Dynasty Perspective Through Fantasy Points Per Game: Tight Ends
The dynasty world can be an optical illusion, where everything is not what it appears. On the surface you can see the landscape, however looking deeper can uncover a new meaning, a different perspective. In this four-part series, I’ll be discovering the true takeaways from the dynasty world - through the contrast of overall fantasy points scored versus the fantasy points per game (FPPG) in 2023.
FPPG is key to understanding a player’s true performance. Why would we consider yearly totals when we play a weekly game? Focusing purely on the overall output misses key information such as games missed through injury, hence can skew outlook based on random events. Focusing on FPPG compares players on a level playing field, game versus game, to truly identify their fantasy effectiveness.
The fourth and final article in the series will focus on tight end, contrasting the overall output against the weekly output from 2023. The previous article on wide receiver can be found here.
TJ Hockenson, TE MIN
- TE4 Overall (219.0 fantasy points)
- TE2 in FPPG (14.6 fantasy points)
Entering his first full season as a Vikings player, on the back of a four-year $66m deal, Hockenson was primed to solidify his position as a top-three dynasty tight end. He was a key cog in a high-powered offense but 2023 was a strange season and it is hard to fully understand what Hockenson could become in this offense.
Injuries to star quarterback Kirk Cousins and elite wide receiver Justin Jefferson created an opportunity from a volume perspective, at the expense of increased defensive focus and an efficiency downgrade with the loss of Cousins. Despite these factors, Hockenson was excellent, delivering the TE4 overall finish and an impressive TE2 finish in FPPG.
Future uncertainty looms for Hockenson, who is recovering from a week 16 torn ACL injury of his own. Cousins is a free agent, Jefferson will be back to full health and reducing the overall target volume, plus exciting 2023 rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison figures to continue his growth heading into year two. In the macro market, Hockenson is still viewed as a top three tight end in dynasty value, however with the risk and uncertainty in his current profile, combined with the likelihood of a slow start to 2024, I envision Hockenson to be in the TE5-7 range entering the new season.
Verdict
My prediction is Hockenson will become the forgotten man in the tight end landscape, with the ascendance of young superstars Sam Laporta and Trey McBride, the arrival of generational 2024 rookie Brock Bowers and a return to health of Mark Andrews. Hockenson profiles as an extremely easy asset to acquire for a rebuilding dynasty roster, plus has immense appeal for sharp-minded contenders looking to pair him with an ageing veteran tight end - using the short-term veteran production until Hockenson is back at peak fantasy performance.
Hockenson is currently valued at the top of tier two, however will be battling to stay there throughout the off-season (Credit: DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer Values 2QB / Superflex)
Cade Otton, TE TB
