Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: CeeDee Lamb or Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Chase Brown?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
The onset of this year’s NFL free agency period was a “blink and you miss it” type of affair. If you published a prognostication article with any sort of meaningful lead time, odds are it was already out of date by the time it went live. Fortunately, as avid readers of DLF are well aware, we have you covered with instant analysis and opinions on all the big off-season moves. Keep refreshing to make sure you don’t miss a thing!
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Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
For a contending team that is strong at receiver but weak at running back in a 12-team, 1QB PPR league, would you trade Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Chase Brown for CeeDee Lamb?
As per usual, let’s begin with the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
While I recognize Smith-Njigba and Brown are well-regarded dynasty assets, I have to confess my surprise at the perceived inequity between their combination as compared to Lamb. After all, this is a player who finished the 2023 season as the overall PPR WR1, and who still managed to conclude 2024 as the PPR WR8 despite missing two contests and playing the bulk of the year with backup Cooper Rush.
Yes, there was more volatility than owners would prefer, and a bit less green than we’re used to. But it’s not as if this was a “bad” season, with all but three efforts culminating in double-digit figures. Rather, it was reflective of a drop-off following quarterback Dak Prescott’s injury, resulting in nearly 2.0 fewer PPR points per game. This has been a symptom throughout Lamb’s career, as Prescott has only been fully healthy for two of his last five seasons.
Regardless, Lamb has been a force. Following his rookie season, he’s accrued at least 1,100 yards, and in the past three seasons, he’s had 100+ receptions. While touchdowns are not a huge staple of his game, he’s still managed to compile 27 scores since 2022. When combined, these numbers result in a player who is functioning as a weekly PPR WR1 more than a third of the time, and a WR1/2 nearly two thirds of the time. Drilling down within these efforts, Lamb has also been providing a top-five output once every five games.
Stealing a line from Khaleesi’s handmaidens, “it is known.” But what aren’t yet known, at least with any great certainty, are the futures of the players on the other side of the deal.
Starting with Brown, he clearly improved from his rookie season in finishing with 1,350 total yards and 11 scores. This allowed him to conclude the year as the PPR RB10 (RB14 in points per game). Still, it took an injury to backfield mate Zack Moss for Brown to arrive as a bell-cow ball carrier.
Perhaps sensibly, Brown’s numbers roughly doubled across the board once he took over the backfield. And while the massive increase to his receiving output was nice from a PPR perspective, his rushing became more inefficient, going from 4.6 YPC to 4.2 YPC. The latter effort is still solid, but much closer to replacement level – it also begs the question as to whether Brown may be miscast as a team’s true RB1.
This is likely why the team’s offensive coordinator, Dan Pitcher, noted that the Bengals would be seeking a big-bodied counterpart to help share the load. Almost immediately after Cincy signed former RB1b Samaje Perine to a deal worth up to $3.6 million over two years. The money isn’t eye-watering, but the team’s familiarity with Perine makes me wonder if there’s already a plan in place. Even with a true workhorse in Joe Mixon available, Perine saw reasonable run and plenty of use in the passing game (51 targets in 2022). To be clear, this is far from a death knell to Brown’s value, but thus far the team’s actions are matching their words. Additionally the Bengals have six selections in the 2025 NFL Draft, which has been noted for its depth at the running back position.
Similar to Brown, Smith-Njigba was another 2024 rookie who took a massive leap forward following a mediocre freshman campaign. Despite sharing the field with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, it was JSN who surprisingly led the team in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. In doing so he improved efficiency metrics such as catch percentage and yards per target, while also dropping five fewer passes despite an increase in targets.
Advanced metrics from Pro Football Reference.
The numbers are good, but there are nevertheless warning signs. As shown by the above, Smith-Njigba functioned as a true “slot archetype” receiver. His average depth of target (aDOT), while improved from 2023, was still a minuscule 8.7 yards. He showed some wiggle with 4.8 yards after contact per reception (YAC/R), but that onus will continue to be on him if the quality of his targets doesn’t improve. Perhaps more worrisome is the presence of the newly-signed Cooper Kupp, who, as shown below, plays the game in a very similar manner.
Advanced metrics from Pro Football Reference.
Cue the Spiderman pointing meme! As shown above Kupp is another slot-esque receiver who has yet to break nine yards for an aDOT in any given season. And while 2024 resulted in poorer returns, Kupp had previously excelled after the catch, with not fewer than 5.5 average yards per reception in any other season prior.
The elephant in the room, both for its obvious nature and potential age, is Kupp’s potential longevity. Kupp will be 32 before the 2025 campaign begins, and he has missed significant time in each of the last three seasons. Importantly, he’s fought through ankle and soft tissue injuries on multiple occasions, increasing the chance of recurrence. His lack of dynamic in 2024 also cannot be simply set aside, as it’s fair to wonder if Father Time has begun to win the inevitable fight.
But despite this, the Seahawks gave him a three-year, $45 million contract. The amount of guaranteed money has not yet been confirmed, but $15 million in 2025 asserts the Seahawks envision him being a major part of the offensive game plan. Even if he misses his typical few games, he could still be a thorn in the side of JSN.
Continuing, in case you missed it Seattle has been a bit busy over the past week! Gone are quarterback Geno Smith, as well as receivers Metcalf and Lockett, with the former two being traded and the latter released. Imported is former Vikings Sam Darnold, who despite a late-season collapse was still one of the better quarterbacks in the league last season.
Given this, the uncertainty is palpable. Will Darnold revert to his early-career form, or function as an upgrade on Smith? Will JSN’s role change with the absence of Metcalf and Lockett, and inclusion of Kupp? Even in a vacuum, it’s fair to wonder how much growth Smith-Njigba has in front of him, and if he can ever reach the heights of a player like Lamb?
Admittedly he came close last season, as shown above. But for reasons previously discussed, this was essentially a “floor” season for Lamb, with his ceiling of the overall seasonal PPR WR1 still in play. Beyond just a bird in hand, he is more akin to a golden goose.
Given this, and despite the Trade Analyzer asserting otherwise, I’m taking Lamb in this one. There’s too much uncertainty on the package side of the deal, both with Brown and Smith-Njigba. If I’m giving away one of the best receivers in the NFL, I need more certainty in return.
Not only that, this clearly doesn’t help a team with a hole at the running back position! While I acknowledge Lamb is a good fit on any dynasty roster, the trade partner needed to do a better job at thinking of goodness of fit. Lamb improves any wide receiving corps, but the points lost from Brown could turn this into more of a wash.
Instead, I’d seek something like the below. Here again the Trade Analyzer reports a discrepancy in value, but notable JSN’s ADP is fairly similar to that of Colts ball carrier Jonathan Taylor. Similar to Lamb, although perhaps without the same magnitude, Taylor would improve any fantasy running back corps, and should still have multiple years of PPR RB1 viability remaining.
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