Making a List: Tight End Values

Ryan McDowell Posted On May 27, 2012

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As you know, I’m a list guy. I make “to do” lists, follow “honey-d”o lists, and will take time to read a top five or top ten list of almost anything. This series of articles will bring you a top five ranking about a myriad of topics in the world of dynasty fantasy football.

The dynasty value of a player is very dynamic and can be effected by anything from a surprise injury to an offensive lineman to a covered up assault at a night club. With the access to information available to the average fan specifically via Twitter, fantasy owners must be aware of the current value of their players and of the players they hope to acquire. Often, how an owner values a player can be different than how he would rank that player. For example, many owners and experts would rank Antonio Gates or Jason Witten in the top five, but during a start-up draft or a trade discussions, the true value of players is discovered.

Here are the top five most valued tight ends in PPR dynasty leagues, according to the most up-to-date information and data. The ages listed are as of September 2012.

1. ) Rob Gronkowski, TE NE (23.4 years old)

Following a surprising rookie campaign where he finished as the TE5 in 2010, Gronkowski exploded last year, collecting over 1,300 yards and 17 touchdowns. Gronkowski scored over 20 fantasy points an amazing nine times, including three games with more than 30.

With other great receiving threats in the Patriot offense like Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez, it would not be surprising if the touchdown total regressed somewhat. Even with five fewer touchdowns last season, Gronk still would have finished as the TE1 in PPR leagues. Adding all of this to the fact that he is 2 1/2 years younger than his nearest competition makes Rob Gronkowski the runaway highest valued tight end.

Current Startup ADP (average draft position): 14

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Rob Gronkowski
Team B gave Michael Crabtree, Eric Decker, Jason Witten

Team A gave Rob Gronkowski
Team B gave Demaryius Thomas, Mike Wallace, 2014 1st round rookie pick

2. ) Jimmy Graham, TE NO (25.9 years old)

Unlike Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham was eased into playing time during his rookie 2010 season, but he did show great promise and was a trendy choice to break out in 2011. He did not disappoint, grabbing 99 receptions for over 1,300 yards and 11 scores – good enough to finish as the TE2 and vault his dynasty value to second round start-up value.

The outlook for the Saints offense is very cloudy heading into 2012. With head coach Sean Payton suspended, quarterback Drew Brees embattled in a contract dispute and the loss of fellow touchdown threat Robert Meachem, the Saints offense could be in for some changes. As long as Brees is the leader of this team, Graham is a safe bet for top tight end production and is valued as such.

Current Startup ADP: 16

Recent Trade:

Team A gave Jimmy Graham
Team B gave 1.02 Rookie Pick

3. ) Aaron Hernandez, TE NE (22.8 years old)

There is a clear dropoff from the top two tight ends to this tier, led by Hernandez. It is interest that Hernandez joins the top two tight ends in the draft class of 2010. What a great year to draft a tight end! Despite the fact that Hernandez finished with fewer receptions, yards and touchdowns that his teammate Gronkowski, his statistics were good enough to finish as the TE3 in 2011.

Many seem to discount Hernandez’ dynasty value because he battles for snaps and targets with Gronk, but the Patriots have shown they can support multiple elite pass catchers, no matter the position. Also, there has already been speculation that the smart spending Pats will not be able to sign both tight ends to long-term deals. It is unclear if this is a good or bad thing for each of them.

Current Startup ADP: 47

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Aaron Hernandez, DeMarco Murray, 2013 2nd round rookie pick
Team B gave Rob Gronkowski

Team A gave Aaron Hernandez, Jon Baldwin, 2.06 Rookie Pick
Team B gave Jared Cook, 1.07 Rookie Pick

4. ) Jermichael Finley, TE GB (25.5 years old)

Two years ago, Finley started the increase in tight end value after ending the 2009 season strongly. Owners saw the great offense he was part of and envisioned touchdowns and fantasy points piling up for years to come. Leading into the 2010 season, Finley was drafted as a top five tight end, despite only four career double digit fantasy point games. Finley’s 2010 season started modestly, collecting only one score through four full games. In the fifth game of the season, Finley was hurt and placed on season ending injured reserve.

Finley finally played a full season last year, but only finished as the TE9. He is being drafted and valued in trades as the fourth most valued tight end, but has yet to produce as the three ahead of him and several below. With plenty of options in Green Bay, it is becoming less and less likely that Finley will become the TE1 in dynasty leagues.

Current Startup ADP: 55

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Jermichael Finley, Miles Austin
Team B gave Brandon Marshall, James Starks

Team A gave Jermichael Finley, CJ Spiller, 2013 4th Round Rookie Pick
Team B gave AJ Green, Rashard Mendenhall, 2-13 5th Round Rookie Pick

5. ) Vernon Davis, TE SF (28.7 years old)

For years, Davis struggled with drops, inconsistency and poor relationships with coaches. With six seasons now on his professional resume, Davis seems to have matured and found his place in the 49er offense. He finished 2011 on a roll, scoring two touchdowns in each of the season’s final two games along with a total of nearly 300 receiving yards. He continued his run in the playoffs and San Francisco upset the New Orleans Saints. Although Davis’ value has never been higher, it seems he is still a bargain in dynasty leagues as he can be had much cheaper (or drafted much later) than Gronkowski, Graham or Hernandez.

Current Startup ADP: 56

Recent Trades:

Team A gave Vernon Davis, Jamaal Charles, Rookie Picks 2.03, 3.01, 4.01
Team B gave Doug Martin, Fred Davis

Just missed: Jason Witten, Fred Davis

In next week’s Making a List, I’ll focus on undrafted rookie free agents to monitor.

Follow Ryan McDowell on Twitter @RyanMc23

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.