Ten IDP Stats You Need to Know After Week 14
Week fourteen! How time flies. It’s almost certainly win or go home territory in your league now, so don’t take your foot off the gas. Every bit of information is useful.
1. The Vikings have run single-LB packages on 63% of defensive snaps
Casual NFL fans still talk about the fact that teams rarely run base with three orthodox LBs on the field anymore as cutting-edge info. In reality, for years the interesting thing has been how often teams only have one (or fewer) LBs on the field.
This season, the Vikings are leading the way with only one LB on the field on more than six out of ten snaps. Also, your eyes do not deceive you. The Vikings have run absolutely zero snaps with three LBs on the field.
2. The Texans have run a big nickel secondary on 84% of their snaps
Similarly, casual NFL fans love to say “Nickel is the new base!” like it’s some sort of esoteric revelation. It’s been the case for well over a decade now.
What’s more interesting is how different teams approach nickel and dime packages. For the purposes of this Nickel (three corners and two safeties) and Big Nickel (two corners and three safeties) are separate. Because in IDP those two are separate positions (or should be) and we need details on how teams deploy them.
The 2024 Texans are basically a full-time three-safety defense. And make no mistake, all of them are real safeties with time spent playing deep and/or in the box. Not just in the slot.
Of the Texans safeties, Jalen Pitre is the most accustomed to the slot, but he also plays a lot in the box. Basically the overhang role that people think does not exist in the NFL.
3. Adam Butler has a pressure rate of just 5.2%
This is Butler’s seventh season in the NFL for three teams and he’s never been more than a journeyman. But this year really stands out in futility.
Three interior linemen have played more snaps than he has, but 31 have more pressures than he has.
And before you say “Well he’s not a pass rusher, he’s a nose tackle” he’s not good at stopping the run either. He habitually gets blocked out of the running game.
4. Jared Verse is second among all edges in pressures
Amazingly he’s just six pressures away from the top spot. That’s awesome for a rookie at this stage of the season. Even if this season is a relatively light year for individual edge pressure numbers.
The top individuals are currently around the 60-65 pressure mark through 12-13 games. That’s about 4.5-5 pressures per game. Pro rating that up to 17 games gives us about 75-85. Normally we’d expect league leaders to be quite a bit higher. Last year two edges finished over 100 pressures each.
So, although Verse’s pace is more akin to a good-not-great player, it’s still noteworthy that a rookie is anywhere near the top of the league in such a key metric.
5. Lavonte David has a really weird solo/assist ratio
This column has talked about David’s low tackle efficiency before. But this is a slightly deeper look into it.
When you just look at solos, David is a bit south of the line. But when you look at the assists he’s faaar down that curve. Also, not that the correlation coefficient for solos is higher. At 0.95 basically volume=solo tackles. For assists 0.85 is still a very good indicator, but obviously less so. Assists are weird.
6. This week Brandin Echols recorded ten solo tackles – and zero assists
Continuing the solo:assist story, Echols had a noteworthy week last week. And it’s a fun one to look at as an example.
He led all corners with a whopping ten tackles but failed to record an assist. Madness. And remember that this is PFF data. It’s not local stat crews just handing stuff out on a whim.
7. Budda Baker led all defenders in W14 with 19 tackles
Nineteen tackles! In a week. Baker has been the biggest boom/bust tackler in the NFL this season. It’s not that those 7-9 tackle weeks are bad. But next to those teen-weeks they just feel… disappointing, don’t they?
8. Chase Young recorded 12 pressures last week – and zero sacks
Young has been an enormously disappointing IDP. Specifically this season, but basically through his whole career too.
But whisper it – he’s been really good this year. Just a bit unlucky. But his play has been if not elite, really impressive. But because his pressure:sack ratio is so off he’s going to be seen as a continuing disappointment.
Right now, he looks like a prime off-season target, and he’s worth sending out lowball offers for now too.
9. On average, each NFL team has used its most common defensive XI on 34 snaps so far this season
Yes, that’s per season. Not on a weekly basis so far this season. This season in total.
Even now, with all the data and information available to us people often think of defenses as a starting XI with a bunch of dudes who play some snaps when those starters are tired. It’s absurd of course, but the fact that most team’s most-used defense has only seen an average of 34 snaps across 13 games is eye-opening.
10. Next week’s Pennsylvania showdown is likely to be a low-volume game
The Eagles’ defense has averaged 63.2 snaps per game this season and the Steelers’ 62.7. That places them 24th and 26th in average snaps per week.
And remember NFL games fluctuate quite a bit in volume. Some games can and do have a much lower total number of snaps than others. This is not a zero-sum game where every game is about 135 snaps and it’s just the ratio that moves.
It’s a tough thing to predict, and it should only be a detail in your process, but when both those defenses play below-average volume next week and therefore don’t get the tackles you want, don’t be shocked.
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- Ten IDP Stats You Need to Know After Week 14 - December 13, 2024
