Dynasty Trending Observations: Christian McCaffrey, Justin Herbert and Terry McLaurin

Christian McCaffrey | © David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Michael Moore Posted On September 12, 2024

There was a plethora of developments – both on and off the field – that will have an impact on dynasty teams. Below are just a few from a busy first week of the season that should be monitored.

Cursed

So…when are we gonna talk about this pic.twitter.com/OftENL0Dxv

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) September 10, 2024

In a weekend full of big news, perhaps none was bigger than Christian McCaffrey suddenly being made inactive in Week One. The 49ers managed to wait until the last possible second – and well after fantasy lineups could be changed – to announce CMC needed (at least) a week of rest for a lingering calf injury. The most immediate impact was on those fantasy matchups that were yet to be decided and hinged on McCaffrey’s Week One stat line. But there are long-term implications to this as well.

Over the course of McCaffrey’s seven-year professional career, he’s been fairly healthy. He had a two-season stretch in 2020-21 where he played just 10 games total but has played in at least 16 games in every other campaign. And he was good. Really good. Since becoming the full-time starter in his sophomore season, McCaffrey never finished worse than third in fantasy scoring among running backs (excluding those two injury-marred seasons). Last season was no different, as he totaled over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns. CMC dynasty managers had every reason to expect another good fantasy season out of him, until now.

Dynasty Impact: No player can avoid getting older, especially running backs, and McCaffrey is no different. This calf injury kept the 28-year-old McCaffrey out of most of training camp and the preseason and apparently wasn’t healed enough to let him play. It could potentially keep him out of Week Two and there’s always the possibility it flares up later in the season. It’s not the outlook you want for, literally, the oldest running back when it comes to dynasty rankings.

Complicating matters now is McCaffrey’s replacement in Week One – Jordan Mason – who looked good as the starter. He acted as the bellcow, turning 28 carries into 147 yards and a touchdown. When McCaffrey comes back, there’s every reason for the 49ers to use Mason more to spell McCaffrey and keep both fresh.

For McCaffrey dynasty managers, there will never be a better time to move on from him. He may not have provided as big of a return as he would have before Week One, but he could be valuable for a win-now team in your league. Do it now before it’s too late.

Safe Charger

Jim Harbaugh has his J.J. McCarthy pic.twitter.com/fXRqmYLg24

— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 8, 2024

We thought this might happen. With the arrival of new head coach Jim Harbaugh also came a new mentality on offense, namely a more balanced attack led by the run. And sure enough, it was a near 50/50 split as quarterback Justin Herbert had 26 pass attempts compared to 27 rush attempts by the Chargers backfield. It led to a win, which is why Harbaugh was brought in, but it could be a disaster for dynasty teams led by Herbert.

Those dynasty teams lucky enough to have drafted Herbert as a rookie in 2020 were blessed with three straight top-ten fantasy seasons to start his career. He averaged nearly 4,700 passing yards and over 30 touchdowns in each of those seasons and showed no signs of slowing down. Then injury struck in his fourth year which not only caused him to miss games but, thanks to a pile-up of losses, ultimately led to the dismissal of former head coach Brandon Staley, resulting in Los Angeles bringing in Harbaugh.

This brings us to Week One of the 2024 season which saw the Chargers get a decisive win over the Raiders but also showed they don’t need Herbert slinging it around to be successful. What does this mean to his dynasty value?

Dynasty Impact: For those paying attention, Herbert’s dynasty value had already been in decline, thanks to his injury-plagued 2023 season followed by the arrival of Harbaugh.

And if Week One is any indication, Herbert’s value could drop even further, finishing outside the top-20 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. It seems likely that he won’t be able to replicate his passing numbers from the first three seasons but he should still maintain some value. He’s just 26 years old which is a baby when it comes to dynasty leagues.

If anything, Herbert may just be a serviceable QB2 in superflex leagues. But his days as an elite QB1, or at least, a starter in 1QB dynasty leagues may be over.

Terry was scary on Sunday

Terry McLaurin with speed to burn down the left sideline, overthrown by rookie Jayden Daniels. pic.twitter.com/oXc571Epui

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 9, 2024

Terry McLaurin could probably best be described as the tortoise in the NFL version of the ‘Tortoise and the Hare’ fable. He’s steadily been a WR2 when it comes to fantasy scoring and you could count the number of games he’s missed on one hand. He’s never had more than 1,118 receiving yards in a season but also never had less than 919 and he’s scored either four or five touchdowns in four of his five professional seasons. Slow and steady was winning the race.

So when Washington finally upgraded the quarterback position with Heisman Trophy winner and second overall pick Jayden Daniels, most thought McLaurin’s dynasty value could level up. After all, he was/is clearly the top target in the passing game for an offense that not only now had Daniels but former Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator.

But if Week One is any indication, it may be a long season for McLaurin and his dynasty value might have already peaked. The post above is just one example of McLaurin and Daniels not being on the same page but his stat line is another. McLaurin saw just four targets, the same as running backs Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson and tight end Zach Ertz. Of the four targets, McLaurin pulled down just two for 17 yards and contributed nothing to his dynasty teams.

Dynasty Impact: While it’s too early to hit the panic button, it’s not too early to start thinking about it. McLaurin was never an elite option but at least he was reliable. If he keeps putting up duds like he did in Week One, he won’t even be that.

His value was already trending in the wrong direction during last season when he hit 28 years old and seemed to be on a (at the time) dead-end team.

And while the team might be getting better, it may be too late for McLaurin’s dynasty managers to take advantage. He’s not good enough to get a good return on the dynasty trade market which means you’ll have to hold for now. And if you’re a prospective McLaurin dynasty manager, I’d recommend looking elsewhere at least until the Commanders can prove they can support a fantasy-relevant passing attack.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.