Three Sophomore Sliders To Target

Ryan McDowell Posted On May 20, 2024

Years ago, I wrote an article titled Rookie Investments, which studied the dynasty value of rookies and how safe that value was beyond their initial season. Spoiler alert: I found through studying our own dynasty ADP that rookie value was well insulated, even holding strong through a disappointing season.

I might have to revisit that topic because dynasty managers are clearly much less patient all these years later. Looking back at the top-24 rookies selected in May 2023 1QB dynasty startup ADP, half of them have lost value in the twelve months since. Of those top 24, twelve have fallen compared to our current May 2024 ADP, and eleven have tumbled more than two full rounds. As I said, I’m adding a deeper study to my summer to-do list, but for now, I want to focus on a few of those current fallers that I’m not ready to give up on in dynasty leagues.

Here are three post-hype sleepers that I am targeting in dynasty startup drafts as well as dynasty trades.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA

Valued as a top-24 dynasty asset a year ago, Seahawks receiver Smith-Njigba is now an early-sixth rounder and the WR35. Even after landing in Seattle last April, Smith-Njigba still carried massive dynasty value as the roadblock created by talented veterans DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett was simply ignored. Even in seasonal leagues, many were valuing Smith-Njigba ahead of one or even both of his new teammates. It really shouldn’t be a surprise how the 2023 season played out. While Smith-Njigba showed steady improvement throughout the season, he was far behind his teammates in fantasy scoring, finishing as the WR48, while Lockett (WR32) and Metcalf (WR21) each averaged double-digit fantasy points.

jaxon smith-njigba | credit: steven bisig

Entering his second season, Smith-Njigba still has the same two veterans to deal with after Lockett’ agreed to a reworked deal, keeping him in Seattle. There are reasons to stay positive though. Lockett is almost certainly entering his final season in Seattle as he is due a massive raise following the 2024 year. Lockett is also already 31 years old. Meanwhile, the Seahawks brought in former University of Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to run the offense. Grubb helped turn the Huskies from one of the nation’s worst offenses into one of the most explosive in just a few years. The top reason I like Smith-Njigba as a buy target is because his new ADP of 62 overall is a new low point in his young career.

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Kendre Miller, RB NO

A year ago, Saints running back Kendre Miller was a late first-round rookie pick and a top-30 dynasty running back. This was all despite some pretty clear red flags about how Miller’s rookie season might play out. The Saints were clearly in win-now mode after investing heavily into new quarterback Derek Carr and still had veteran back Alvin Kamara on the roster, though he was dealing with some off-field concerns. New Orleans had also added veteran back Jamaal Williams as further competition. Finally, Miller was coming off a significant injury that ended his final college season in the playoffs. We should’ve seen this all coming.

kendre miller | credit: stephen lew

Just as with Smith-Njigba, Miller is still dealing with the same competition as a season ago. Now though, Miller will enter year two fully healthy, with his prime competition, Kamara and Williams, each entering their eighth NFL season. Dynasty managers will need to exercise patience with Miller, but with an ADP outside of the top-150, he’s a player I am taking a chance on entering the 2024 season.

Marvin Mims, WR DEN

Few rookies were more frustrating in 2023 than Mims, the Broncos receiver. Mims was a dynasty favorite, with a rookie ADP closing in on the late first round as the pre-season neared. Mims showed some early-season promise, including a 20-point fantasy game in Week Two. Unfortunately, this promise just led to disappointment for the remainder of the season. Mims’ usage was the major issue for most of the year. Veteran Jerry Jeudy was clearly in the dog house and struggling, yet Mims was never able to take advantage. In many games, he played behind Lil’Jordan Humphrey and was ultimately outscored by Brandon Johnson.

marvin mims | credit: ron chenoy

The concern moving forward remains Mims’ opportunity and the possibility that he too is in Sean Payton’s dog house, which would not be easy to overcome. The Broncos depth chart is wide open with Jeudy gone. Courtland Sutton is fading, now outside of the top 100, while Denver has added Day Three rookie Troy Franklin and veteran journeyman Josh Reynolds. If Mims can’t get on the field over these guys, we’ll know quickly we can move on in dynasty leagues. Mims’ current ADP is 142 overall, more than three full rounds lower than where he was being valued one year ago.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.