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Dynasty Film Review: Audric Estime, Jermaine Burton and Adonai Mitchell

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Adonai Mitchell | © Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Bruce Matson Posted On November 16, 2024
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We are rolling into Week 11 and some fantasy gamers are out of the running for the fantasy playoffs while other players are reordering the chairs on the Titanic hoping they squeak into the playoffs without a catastrophe hurting their ability to win the league.

Today we are going to look at three rookies who saw some extra work last week. All of them showed some promise during draft season. With some time to develop, we could see one or more of these rookies carve out a larger role in the future.

Audric Estime, RB DEN

We are not seeing many rookie running backs break out this season. The injuries at the running back position as a whole have been reduced this season, preventing some of the handcuff rookie running backs from seeing the field. The 2024 NFL Draft class did not produce a deep talented running back class. We are not going to see many rookie running backs usurp starting running backs in 2024.

Audric Estime finally got his opportunity to prove himself with 14 carries against a stout Kansas City Chiefs defense which is allowing just 14 PPR points a game to opposing running backs. It wasn’t the flashiest performance since he could only muster 53 yards on the ground.

Considering we only have Bucky Irving right now as our rookie running back churning out fantasy points on the regular, we will take anything we can get. The Broncos play Falcons in week 11 then following that matchup with the Raiders in week 12. Both games are a lot more advantageous for running backs to score fantasy points.

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It was tough sledding against the Chiefs’ defense. We saw a small sample of what Estime can do on the field. He has very good vision and patience with finding the running lane. There were multiple times when he was able to get skinny to make it through a tight crease.

The play above is an example of his ability to read the play and attack the defense’s leverage. At the hand-off, you see two holes open. The hole in front of him is not optimal because the defender has inside leverage off his block and has the potential to peel off and kill the play.

To the outside, we have the full-back (Michael Burton) sealing the outside by blocking the linebacker. This creates a large lane to the outside, making it the right choice for Estime to run through.

He hits the hole and cuts up the seam. Estime does not take the run toward the sideline because we have a defender crashing down to disrupt the play. From here he hits the hole and takes what the defense gives him until he is met by a gang of tacklers in the second level of the defense.

Estime has the skill set to emerge as the team’s lead back by the end of the season. Sean Payton mentioned that Estime has earned more work in future games. He has been saying this for the last few weeks and Payton has gradually given him more work each week.

Dynasty gamers right now are waiting to see what he does on the field with more work. The market isn’t hot for him yet. There has been more talk about his potential. More people are searching for his name and adding him off the waiver wire in redraft. Almost 50,000 people added him off waivers on Sleeper. There’s a chance he could be more liquid right now on the dynasty market.

However, his price could drastically increase if he performs well. We have softer matchups against the Falcons this week who are averaging 26 PPR points per game to running backs in their last three games. Then next week he will play the Raiders who rank ninth in the league by allowing 20.1 PPR fantasy points per game to running backs.

There’s a good chance with a much larger workload that Estime produces in the box score in these games, providing the opportunity to sell. The buying window is over unless the dynasty manager just wants him off their roster. The market is watching him and they aren’t going to let him go for a discount until managers see more from him with a much larger workload. Like always, it’s always good to kick the tires, but more than likely liquidity will be hampered until we get a clearer picture.

Jermaine Burton, WR CIN

Burton received more playing time against the Baltimore Ravens in week 10. This led to him running 32 routes for a 53.3% route participation rate. He caught one of his five targets. Even though he didn’t blow up the box score it was refreshing to see him out on the field getting some reps.

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Burton saw a 17.8 average depth of target in this game with 98 air yards. The Bengals like to run him deep and Burrow will look his way when he feels the time is right. The pre-snap gives us a single-high look with the defensive back flashing inside shade. Burton is going to take the outside and streak up the sideline. The defensive back does a good job keeping up with him. It doesn’t matter to Burrow because if you are even you are leaving and he aims to toss the deep ball halfway through the route. The target misses and we are unable to convert the play.

We have seen this a few times with Burton in this game. What we learn is that the team is willing to stretch him deep and Burrow is willing to toss him targets. If he gets more playing time and a larger sample of deep balls, the odds are saying that he will bring a few of those home.

Burton is almost an afterthought in dynasty. He could be categorized as a penny stock with immense upside as he develops with the Bengals. Some might be looking to sell if he gains a considerable amount of value and others are looking to buy now to get him at the cheap cost. He would need to develop and show more on the field for his value to increase. However, there’s more glory buying on the cheap before that happens considering the risk.

Adonai Mitchell, WR IND

 

Mitchell has been looking good all season long. He just hasn’t been on the field as much as we would want for fantasy football production. With Micheal Pittman out he ran on 94.9 percent of the routes. He caught all six of his targets for 71 yards.

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In the play above the defense is showing a cover three look. The indicator here is that we have a one-high safety with the corners playing off. The linebackers are telling with their leverage to the outside. Mitchell releases from the line and heads downfield. His break is smooth on the comeback, making it hard for the cornerback to redirect to get back to the play. The ball is in the air after the break. Mitchell comebacks back to the ball and extends out to make the play.

This play shows Mitchell’s my-ball mentality and his willingness to break back for the football. Joe Flacco knew he was going to target Mitchell during the pre-snap as he looked his way after the play-action.

We could see Mitchell’s price rapidly increase if dynasty gamers felt more confident in his work rate and the Colts’ quarterback play. Right now, he’s at a stalemate on the market. His value hasn’t peaked yet, but we know the steak is in the pan. We can hear it sizzle; the steak just needs to start cooking.

Bruce Matson
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