Three Sets of Dynasty ADP Doppelgangers

There are two different types of twins, identical and fraternal. Identical twins are practically the same person and even look exactly the same. Fraternal twins just happen to be two children born at the same time, differing inside and out. While those two statements might not be completely medically accurate, they are close enough for a fantasy football article.

When talking about dynasty value, and in this case ADP value, these two sets of twins still exist. There are times when you see two players whose ADPs are the same and you just can’t decide, you can’t tell them apart. You might as well just flip a coin to decide which player to draft. Then there are the ADP twins who are fraternal. True, their ADPs are the same and true, their values are right next to each other, but when you look at them you know right away who is who and which one you prefer.

We are going to look at three sets of dynasty fraternal twins, aka dynasty doppelgangers).

Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua (ADP: 10)

Here we are in the first round of our drafts and we have a tough decision to make. Which second-year player do we want to roll with to start the build of our new team? With both of these players being young and studly, I am not sure there is a wrong answer here. Gibbs finished the 2023 season as the RB7 in points per game with 16.65 and Puka Nacua finished his record-breaking rookie season also at seventh at his position with 17.78 points per game. The fun part of this conundrum is that these two players are walking into situations almost identical to how they ended the season.

Both of these players face a similar issue: will the reigning veteran get too many touches and bring down these sophomore studs? David Montgomery and Cooper Kupp (both when healthy) had very evenly split workloads with their rookie counterparts but are we worried about either of them more than the other? I am honestly not worried about either. The Lions will run the ball enough that Gibbs will still get his touches and even if Kupp returns to form there will be more than enough targets for Nacua to shine.

This decision comes down to what the draft will look like from here. This area of the draft is flooded with talented, young wide receivers like AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Malik Nabers. According to ADP we just saw Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey go off the board and the next running backs are Jonathan Taylor at 18.00 and De’Von Achane at 20.25. Given these specific situations, I would absolutely feel more comfortable drafting Gibbs and one of the other wide receivers. I believe Gibbs has what it takes to be an elite-producing fantasy running back for years to come and even though my bias usually leans me towards taking the wide receiver, I would roll with the running back here.

Sam LaPorta and DeVonta Smith (ADP: 23.50)

First let’s look at these two players side by side in terms of production. LaPorta finished the 2023 season with 81 receptions, 860 yards, and 9 touchdowns. The Lions tight end was not the first tight end drafted in the NFL draft or our rookie drafts but ended his rookie year having one of the best fantasy tight end seasons. Smith ended the 2023 season with 81 receptions, 1066 yards, and 7 touchdowns. It appears ADP is not the only way these two players are alike – their production last season was almost identical. Both of these players are also returning to situations almost unchanged from last season.

So how do we choose? Honestly, this decision could be easy. Is there any tight end premium scoring in your league? Or even points per first down? If the answer is yes then the answer is LaPorta. If you don’t have any sort of tight end premium, the answer is still LaPorta. It hurts me not to choose Smith but having a top-tier player at a position where you only have to start one player is one of the greatest advantages you can have in fantasy football. Just due to the supply and demand of their positions, it will be easier to find replacement points at wide receiver later in your startup drafts than it would be for tight ends.

The only time I might lean towards drafting Smith over LaPorta is if you need to start a minimum of three wide receivers. If every team is being forced to start at least three wide receivers then the supply thins out sooner than it normally would. That being said, I still think you take the stud and figure out your depth later.

Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs (ADP: 61.50)

While the first set of ADP twins was a flashy Pay Per View title bout, this is a grimy, old-man slugfest. These are two players whose value won’t rise to new heights regardless of how well they score. Potential is not a topic in this conversation – that has all been realized already – instead we are here to score points! Adams finished the 2023 season as the WR18 in points per game with 15.6 and Jacobs finished as RB18 with 13.9. Plenty has changed for both of these players coming into the 2024 season though. These ADP twins are no longer teammates as Jacobs signed with the Green Bay Packers and the Raiders signed Gardner Minshew as their new starting quarterback to replace Aidan O’Connell.

One of the biggest differences between the wide receiver and running back positions is age/career expectancy. Adams is playing in his age-31 season and Jacobs in his age-26 season. While there is a five-year age difference, their respective positions almost even that out for me. Chances are you will at best get two years of fantasy-relevant production out of both of these players so age is one distinction we do not need to take into account. To me, this comes down to who you feel more confident in. The answer is decidedly Davante Adams for me. Adams has always shown to have the elite talent of getting open which gives him the ability to have a safe fantasy floor while having the upside of double-digit touchdowns every single season. Jacobs should have the volume to be a safe fantasy asset but we haven’t seen a running back excel in a Jordan Love-led offense.