Dynasty Fantasy Football Strategy: Rookie Drafts
As the series rolls on, it is time to cover the most exciting time for any existing dynasty leagues: the rookie draft! In the previous installment of this series around rebuilding, our teams were set up for this moment and the moves made during the draft will either accelerate or completely derail the process. This article will make sure you take the steps necessary to either build or maintain a league winner. I am going to try to not repeat too many of the concepts covered in the startup draft and trade articles but there are some that bear repeating due to the importance of the topics.
So let’s jump right into Rookie Draft Strategy!
Put together your rookie rankings before the NFL Draft in tiers and only move players within the tier after the landing spot is determined
We all know the cautionary tales of Clyde Edwards-Helaire going too high and AJ Brown going far too low because the dynasty community overrated the impact the landing spot would have on these players. In the NFL, situations change in the blink of an eye so we are looking to collect talent and watch it win out despite what might look like a poor situation due to coaching staff, offensive efficiency or depth chart. Patience is a virtue in dynasty so grab those studs and don’t worry about the team around them.
The exception to this rule is draft capital. A free fall in the NFL Draft can and should impact your rankings. The league and team’s opinion of a player is important when it comes to them seeing the field. Taking a day three draft pick in the first round of a rookie draft is a dangerous proposition with a low likelihood of success. Let someone else reach early and go with players who have significant investment in their success by the team that took them.
Let’s carry this thought out a little further with another rule for rookie drafts.
Quarterbacks with draft capital have value no matter what your pre-draft evaluations tell you
Success can be forced in the NFL at quarterback more than any other position in the NFL. General managers put their reputation (and sometimes even their job) on the line when they invest a high draft pick on a QB. Why is this important? The general manager both controls the roster that will be built around this quarterback and the coaching staff who decide which players will see the field.
Because of this, you should also be placing bets on these players being successful as they will be given every opportunity to do so. Simply put, a quarterback with first-round draft capital in the NFL should also have first-round draft capital in your superflex rookie draft. Don’t get cute in what is the highest value position in these leagues. If you don’t like the player, you can always move them but they will return value early on by the mere fact that they are a starting quarterback in a league where only 31 other players can make that claim.
With the rookie rankings set, it is time to take a quick look at the draft pick values before starting to make picks. This next step is extremely important to maximizing the value of each pick and ensuring league domination for years to come.
Tier the draft picks and trade to the back of the tier wherever possible
Overlaying your rankings to the actual rookie draft board and then looking at the picks you have, it will become clear if you are in the middle of the tier or the end of it. Our goal here is to get the best value for each pick, so if you are in the middle of a tier, trade back for the best return possible.
How does that look in reality? Well, let’s say that you are going into this draft with Treylon Burks, Drake London and Garrett Wilson all rated essentially the same. If you assume Breece Hall is going with the 1.01, your goal should be to move the 1.02 for the 1.04-plus if possible. In this case, it doesn’t even have to be a huge return because it is pure profit. It is important to remember that everyone looks at value differently and you could score a free second-round pick or veteran to help your team for someone looking to come up for Kenneth Walker or one of the wide receivers who they have head and shoulders above the others.
This is a very simple concept but one that a lot of people don’t see as being worth the effort. Grab those free assets wherever possible and add to the value of your roster at no cost to you.
Ok, that is enough homework. Let’s get to draft day and start making these picks.
First up, the golden rule for all rookie drafts!
Draft for talent, trade for need
If you take any advice from any of these columns, it should be this. The rookie draft is a time to take the best player available, not fill holes in your lineup. There is no bigger mistake in rookie drafts than reaching for an inferior talent because they happen to line up at a position of need for your current roster. The draft is simply a point in time and not the end of all roster movement.
Need a running back? Take a wide receiver with huge value and shop him after the draft for a running back or equal or greater value to a wide receiver needy team.
We covered this in detail around startup drafts as well, but it is something we want to hammer home.
If you are feeling risk-averse, shop the pick for the position of need before selecting the player. The only mistake is taking a second-round talent at 1.06 because of need. Don’t reach, just relax and let the off-season play out while you add value to your roster at every step. Check out the trading article in this series to learn how to properly maximize these assets.
Late-round dart throws should lean heavily to the running back position
This concept is fairly simple. Late-round picks can only gain value if they see the field, so lean towards the more injury-prone position that is already scarce around fantasy football. Late day two and early day three running backs usually have a much clearer path to snaps than the other positions so you should be loading up on these guys late in your rookie draft.
The second that there are whispers of the starter missing time, these players will skyrocket in trade value. Not a player you like? Move him once the news breaks for a huge profit.
Take a look at your transactions page of your league and you can almost always see the exact moment that a starting running back gets hurt. Trades and FAAB just start flying in the hopes that the next Elijah Mitchell is waiting in the wings.
The more lottery tickets you have, the better your chances to hit so bet big on this position in the later rounds.
Taking these steps during your rookie draft should turn your fate around in dynasty. Have fun with it, move up and down the board when value presents itself, and get ready for the playoffs if you play your cards right!
As always, question everything here and make adjustments for your particular leagues and scoring systems. Happy to answer any questions below in the comment section.
- 2024 Rookie Drafts: Tight End Tiers Primer - May 4, 2024
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Free Agent Class - March 11, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Strategy: Draft Pick Value - December 21, 2023
