2014 Dynasty Mock Draft with Analysis

Karl Safchick

gordonMany have heard the phrase “Luck favors the bold.” That’s a popular quote. Personally, I’ll side with Louis Pasteur’s opinion. He once said “Fortune favors the prepared.” While many of our readers are currently playing for a chance at a championship game, some are already looking toward the future. We at DLF want to prepare you, and your dynasty team, beyond just this year. If you can not win the championship in 2013, start preparing now to place yourself in a better position for 2014 and beyond.

A few nights ago we conducted a six round mock draft. The premise was the draft would be a full dynasty with full flex positions. The idea behind this mock was that each team owner would select the best player available. When you’re conducting a hypothetical draft with only six rounds, team owners don’t have to concern themselves with “team need.” That format creates a very telling story of what a draft might feel like. Keep in mind the rookies from next year have yet to be added to consideration.

I will break the draft down and analyze it round-by-round.

Round One

Josh Gordon 1.01

AJ Green 1.02

Calvin Johnson 1.03

Dez Bryant 1.04

LeSean McCoy 1.05

Julio Jones 1.06

Demaryius Thomas 1.07

Jimmy Graham 1.08

Jamaal Charles 1.09

Randall Cobb 1.10

Doug Martin 1.11

Giovani Bernard 1.12

First Round: 0QB/4RB/7WR/1TE

The first thing I notice about the first round is the first nine picks. I fully expect these players to be the first nine off of the board in nearly every dynasty startup draft in 2014. The order of the first nine players will likely be randomized in different drafts, but I don’t expect any of them to fall out of the first round.

Many will see Calvin Johnson as the 1.01, but that is not a certainty anymore. “Megatron” will be turning 29 early in the 2014 season, and you can see that already take its toll on his draft position. Age is a factor that dynasty owners take very seriously, and as the oldest player in the first round, it will be interesting to see where his ADP is by the beginning of next season.

Two players who did not finish the season with their respective teams were drafted in the first round. Doug Martin and Randall Cobb ended their 2013 season on Injured Reserve. Martin was selected in 2013 startups, by many, in the top half of the first round. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see him creep back into the bottom half of the first round next year. For the most part, Cobb was not drafted in the first round in 2013. Many owners would like to draft a young, talented player in the first round. Combine that with an overwhelming movement toward wide receivers in dynasty, it would not be a stretch to see Cobb and Alshon Jeffery late in the first round next year.

Round Two

Alshon Jeffery 2.01

Brandon Marshall 2.02

Adrian Peterson 2.03

Matt Forte 2.04

Keenan Allen 2.05

Shane Vereen 2.06

C.J. Spiller 2.07

Victor Cruz 2.08

Eddie Lacy 2.09

Justin Blackmon 2.10

Michael Floyd 2.11

Aaron Rodgers 2.12

Second Round: 1QB/5RB/6WR/0TE

Total: 1QB/9RB/13WR/1TE

The wide receiver infatuation continues into the second round. Nearly every team has a pass catcher on their team at this point, and with thirteen of them off of the board, the chance to get a WR1 is out the window for the teams that don’t. Many of these receivers are extremely young for WR1 standards. Keenan Allen, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, and Jeffery are all rookies or sophomores. It’s very interesting to see Jeffery selected ahead of his teammate, Brandon Marshall. Marshall is still considered an elite player by most dynasty owners, but he will turn 30 years old this March.

Nine running backs have been drafted after 24 picks. We’ve seen a mixture of youth and experience at the position. Many will pass on the opportunity to draft Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Matt Forte because of their respective ages. There is nothing wrong with being age-biased; it is just strategy preference. If you want a player who will likely give you good production for one to two years, these players are great investments. If you want a player who could be a cornerstone of your team for three or more years, these players may be ones you’d want to avoid.

This draft almost went two full rounds without a quarterback being drafted. With the last pick in the second round, Aaron Rodgers was selected. Personally, I believe the gap between Rodgers and the next best quarterbacks, in dynasty, is narrowing. As made evident by the next round.

Round Three

Rob Gronkowski 3.01

Andrew Luck 3.02

Vincent Jackson 3.03

Drew Brees 3.04

Cam Newton 3.05

Torrey Smith 3.06

Percy Harvin 3.07

Alfred Morris 3.08

Antonio Brown 3.09

Russell Wilson 3.10

Cordarelle Patterson 3.11

Le’Veon Bell 3.12

Third Round: 4QB/2RB/5WR/1TE

Total: 5QB/11RB/18WR/2TE

After Rodgers was selected, four more quarterbacks were selected in the next ten picks. If you want a high end QB1, remember that the third round will likely be the time to take one. There will still be talented signal callers left later in the draft, but if you believe in “taking your guy”, you cannot wait past this round.

Jimmy Graham was selected with the eighth overall pick, no other owner picked one until seventeen picks later. Rob Gronkowski will undoubtedly be a polarizing player, worthy of lengthy discussion this offseason. Many will view him as a surefire first rounder. Many will not want to draft him until later rounds. Injuries are a tricky aspect of fantasy football. A player who has as long a history of Gronkowski, will certainly garner some pause by many owners.

Although only eleven running backs have been selected to this point, I’m sure the owners without one aren’t too happy with the prospects left on the board. When building a team, you should not concern yourself with filling positional spots this early in the draft, but if teams wait much longer, they will not have a viable RB1 option.

Round Four

Jordan Cameron 4.01

Jordan Reed 4.02

Rueben Randle 4.03

Julius Thomas 4.04

DeMarco Murray 4.05

DeAndre Hopkins 4.06

T.Y. Hilton 4.07

Pierre Garcon 4.08

Ray Rice 4.09

Zac Stacy 4.10

Trent Richardson 4.11

Jordy Nelson 4.12

Fourth Round: 0QB/4RB/5WR/3TE

Total: 5QB/15/RB/23WR/5TE

Now the tight ends start to come off of the board. After Graham and Gronkowski, the next three guys are valued very similarly. Many people believe that there is a huge drop off in value at the tight end position after the top five. Much like the quarterback position in round three, if you want a top five tight end, you must take one before round five.

This round saw the youngest group of guys in the draft. Besides Ray Rice, none of these dynasty assets seem to have their value depreciating because of age.

I’m very intrigued by the value in this round. Many drafters (including myself) believe in finding that “sweet spot” in the draft. It looks to me that we’ve found it. Besides the three aforementioned tight ends, you have guys like DeMarco Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Pierre Garcon, and Jordy Nelson, who could all easily be considered second round picks. If you’re in the second round of your draft, you may want to consider trading back into a round with similar value while gaining an extra draft pick. Many owners would be just as happy drafting Trent Richardson as they would drafting Peterson. If you’re one of those owners, consider such a trade.

Round Five

Marshawn Lynch 5.01

Christine Michael 5.02

Matthew Stafford 5.03

Kendall Wright 5.04

Larry Fitzgerald 5.05

Michael Crabtree 5.06

Ladarius Green 5.07

DeSean Jackson 5.08

Andre Johnson 5.09

Cecil Shorts 5.10

Montee Ball 5.11

Justin Hunter 5.12

Fifth Round: 1QB/3RB/7WR/1TE

Total: 6QB/18RB/30WR/6TE

This round is very interesting to me. You see a guys like Marshawn Lynch, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson who have proven to be great fantasy options for many years, among complete unknowns like Christine Michael, Ladarius Green, Montee Ball, and Justin Hunter. This round is an absolute microcosm of dynasty football. By seeing who your opponent selects in this round, you may be able to assume their strategy for the entirety of the draft. Does your opponent want the upside of Fitzgerald, or do they want the upside and youth of Hunter? Will Marshawn Lynch go “beast mode” once again, or will his Michael eventually replace him in the Seahawks backfield?

At this point in the draft, there have been six quarterbacks, 18 running backs, 30 wide receivers, and six tight ends selected. I fully expect your draft to have a very similar number of players per position drafted after round five. Keep these numbers in mind. If you are facing a difficult decision early in the draft, knowing what will be left after five rounds, at each position, will be very helpful in your decision making.

Round Six

Robert Griffin III 6.01

Hakeem Nicks 6.02

David Wilson 6.03

Colin Kaepernick 6.04

Robert Woods 6.05

Nick Foles 6.06

Lamar Miller 6.07

Chris Johnson 6.08

Vernon Davis 6.09

Tavon Austin 6.10

Tyler Eifert 6.11

Ben Tate 6.12

Sixth Round: 3QB/4RB/3WR/2TE

Total: 9QB/22RB/33WR/8TE

This round seems like dynasty purgatory. Many players who were drafted very high in 2013 have found their way into the sixth round. Robert Griffin III, Hakeem Nicks, Colin Kapernick, and Lamar Miller have all been relative disappointments this season. All of these players still possess the upside needed to be a considered at this point in the draft, though. This round resembles a risk takers dream.

There are certainly better ways to determine where, exactly, a certain player will be drafted. Check out our Dynasty ADP all off-season for a more telling story on draft position. Individual mocks can tell a tale by themselves, though. Look at how many players per position are drafted after each round. Look at the feel of a round. Is the value in round four, the same as the value in round two? Where do the runs occur? What rounds attract the risk takers?

What observations do you have about this draft? Let us know in the comments section below. We have it locked down, so any comments here can’t be viewed by non-premium subscribers.

Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick