38 Responses to “2012 Blind Rookie Draft”

  1. Dig Dug says:

    Obviously your league does not draft defensive players. Ours plays DLs, LBs and DBs. At what point should I start drafting defensive players?

    • Ryan McDowell says:

      Dig Dug,
      Sorry, but I have very little experience with IDP leagues. It does seem that the top defensive rookies usually last until the 2nd round, but it all depends on your league’s scoring.

      • bs inc says:

        In our league the top level def. players usually start comming off the board 3rd round. With most being in round 4-6, with our 7th being the mop up

        • Sensei_John_Kreese says:

          Like Ryan said, it depends on scoring. For example, in our league last year, Dqwell Jackson was about even in total scoring with Mike Wallace. Theres no way that a prospect like Kuechly would EVER make it to the third round in our league. Especially if he goes to the seahawks or chiefs.

      • Sensei_John_Kreese says:

        IDP veteran.

        You’ll start to see the big names (Kuechly and Barron) come off in the late first/early second. In my league, I plan on taking Kuechly with the 1.11. In Reality, there will only be few defensive guys worth taking in the first 4 rounds. That being said, I am 100 percent comfortable taking the best IDP prospect in the entire draft at 1.11. Luke Kuechly is going to be special. Set the all time ACC career tackle record, despite having left BC after his Junior year. I actually really hope my Bills land him at 10, even though we have more pressing needs.

        Watch the ILB’s that come off the board early. If you don’t mind waiting a year or two, these guys can really pay dividends. In our 4 round rookie draft last year, guys like Colin Mccarthy and Kelvin Sheppard went undrafted. These guys are now starting middle linebackers and have the potential to put up huge numbers. Do your homework, make a mental note of any ILB drafted, especially those drafted early.

        One more thing…Avoid 3-4 outside linebackers like the plague. They are useless.

        • Steve Wyremski says:

          Nice comments, Sensei.

          I generally disagree with that strategy in an offensive deep draft (depending on scoring format of course), but I certainly respect it and have seen that used successfully.

          As I noted below, I typically prefer to hit the elite guys in the 2nd (if available) and wait until the 3rd to hit off on IDPs when the offensive pool starts thining out.

          • Sensei_John_Kreese says:

            I generally wouldn’t advise taking an IDP in the first round either. I tend to be too mathematical when i draft. Figuring in bust rates. I find that, historically, receivers are a total crapshoot. Blue chip, intelligent, 3 down linebackers don’t come around as often. I also took Eric Berry in the first round 2 years ago at 1.11. So, I have a history of IDP infatuation.

  2. tstafford says:

    That is really interesting. I’ve never heard of it, but I like it a lot. I like that it rewards research, makes the draft more exciting and that it forces people to draft on talent.

    • Steve Wyremski says:

      I do this in one league as well where college players are incorporated too.

      It’s crazy the type of value people get in the later rounds in these drafts. For example, Helu was drafted in the 5th of my March pre-draft draft last year whereas Jordan Todman was in the 2nd.

  3. Boomer says:

    Lol. Trent Richardson, even the risk he goes to Cleveland. I have 1.2 and pretty sure 1.1 is going to pass on him. I HOPE he goes to Cleveland. Good o-line and no one else on the offense to steal touches away from him.

    • Sensei_John_Kreese says:

      No, he’ll just be greeted by 11 man defensive fronts every down of every game.

      • Boomer says:

        Not after they take either Tannehill (stock dropping) or Stephen Hill at 22. Cleveland knows they need to address offense in a major way even after they take Richardson at 4.

        • Sensei_John_Kreese says:

          No, im sort of kidding. Running behind Joe Thomas has an inherent appeal.

          • Boomer says:

            It’s amazing how well this draft COULD fall for Cleveland. Already have four picks in the top 67 (yeah, cheated on that one). Chance Tannehill ‘Brady Quinns’ to 22. If not they can take their choice of Osweiler or Weeden in the 2nd. Already have an over the middle guy in Greg Little and this draft is stocked with deep threat WR’s. Even the best available players defensive when picking (beyond 4) are need positions for Cleveland.

          • Luke says:

            There is no chance Tannehill falls to 22. Miami or Seattle has all but guaranteed that they’re taking him.

          • Josh G says:

            Went to ASU, and other than his height, I wouldnt take Osweiler until the 4th round earliest..

            He had a decent amount of game at the collegiate level and he wasnt really ever a liability, but he isnt really a next level talent either.

        • Ryan McDowell says:

          Sounds like you are a Browns fan. For your sake, I hope the draft goes well and we start to see some improvement, but with their recent track record, you can’t blame me for not wanting the one true stud RB to end up there.

          Also, read a report today that they have no interest in a QB and will stick with McCoy. You never know what to believe this time of year, but that is certainly perplexing.

      • StevieMo says:

        A cautionary tale:

        When LaDainian Tomlinson came out of college, he was drafted by a truly dreadful San Diego team, which had no QB and an atrocious offensive line. Having started playing dynasty in 1988, I thought I was pretty smart to avoid him and said things like, “he’ll be greeted by 11 man defensive fronts every down of every game.”

        They drafted Drew Brees that year, as well, but it took him 3 or 4 years to become Drew Brees. Meanwhile, Tomlinson quickly became the best fantasy RB.

        Tomlinson went 1.04 in our 2001 dynasty draft behind QB Aaron Brooks (available veteran), Michael Vick and RB Michael Bennett, who was coming into a “made-to-order” situation on a high-powered Minnesota offense.

        The poor guy who drafted Bennett traded up to 1.03 to get him. He’s never lived it down.

        I’ll take Richardson no matter where he goes. He’s going to be great.

        • Sensei_John_Kreese says:

          Like i said up there, i was just joking. I agree that Richardson is going to be an impact player in the NFL for years to come, irrespective of draft day destination.

          • StevieMo says:

            I know you were, John. It was more a tale from my own experience rather than something directed at you. I’ll never miss out on a guy like that on that basis again, so I guess I’m a talent-over-situation d-leaguer.

        • Ryan McDowell says:

          Good point Stevie. We can learn from that, and from the draft above, that it is important to draft based on talent, not situation.

  4. Very interesting indeed. Couple of surprises. For one, I see Cyrus Gray at 4.1. On my board, I have him 1.12 to 2.2 territory. Though I admit I like him A LOT more than most. He reminds me of L. McCoy.

    I also have Marvin Jones and Chris Givens much higher, early 2nd round.

    Great work, Ryan.

    • Boomer says:

      He’s a good athlete (5 star HS recruit) and I’m high on him as well. Just doesn’t show great instincts and awareness. He should be a late second in dynasty drafts.

  5. Steve Wyremski says:

    If teams medically checked out Greg Childs and he’s ok, I really think we’re going to see him drafted earlier than expected and he’s going to shoot up the rookie draft boards.

    Dig Dug – on your IDP question, I agree with Ryan. Depending on scoring formats, the 2nd round is where I’d start taking the elite prospects (i.e., Kuechly & Coples) and wait until the 3rd to really go after them. Someone will definitely reach for one end of 1st, but I wouldn’t recommend it given the offensive depth in this draft.

  6. racer-x says:

    I can see the arguments for both on where IDP studs should be taken, but it’s really all about your league owners. Everyone knows that the top ILB goes in the bottom of the 1st. You MUST be in the late first if you want Kuechly in my leagues. I think that’s how it ought to be frankly. The poor teams already get the top offensive studs at the beginning of the first. They should have first crack at the defensive stud(s) also?

    I think it’s far more interesting to study an owner’s drafting history and determine their success rate. There are guys in my league that have Jamarcus Russell, Aaron Curry, Know-points Moreno, Limas Sweed, Crabtree, and Garrett Wolfe in their first round resumes. Swapping places with them is a no-brainer as they are statistically likely to draft a bust.

  7. racer-x says:

    *should have read, “everyone knows in my leagues”

  8. sandman says:

    great stuff

  9. Joe Kool says:

    Nice article!

  10. RP says:

    Best article of the year (please say Thanks RP!)

  11. sixshooter says:

    I don’t agree with hardly any of the pros to hosting a fantasy draft before the nfl draft.

    1) Owners are rewarded for their research just as much if not more when it is known where the players are going. The owners with the top 5 picks or so actually already know where there picks are landing before the draft but it is much easier for an owner who has done little research to “luck out” with a player in a draft where it is unknown where the player is going to end up.

    2) That howework will pay off much, much more with picking a late round sleeper if you actually know where the player is going to end up and just how much talent he is going to be surrounded with between coaching staff and players.

    3) The NFL draft is much more interesting when you do not know who you are drafting in your fantasy league and provides a couple weeks entertainment doing further research after the NFL draft now that you know where the players ended up since we have our rookie draft around the middle of May each year. This provides some serious entertainment and a ton of suspense and smack talk amongst the fantasy team owners leading up to the rookie draft. Much more to talk about, research and study than just talent which rewards the owners who do the research and homework considerably more than if they only have talent and guesswork to study.

    4) Year around Dynasty activity is a must and if you don’t do it….you will suffer. Has little to do with when you have your rookie draft.

    5) Talent is considered to some extent no matter when the rookie draft is for obvious reasons and I am sure that there is more hodge podge guess work as to where a player will end up that goes on with a rookie draft before the NFL draft than anyone is willing to admit.
    It was not much of a secret where Thomas and Hardesty ended up last year before the draft so the temptation is still alive and well.

    6) Most all players should be knownn and researched before the NFL draft. If you are waiting until after the draft to at least become familiar with the players’ name, etc then you are likely missing the boat!

  12. sixshooter says:

    Hey Boomer, I also have the #2 pick as well as #11 and am hoping very much that Richardson goes to Cleveland since that would be my best bet even though I do have Little (and McCoy) as well in a deep 12 team fantasy league. The owner of the #1 pick is rumored to be taking Luck with his first pick so if that is the case, then I am definitely taking Richardson. If not, then my decision becomes a bit difficult because my QB’s are Cutler, Tebow and McCoy so I am more than likely taking Luck at #2 leaving Blackmon for #3 and RGIII for the #4 pick the way I see it unfolding.

  13. Ken Widerka says:

    I am betting that there are a few owners in the leagues that have held their drafts already that are fairly upset right now. I would love to see an updated mock on here soon!

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