Dynasty Decision: Christian Kirk
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Christian Kirk, WR JAC
To many people, Kirk is a forgotten dynasty asset. You never feel great about rostering him, but he presents excellent value as a flex option with a ceiling to be much more than that. Does this mean he is a hidden gem grossly undervalued, or is he just an expensive roster clogger?
Previous Performance
As an early second-round pick in Arizona, Kirk was expected to be an impact rookie. However, he took a little while to get out of the gates. He produced 10.3 points per game on 5.66 targets per game. He also missed four games with a broken foot, which ended his season early.
Throughout the next three seasons, Kirk flashed in spells but struggled to command the target volumes necessary as he played second fiddle to Larry Fitzgerald and then DeAndre Hopkins, respectively. In his final season with the Cardinals, Kirk finally managed to play a full season. With Hopkins missing time, he led the team in targets, which resulted in a WR26 overall finish.
Given the lack of competent receivers who hit free agency, Kirk received an astounding contract from the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were keen to build around their young franchise quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. Kirk commanded incredible volume in his first season with Jacksonville, seeing 133 targets, which led to a phenomenal WR12 finish. He could finally be utilized as the speed slot receiver his skill set is suited to be. He could threaten teams deep without having to battle with press coverage. Unfortunately, building off his breakout 2022 campaign hit a roadblock when Kirk suffered a groin tear, and his season finished early again.
Situation and Usage
The Jaguars have undergone a large-scale transformation in the receiver room over the last 12 months. After a failed experiment with Calvin Ridley abruptly ended when he signed with Tennessee and Zay Jones was released following the 2023 season, the Jaguars receiving room looked a little bare. The Jaguars addressed this by adding Gabe Davis to free agency and then spending a first-round pick on Brian Thomas Jr in the draft. Both players are big-bodied outside receivers who threaten to take the top off the defense. This will allow Kirk to continue to play out of the slot where he has been at his best.
All three receivers primarily utilized in downfield roles could limit Kirk’s ability to see high-volume targets, as he will likely see more underneath and intermediate targets. He has the opportunity to see a high-volume role and become the player Lawrence leans on heavily.
Contract
As mentioned, Kirk signed a much larger contract than many expected when he signed a four-year $72m contract with the Jaguars. He is still playing on that contract, which will expire after the 2025 season. In 2025 Kirk will have a $27.2m cap hit, and $13.5m is guaranteed. The likelihood is that he will push for some form of extension after the conclusion of the 2024 season in order to avoid playing in the final year of his contract. The Jaguars’ confidence in extending him will largely depend on how well Kirk plays this season. If he plays well, they will want to extend him to a mid-market receiver contract around the $20m per year mark. If he disappoints, they will likely allow him to play out the 2025 season or look to release him and save on cap space in 2025.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR41 in January ADP and the 97th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the equivalent of the 2.01 or two future seconds in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Kirk is a challenging evaluation. He is fairly valued around a late first-round pick, and you can make an argument about his potential outcomes in 2024. He could be a volume-heavy target in an improving offense and, therefore, produce fantastic PPR numbers. Alternatively, he could struggle to carve out a role as a speed slot alongside two big-bodied deep threats and end up seeing a reduced snap share if he gets taken off the field in two wide receiver sets.
I wouldn’t be actively looking to acquire Kirk. While I believe there is a high ceiling on his range of outcomes, the potential floor and risk in his profile make me want to approach other options in a similar price range. I think if you are an average team looking for an upside swing that could catapult you to a contender, then there is an argument that a player like Kirk could be your lottery ticket at a relatively cheap price.
However, in most scenarios, I would be looking to pivot off of Kirk to find a more stable asset who doesn’t have the bust potential. Pivoting from Kirk to a player like Diontae Johnson or Terry McLaurin, who are safer bets, may pay off long-term. You could also pivot to one of the younger ascending players like Keon Coleman or Ricky Pearsall, although it may make sense to wait until the start of the season for that move when people have moved outside of their young player obsession.
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