Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier
“Forgotten Dynasty Youth” may sound like something of an oxymoron. This is dynasty football, after all, where lack of experience is viewed more as a tick mark in the “pros” column, as it should theoretically allow for additional longevity in the league. And yet the fantasy stock market is occasionally slow to correct itself, potentially yielding values on former blue chip youngsters. In this space I’ll be seeking to identify such assets.
So how am I defining youth? It’s a bit of a gray area. You can use years in the league, age, or amounts of total repetitions, with the latter particularly important at the running back position. But because youthful assets, particularly those selected early in the NFL Draft, tend to maintain dynasty staying power, a higher ADP doesn’t mean they’re not “forgotten.” As such any single metric may not be appropriate here. But one way or another these will be guys who were once highly esteemed, and who I think may have since fallen a bit off the radar.
Where there will be structure is in the tiers, which will be threefold and as follows:
- Top Tier: ADP < 84.0 (first seven rounds of a 12-team startup draft)
- Middle Tier: ADP > 84.1 and < 168.0 (rounds eight through 14 in a startup draft)
- Bottom Tier: ADP > 168.1 (the rest)
I’ll be looking at four players per tier. Let’s get started with the Top Tier!
Marvin Harrison Jr, WR ARI
ADP: 18.0
Age: 22 years
Nope, no practice swings before we step up to the plate here! Instead, I’ll lead with the 2024 rookie 1.01 pick, who was viewed as a first-round dynasty startup pick before he ever played a snap in the league. And while his rookie season was passable, we know that dynasty owners have short memories. As such he’s already “only” the WR4 of his own freshman class.
A 62-885-8 line is hardly the stuff of legends, but Harrison notably led the team in touchdowns, yards per catch and big plays, and he was second in targets, receptions and yards. Unfortunately, the passing game simply wasn’t very prolific, finishing in the back half of the league in attempts, yards, and touchdowns – given the fact the offense was also supporting star tight end Trey McBride, the slimmer pickings were understandable.
But his efficiency could still be projectable moving forward. Using my AIR metric evaluation (fraction of team’s PPR receiving points/fraction of team’s targets), Harrison checked in with a fine value of 1.10. It’s not a staggering trump card such as what Brian Thomas put forward in Jacksonville, but it asserts that with additional volume Harrison could yield even stronger dividends.
So ultimately the question becomes, how short is your memory? If Harrison was your rookie WR1 going into 2024, did enough happen in the past year to shake you of this notion? Yes, Thomas, Malik Nabers and Ladd McConkey outplayed him, but Harrison didn’t embarrass himself. So if you think this past year might have been more circumstantial than anything, continued belief that Harrison could reach his prior ADP heights could be warranted. As we saw with the below trio of 2023 first-round receivers, eventually what goes down may indeed come back up.
Chris Olave, WR NO
ADP: 48.0
Age: 24 years
Olave’s inclusion may come as a surprise to anyone familiar with my work, as I could never quite piece together why he was so highly valued. But then a funny thing happened – after maintaining a sterling ADP through the 2024 season despite injury and inefficient play, Olave’s status cratered in December and continued to crash last month.
I’ve heard the phrase “don’t hate the player, hate the ADP,” and I largely agree (even if my Penn State fandom makes me cringe hearing Olave’s name). And while I could understand the hype around Olave given his early success, I just didn’t see “first round startup draft” as smart spending of capital. Yes, he was putting up numbers – but through two seasons he provided fantasy returns as the PPR WR24 and PPR WR17. Again, good numbers, but they didn’t scream “projectability” to me.
Now? Olave is coming off the board as the WR26 per the February startup ADP. This is below either of his yearly finishes in his two healthy seasons, and despite the fact he’s only 24 years old. So no, even though I didn’t like him as a top 10-20 asset, his current valuation is a lot more digestible.
While still not cheap per se, if I can snag Olave for a mid-first-round pick in the 2025 rookie draft I’m snapping that up. The concussion concerns do temper my enthusiasm somewhat, but this is a player with known PPR WR2 upside. That’s a guaranteed fantasy starter for most any roster, and this window for purchase might not be open long.
Chuba Hubbard, RB CAR
ADP: 61.0
Age: 25 years
Over the past two seasons all Hubbard has done is compile 2,500 total yards, 82 receptions and 16 total scores. In doing so he’s averaged an efficient 4.3 YPC while handling just over 15 carries per game, effectively functioning as the offensive engine for the cellar-dweller Carolina Panthers. This allowed him to finish the 2024 season as the PPR RB15 despite missing two contests, and the RB13 on a weekly basis. Again, all for a team that finished with the fourth fewest total yards and tenth fewest points.
The Carolina brass realized they’d unearthed a diamond in the rough, bestowing upon Hubbard a four-year contract worth up to $33.2 million ($16.5 guaranteed). Continuing, his closest competition in his own backfield is likely going to be shelved for the majority of the 2025 season. Yet despite all this, we still have the following in the current DLF dynasty ADP.
Now I’ve played dynasty football long enough to know that I’ve got no one to blame but myself if I continue to be surprised by players who just can’t seem to get enough respect. But given all of the above, not only is Hubbard a bird in the hand, he’s the equivalent of a cassowary waiting to strike at you for your disrespect! I understand it’s the dynasty silly season, and rookies are kings – but even acknowledging my own personal preference for veteran players, I have to confess my surprise at the trio of unproven rookies (and even younger player Chase Brown) ahead of him.
I’m often guilty of attempting to play three-dimensional chess, occasionally getting myself checkmated in the process. But when a young player with proven production despite playing in a fantasy wasteland is priced lower than his fantasy value, this becomes more akin to dynasty checkers. You might even wait until your league is drafting and picks accrue the height of their value, but if anything resembling the below is attainable, run, don’t walk.
Josh Downs, WR IND
ADP: 67.8
Age: 23 years
Admittedly, as shown below, the Colts passing game is a confounding mess. But despite missing two more games than his receiving counterparts, it was the second-year man Downs who functioned as Indy’s nominal top threat.
In doing so he was staggeringly consistent. He didn’t have Alec Pierce’s weekly volatility, or Michael Pittman’s absence of scores, or their dual reliance upon a final week surge for viability. Instead, and while acknowledging there were indeed lows, he was the player who was more often than not providing you with usable numbers instead of losing weeks for you.
Was this something of a changing of the guard? It’s hard to say, and I’d wager 2025 will bring yet another fantasy quagmire for anyone investing in the Colts passing game (particularly if scattershot Anthony Richardson remains under center). But Downs has arguably already seized the mantle as the team’s top option, and has progressed and put up back-to-back solid campaigns in his first two years in the league. Turning only 24 in August, the current WR38 per the DLF dynasty ADP is nothing but upside.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Jordan Love and Jordan Addison - April 22, 2025
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 21, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Malik Nabers and Isiah Pacheco - April 15, 2025
