Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Kyler Murray
Personal bias is always hard to get around. If you go by every article, podcast, or YouTube show I have contributed to, I have a huge bias towards Tee Higgins, for example. He is one of my favorite players and I gravitate towards valuing him higher than most because of that. I have a little bit of reality in my vision – my love knows bounds. I know that Higgins won’t be THE dynasty WR1. I know that Ja’Marr Chase is a better receiver and fantasy asset but when we get down to tiering players and their values, I might end up with Higgins either a tier above or at the top of the tier where most people have him.
There are varying degrees to the bias I place on players. Sometimes it can be a tie breaker or make me just value a trade offer enough to hit the accept button. Those aren’t really the cases we really need to worry about. Even though bias may be a little irrational, that is at least a rational level of irrationality. My Higgins bias is pretty strong but still not something that really worries me because I still have that level-headed reality somewhere in the back of my mind reminding me that even though I run most of the leagues I play in I cannot make players I love magically score more points. Well, I can, but people would probably leave the league pretty quickly.
The subject of this article is a player I have found myself raising up his value pretty decently past where it seems the community has him landing. While my personal feelings for him aren’t as strong as they are for Higgins, my feelings about his fantasy output and dynasty value don’t have the same rationality. The player I am excited to look into today is…
Kyler Murray, QB ARI
I can easily picture a world where Murray finishes the season as THE QB1. This is what I meant earlier when I said that my bias doesn’t have the same limits as it does for other players. I personally think of him as a top six quarterback at the lowest.
May 1QB ADP has Murray ranked as QB10. Amusingly enough, QB10 happens to be the lowest points-per-game finish in Murray’s career, and that came last year while recovering from a major knee injury. After he was injured towards the end of the 2022 season, when there was a strong amount of discontent in the Cardinals front office, it was hard to hold a strong value on Murray. In September 2023 ADP, the first ADP of the NFL season, our guy was ranked as QB13 and player 27 overall. Of course, this is a little skewed knowing that we would be at least half of the season without seeing him on the field but falling to the third round felt craterous.
The final ADP of the season, February 2024, showed Murray actually fall one positional spot to QB14 but rise up to player 20 overall. I am greatly looking forward to May Superflex ADP to be revealed so we can see how much adding Marvin Harrison Jr to the team will affect the QB’s value. I am even more excited to go into the DLF Trade Finder and the DLF Trade Analyzer to find some trades about my newly biased player and see just how they meet my feelings.
12 team Superflex PPR start 10
Since this is an article based around my personal biases, it would behoove me to inform you all that Trevor Lawrence is another player of which I am a big fan. I am also a big fan of the fact that I just got to use the phrase “It would behoove me to inform you” in real life. I believe in Lawrence’s talents and believe in the Jaguars working to put the best talent around him. Even my love for the former Clemson quarterback isn’t enough to make this deal at all close to me. When talking about players at the value level of these two, thirds and fourths will almost never weigh into the value evaluation. This means in my mind this might as well be a straight swap. That being the case I will take Murray every time here.
12 team 1QB PPR start 8
There are a few factors that have to go into play when looking at this deal. First, trading for a quarterback in a 1QB league is always a little tricky. Supply and demand don’t meet in the middle at a 12-team, one quarterback league. The supply of usable quarterbacks far outweighs the demand. To me, if you are going to trade for a quarterback in a 1QB league it should be for a game changer. In that case, check that box here. Next, the valuation itself always becomes very difficult. Very few QBs feel like they should be worth giving up a first-round rookie pick but it still seems like it is expected for most – reaffirming my thought that if you are going to trade for a QB it should be someone worthwhile. I believe Murray is worth a first-round rookie pick in this format. We can check that box as well. With two out of two checkboxes marked off, it appears I am easily on the Murray side of this deal.
12 team superflex PPR TE premium start 10
This trade looks like far too much fun not to talk about. Top-tier QBs, the 1.01, and a community favorite wide receiver are all being moved in one deal. I am not going to lie – I am a little jealous of what the feeling of hitting that accept button must have felt like.
There are a few things here to talk about. First, while it is very close, the 1.01 is worth more in the analyzer than Murray. I disagree with this. Like I said before, my bias on this one might make me a little too high on him but I would take Murray over Caleb Williams, or whoever you would take at the 1.01. Next is the absolute masterful tier-down from a stud quarterback. From a value perspective, the only thing you can do when you have a player who hit their max value is move them. Of course, you can just keep them on your team and enjoy all the points you will be scoring but sometimes that isn’t what is in the best interest of your roster. Here this manager took a top-three quarterback, added a very nice wide receiver, and a pretty good draft pick and turned them into, even rationally speaking, a very capable QB1 on their roster and a pick that will most likely be used on a player who is ranked ahead of Murray in ADP as of this moment.
Losing DJ Moore and the 2.01 does sting a bit but wide receiver production is much easier to replace than top-tier quarterback production. I love this deal on both sides. My Murray love and my feelings on that side of the deal have already been discussed. Then, if you are a person who doesn’t feel the same about Murray as I do, this must feel like an absolute win. You get to tier up to a top-three quarterback and you get a wide receiver you can plug into your lineup every week and feel good about it (though you just traded away the pick that will be used to draft the guy throwing him the ball) and the 2.01 this year looks as if it will be a player at a level that should be an instant producer.
Last week when looking into the value of Drake London, I was surprised to see the balance of his value was pretty close to on par with how I felt about him. This week I am not surprised to find out that I was correct in my assumption that I value the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals much higher than the general public. The off-season brings us many opportunities to find the players we enjoy having on our rosters and being able to find narratives to help spin their value without the messiness of those pesky points being involved. I have already acquired many Murray shares since last season and it looks like I might be going out to try for some more.
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