an existing league, it is definitely worth dangling him out there to see if you can get that kind of value for him because a fair number seem to think it is where he belongs.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
