Dynasty Trending Observations: Jayden Reed and Patrick Mahomes slumping, Ja’Marr Chase the WR1?
For most dynasty leagues, the playoffs are set to start this week. Playoff teams will be focused on winning a championship while others will start their off-season now. Below are the top trending topics this week for playoff and non-playoff teams.
Reed It and Weep
Jayden Reed managers.. this is a safe space 🫂 pic.twitter.com/NrWcI0IPjk
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) December 6, 2024
We had such high hopes for Packers receiver Jayden Reed heading into the 2024 season. As a rookie last year, he led the team in receptions (64), receiving yards (793), and tied for the team lead in touchdowns (8), and appeared to be the top option in the Packers’ passing game. And through the first four games of this season, it looked accurate as he had two games with 138-plus yards and a touchdown and was a top-10 fantasy receiver. But since then, he’s had exactly two games with more than 55 yards receiving, six games with no scores, and his zero reception for zero yards performance this last week is the icing on the cake.
The latest stat line was rock bottom as Reed can’t get any worse. On the season, he’s averaging less than five receptions per game and just 53 yards per game. He’s a very ‘meh’ player in every sense of the word. So what do his dynasty managers do with this?
Dynasty Impact: After that first month of the 2024 season, Reed’s dynasty value shot up to borderline WR1 status. And why not? The Packers offense looks set for the foreseeable future with quarterback Jordan Love looking like a solid QB1 and the offense looked like it could support a WR1.
But the last few weeks have dashed those hopes. Not that Reed isn’t still the top Packers receiver, he technically is in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. But the Packers don’t pass the ball, at least not this year. They’re second-to-last in the league in pass attempts per game at just 29.2. Not to mention the other Packers pass catchers who are vying for targets and also very young and good. This isn’t to say the Green Bay offense will revolve around Josh Jacobs and the run game forever – he’ll turn 27 before next season – but it will for the foreseeable future make Reed unreliable. If you’re able to get WR2 value for him in the off-season, I would pull the trigger.
The King is Dead, Long Live the King
Most passing TD, last two years:
Jared Goff 55
Baker Mayfield 55
Lamar Jackson 53
Jordan Love 53
Josh Allen 49Most INTs, last two years:
Patrick Mahomes 25
Josh Allen 23
Baker Mayfield 23
Jared Goff 22
Jordan Love 22— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) December 8, 2024
We’re truly entering a phase of Patrick Mahomes II’s career that we haven’t seen. Not so much for the ‘real-life’ perspective where the Chiefs are currently the top seed in the AFC and have lost just one game all year.
Rather, we’re getting, statistically speaking, a pedestrian-looking Mahomes. He’s currently on pace for a record-low number of touchdowns as a starter but a career-high in interceptions. The 245 passing yards he averages is not only 45 fewer yards than his career average but less than his career-low last year. Through three-quarters of the season, he’s currently outside the top 10 when it comes to fantasy scoring among quarterbacks.
How did we get here? It feels like Mahomes’ stat line has gotten gradually worse over the last three seasons. Some would argue the departure of receiver Tyreek Hill is the cause but that would ignore the fact that the first season after Hill left, Mahomes actually was the top fantasy quarterback. Maybe it’s tight end Travis Kelce finally slowing down? Save for the fact that Kelce finished as the top fantasy tight end two seasons ago and was still top three last year.
Whatever the reason, Mahomes dynasty managers enter the off-season at a crossroads with what to do with him.
Dynasty Impact: The dropoff of Mahomes’ title as a top dynasty asset has been swift.
But that’s what happens when you’re not slinging it like you used to. Mahomes has just two 300-yard passing games and six multi-touchdown games this season compared to 2021 when he had 10 such games of 300 passing yards and 12 with two touchdowns or more.
There’s also the influx of young quarterback talent that is making Mahomes less special. Not that there’s a quarterback out there that can match him statistically but they can come close and there’s more of them, making Mahomes less valuable for fantasy purposes.
For current Mahomes dynasty managers, he’s a hold with an eye on moving him. For others, you’re better off drafting a quarterback of the future or shopping for a cheaper, but still valuable, veteran.
The King is Dead, Long Live the King, Part II
Ja'Marr Chase's Triple Crown pursuit:
Leads by 6 receptions
Leads by 149 yards
Leads by 6 TDs— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) December 10, 2024
No matter what happens down the stretch, it’s nice to see two elite receivers at the top of their game. Both Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have been elite options since entering the league in 2021 and 2020 respectively and have made it hard to determine who is better.
Let’s start with the post above and Chase. He’s had 1,000-yard seasons every year and finished as a fantasy WR1. But he’s turned on the afterburners this season, closing in on career-highs in receptions, and yards and already scoring 15 times on his way to the receiving triple crown.
And if there was any receiver who could still claim to be the ‘better’ dynasty option, it would be Jefferson. Returning from an injury that kept him out of half of last season, Jefferson has already topped 1,100 yards through just 13 games. Ironically, the 90 yards-per-game he averages would be his lowest since his rookie season and would drop his all-time leading average of nearly 97 yards per game.
So who should end the season atop dynasty rankings?
Dynasty Impact: While you can’t go wrong with either one, there is an argument to be made for who would be the more reliable dynasty option going forward and why one of them holds that title now.
Justin Jefferson, as mentioned above, is the current leader in yards per game at 97. What’s more impressive is he’s been able to do it with different quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins was exclusively his quarterback for the first three seasons of his career but he now has Sam Darnold under center this season and is still putting up WR1 numbers.
And while it’s unlikely Chase isn’t back in Cincinnati next year, the fact he doesn’t have a long-term deal yet means it’s a possibility. Chase has only known Joe Burrow at quarterback whether it was Cincinnati or his breakout season at LSU. We don’t know how he’d perform with another quarterback and for this reason, we have to approach his dynasty value with a bit of caution. Jefferson would be the pick.
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