Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Trade Away Joe Burrow?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
For this week’s cold open, let’s talk about the Washington Commanders, and how they represent a perfect metaphor for the ripple effect. For context, this is a team that hadn’t had a winning season since 2016, hadn’t made the NFL playoffs since 2020, and hadn’t won a playoff game since 2005. And yet here they are on the precipice of the Super Bowl, having won away games in both the Wild Card and Divisional rounds.
What changed? Two things – first, the hiring of veteran head coach Dan Quinn stabilized the team’s leadership following Ron Rivera’s uneven tenure. Second, and likely more importantly, was the selection of presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels.
The Commanders were not viewed as a high-end roster, but Daniels resurrected the career of tight end Zach Ertz (this season’s PPR TE8), turned Olamide Zaccheaus into something of a real-life and fantasy commodity, and allowed us to finally answer the question “What happens if Terry McLaurin finally gets an NFL-caliber quarterback?” (Spoiler: he scores 13 touchdowns and finishes as the PPR WR7).
The operative point? One or two changes can have a massive ripple effect. Maybe it’s a trade you make (or don’t make) or a rookie you draft. Maybe it’s something out of your control, such as off-season movement of your players (just look to this past year’s group of free agent veteran running backs). In any event, there is still an element of “we don’t know what we don’t know” at this stage in the off-season, and change may be closer than we thought previously possible.
As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Let’s get to it!
From the Old-School webform…
Dough for Joe
In a 10-team, 1QB PPR league should I look to trade Joe Burrow while his market is hot, as my other quarterback is Jayden Daniels? I have no first-round picks and need running backs, and was considering trading Burrow for a couple of first-round picks if possible since this year’s draft class is heavy at running back. – Tyler in Kentucky
With Burrow finishing the year as the QB2 and Daniels the QB5, this is the definition of a good problem to have. And though signal callers in a 10-team, 1QB league wouldn’t traditionally carry significant value, Burrow was one of only three players averaging more than 26.0 PPG (assuming traditional scoring), which places him 5.1 PPG ahead of the QB11 Patrick Mahomes (QB11 is used here since you have are rostering two of the top-ten quarterbacks). So even though it’s a fairly deep, ‘onesie’ position, Burrow is still a game changer.
The DLF Trade Analyzer shows this thought process might have some legs, with Burrow being roughly equivalent to rookie pick 1.08. Of course, we know this valuation exists in a vacuum, and there may be additional factors in play such as your trade partner’s needs, his or her thoughts about this year’s rookie class, and even more basic instincts such as team and player fandom. So given this, the concept of receiving multiple first-round picks shouldn’t be thrown out. Still, it’s likely a bridge piece will be needed.
Here again per the Trade Analyzer, a yield of two late first-round picks would be the dynasty equivalent of a rental car, which is to say you’re just kicking the can down the road. Of course there could be alternative assets to the 2026 first-round pick, but I wanted to use this particular example to highlight a potential scenario.
While we await the dust to settle as to which rookies will be joining the NFL in the 2025 season, this represents a potential early look at the first two rounds of your draft. Depending on where your picks received via trade fall, you should be able to snag a ball carrier. But will it be enough for a player like consensus RB1 Ashton Jeanty?
Here again, the answer is maybe, but my gut tells me probably not. Jeanty is the big fish in a relatively small pond, and given the fact stud player rule smaller league settings, a trade partner might want more. Given this, and if Jeanty is indeed off the board, you should ensure you’re okay with the other positional options.
Back to that 2026 first-round pick, if it could indeed be leveraged in a potential deal. While it’s early, the question you need to be asking yourself is how you feel about the running backs (and all other players in general) in the 2026 class. These names could include ball carriers such as CJ Baxter, Justice Haynes, Rueben Owens, Jeremiyah Love and others. Depending on your position (do you fancy yourself a contender, or are maybe another year or more away), it may be prudent to instead try to collect future picks, which should come more cheaply and could yield potentially even better player.
Past that, there is of course the elephant in the room – trading for a player already in the NFL! Looking at a one-for-one trade, you could potentially yield something like the below.
Again, this is just one example. But Jacobs proved in 2024 that he is nowhere close to being done, looking downright defiant towards the season’s closing stretch, excepting a meaningless week 18 affair when seasonal matters were largely settled.
While there are rightful concerns about potential longevity given his (almost) 27 years of age and near 2000 NFL touches, he passed the eye test this season. If you are looking to maximize your potential over the next 1-2 years, a player like Jacobs could be one who helps you get to the finish line.
Going one step further, let’s consider another veteran ball carrier.
Here again the value doesn’t quite add up, but at the least it passes the ‘red face test.’ Joe Burrow is scoring at the height of the position, and the 2026 first-round pick is still a year away. Maybe your trade partner just watched the Ravens lose to the Bills and is already questioning Henry’s role on the team next season. This could devalue the veteran running back while propping up Burrow’s importance – much like Jacobs, given the fact Henry easily passed the eye test this season, there’s no reason to assume a return to Baltimore couldn’t yield similar dividends.
These are just some of the potential options. In a ten-team league, getting a veteran stud could prop up your chances next season, and if you’re able to add some side value in the form of future picks, you’re keeping the pipeline open. But at the end of the day you’re turning bench points (either Burrow’s or Daniels’) into additional points in your starting lineup – though depth is important, these are the exact types of deals I love exploring to maximize my team’s potential.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Trade Away Joe Burrow? - January 21, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Answering Your Dynasty Questions - January 14, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Sam Darnold, Rome Odunze and Some Player Assessments - January 7, 2025
