Not for Long: Tight End Edition

The profound letters “N, F and L” don’t just stand for National Football League.  In a sport where circumstances change faster than Oakland’s projected week one starter, the acronym NFL is given a secondary meaning: Not For Long.  This means we can’t take anything for granted.  It wasn’t long ago Mark Ingram was a consensus top three pick in rookie drafts or Aaron Hernandez was considered a lock for top tier tight end production.

Sometimes the changing circumstances are due to unpredictable events, such as the season ending injuries, but in many cases the drastic change in player values come from expectations. Whether its anticipating a player’s situation or analyzing their skillset, the perception and expectations of players are key factors in identifying their future values.

Dynasty owners have to be a step ahead of the game in realizing what the perception of the player is now and what it will be in the future.  It is with this mentality I share with you my thoughts of some of the current perceptions of players now, and what I am anticipating for the future.  Some may be bold – but with risk comes reward.  At the end of the day, you have to trust your instincts, be able to act on them and put yourself in a position to win.

Not For Long…

1.) …will Zach Sudfield be a fantasy starting caliber tight end.

Rookie Zach Sudfeld has made a splash this offseason, and according to MyFantasyLeague.com data, he has been one of the hottest waiver wire additions.  He has been added in an astounding 23.4% of leagues, which doesn’t account for the savvy owners who selected him in rookie drafts.  At this point he should be owned in virtually all dynasty leagues.

This doesn’t mean the ride won’t end.  He has done a solid job with the opportunities given, but make no mistake the majority of his current value is situation based as the temporary number one tight end in New England.  Right now, he could be a borderline TE1 play in matchups while Rob Gronkowski remains sidelined due to injury.  Gronkowski’s latest injury news, however, was positive.  The Patriots opted not to put him on the PUP list and he’s already practicing in full pads.  After his return, Sudfeld’s value will inevitably take a hit.

Sudfield is listed as the “move” tight end on New England’s roster, which is the role Aaron Hernandez played before his “allegedly” notorious actions.  While Hernandez was a highly valued fantasy asset, make no mistake – Zach Sudfeld is not Aaron Hernandez.  Coach Bill Belichick has a very innovative mind, and his creation of an offense featuring two tight ends was because of the resources he had.  With Hernandez out of the picture, Belichick won’t try to force a square peg into a round hole.  This means Sudfeld is not a lock for Hernandez-like production, and instead may look to reinvent this production elsewhere.  Many expect more involvement from Shane Vereen, who is another versatile weapon.

My advice is to wait for a couple big games from Sudfeld with Gronk out of the picture, then put him on the trading block.  I don’t think his value will completely evaporate, but it would be prudent to cash in on illusions of the next Aaron Hernandez and any subsequent temporary price inflation.

2.) …will Jermaine Gresham hold fantasy value.

In 2010, the Bengals used pick #21 to select tight end Jermaine Gresham.  In each year  as a professional, his fantasy contributions have progressed, but he never became the sure-fire TE1 owners were hoping.  The Bengals must not be fully convinced either, because in this year’s rookie draft the Bengals used the same twenty-first overall pick on another tight end, Tyler Eifert.  One round later, the Bengals drafted another dynamic pass catcher in running back Giovani Bernard.

Gresham is signed through 2014 and it is unlikely the Bengals would cut ties in advance.  Both tight ends are likely to see plenty of snaps, but Eifert is a much more talented pass catcher and was said to be Andy Dalton’s favorite target when A.J. Green was sidelined during the preseason.

This year’s draft selections ended the days Gresham could be inserted into lineups as a reliable bye-week fill-in.  Dalton hasn’t been able to consistently support any fantasy options outside of Green and both Eifert and Bernard figure to jump ahead of Gresham in the pecking order.  This likely moves the veteran tight end to fourth or fifth on Dalton’s list to compete for targets with whoever emerges as the second receiver.  This doesn’t bode well for his fantasy outlook, which may have just begun a rapid decline.

3.) …will Coby Fleener’s college connection prevail.

Entering last season, the hype surrounding Coby Fleener had peaked.  The new breed of tight ends rattling the league mixed with his reunion with first overall pick Andrew Luck had dynasty owners clamoring to select him in the middle of the first round in rookie drafts.

Despite the hype surrounding the Fleener-Luck college chemistry transitioning to the next level, Dwayne Allen finished with higher totals in all categories across the board.  While this is in part due to Fleener missing several games due to injury, Allen looked like the better player.  Despite Allen’s thicker frame, he has deceiving athletic ability as a pass catcher.  His blocking ability makes him a more complete tight and will keep him on the field as much as possible.

The book is far from written and both tight ends will be used, but the focus on Fleener can’t be about his college chemistry with Luck any longer.  Dynasty owners need to stop hoping Luck will carry Fleener to the next level and instead focus their attention more on his ability to transition to the NFL game itself.  In this respect I think he’s at a disadvantage and Dwayne Allen will emerge from the 2013 season as the clear top tight end in Indianapolis.

4.) …will Fred Davis be considered a TE2.

Following a derailed season ended by a torn achilles tendon, Fred Davis is severely underrated in dynasty leagues.  He went from starting caliber to being valued as a back-end TE2, as noted by his July ADP data as the #23 overall tight end.

In 2011, in just 12 games, he recorded nearly 800 receiving yards.  Before sustaining his injury last season, he showed great chemistry with rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III by hauling in 77.4% of his targets for 312 yards in the first six games of the season.  Over a full season, this projects to a solid output of 832 yards.

Davis has been fully healthy throughout the preseason and declared he hasn’t felt any soreness for months.  He was limited early, but only by a coach who learned the hard way last season not to rush players back from injury.  Davis will step right back into his starting role with the Redskins and attempt to pick up where he left off prior to last year’s injury season.

He may never join the small elitist group of tight ends, but he offers starting talent ability at a backup’s price.  People are starting to catch on though, which is reflected in August’s ADP data where he crept up slightly to the eighteenth overall tight end.  Right now he’s still a bargain, but it won’t be long before he takes the field, reminds everyone of his potential and is pulled out of the bargain bin.

5.) …will Levine Toilolo be a ghost name in fantasy circles.

The fact Tony Gonzalez will be retiring in the very near future is not exactly breaking news.  He even seriously debated not returning for the 2013 season, which means the Falcons’ front office has clearly thought about the need to replace such a vital asset of their offense.  It is definitely in their best interest to develop a young player, so when Gonzalez moves on, they aren’t scrambling for a replacement or forced to start an unproven rookie.

Enter Levine Toilolo.

He was the Falcons’ number #133 overall (fourth round) selection in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Standing at 6-foot-8 and 260 pounds, he is a force to be reckoned with.  He may not be a hot prospect, but given the Falcons’ imminent future, there must be something they saw in him.  He was mostly a blocking tight end who complimented better known prospect Zach Ertz at Stanford.  While he has never been a major part of the passing game, he has decent hands and the potential to be a big red zone target.

This preseason he hasn’t been mentioned in any news stories or camp reports I’ve read.  He might not be turning heads, but people are bound to start asking questions when they start giving more thought to who will be Gonzalez’ heir.  It’s only a matter of time before the questions start.  If you have deep rosters, he could be a cheap waiver wire addition with the potential to flip if his name garners some buzz even based on situation alone.  Worst case scenario would be you dropping him if they find a better number two option – that’s no skin off your back.

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisR124.

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