Dynasty Decision: AJ Brown
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
AJ Brown, WR PHI
Since entering the NFL, AJ Brown has been an incredibly efficient receiver who has produced fantastic fantasy numbers. Over the last two seasons, he has been remarkably consistent and, at times, a week-winning player. However, now entering the second phase of his career with changes within the Eagles underway, could it be the right time to consider moving on from the star receiver?
Previous Performance
As a rookie second-round pick, Brown hit the ground running, finishing as the WR21. He found a home where he perfectly complemented his offensive playcaller and quarterback. Both Arthur Smith and Ryan Tannehill wanted to lead a run-heavy attack that was prevalent within in-breaking routes off play-action, and Brown was able to win consistently. He was supremely efficient with the Titans, which buoyed his average raw volume. He posted 2.67 yards per route run in his second season, which was impressive. After the 2021 season, he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, where he continued his remarkable efficiency but now saw the raw volume to complement it.
2023 was somewhat of a tale of two halves. Through the first nine games of the season, he was the overall WR2, averaging 22.6 points per game. However, he was the WR36, averaging 10.8 points per game through the final nine weeks of the year. Despite that incredible start to the season, he still finished as the WR5, but it will likely have left a bitter taste in people’s mouths as he no-showed the fantasy playoffs.
Situation and Usage
Brown’s situation appears to be relatively stable. He is likely to be the clear target leader in Philadelphia again, and he has a stable quarterback under contract longer term. However, it could change drastically. Last season petered out for the Eagles, and unless they have a strong year this year, there could be some sweeping changes. Realistically, whatever happens, you can pencil Brown in for 120-150 targets, and that consistency year-long has incredible value.
Contract
Brown signed a four-year $100m contract as part of the trade across from the Titans. After this season, there is no remaining guaranteed money outside of the signing and option bonuses. This means that after this season, the Eagles will be able to save money by moving on from Brown. He has a $26.5m cap hit next season, which is quite manageable, and I would be shocked if they felt that was too punitive to retain him. However, his 2026 cap hit of $41.5m is astronomical. I would expect the Eagles to begin working on a long-term extension sooner rather than later to ease the cap hits in 2025 and 2026 while giving Brown more guaranteed long-term money.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR5 in March ADP and the seventh overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth two random first-round picks in a superflex league. Recent trades are below and are pretty aligned with the value in the trade analyzer:
Conclusion
Despite the fact he has been in the league for five seasons, Brown is still only 26, yet because of the thirst for youth in the dynasty, he has already started to fall out of people’s minds for the elite receivers. Last season was challenging for the Eagles; however, if you flipped Brown’s season, people would be incredibly excited about him heading into 2024. He was a league-winning player through the first half of the season, and people have almost forgotten that happened. I am confident in him as a player and very optimistic about his prospects over the next four to five seasons. He has hit the point of his career when people start to write him off, and he will fall down the rankings; however, the end is not approaching the horizon too soon.
As a contender, I think he is a fantastic target if you’re looking for an elite wide receiver to add. At this point in the off-season, everyone will be looking to add the young elite receivers and pass over Brown. If you can acquire him for some of the prices highlighted above or less than two random future first-round picks, you need to make that move. Perhaps you could pivot from a younger, hyped receiver with an additional asset, just like the trade above, where someone traded Jordan Addison and a second for Brown. That is a fantastic deal as you’re securing a far superior fantasy asset without giving up many additional assets while also not mortgaging the future, as Brown will have several years of elite production remaining.
If you’re rebuilding, Brown may not be an ideal target, as you will need to give up significant assets to acquire him. However, I wouldn’t actively sell him unless you’re receiving a significant overpay, as he will still be an elite fantasy producer when you are ready to compete.
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