Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
We’re inching closer to the NFL Draft and the rumor mill is heating up! By my count, there will be six quarterbacks taken in the first four picks, and roughly 18 receivers will fly off the board on day one! Please don’t check that math…
In seriousness, it’s always a good time to remind yourself of your trusted NFL and fantasy resources around this time. To that point, make sure you’re continuing to peruse DLF’s rookie profiles in advance of the draft as we continue to chronicle the incoming class.
Let’s get to it!
From the Old-School Webform…
Action Jackson
In my 12-team, PPR superflex league I have the #2 pick and Lamar Jackson is in the upcoming draft. Is it indefensible to take Marvin Harrison instead of a quarterback? Is there any reason to hold Trey Lance or Kenny Pickett? -Charles in Wisconsin
To the first part of the question, it is absolutely defensible to take Ohio State standout Marvin Harrison Jr. ahead of a quarterback in a superflex setting. To that point, many of my recent editions of the Mailbag have probed nearly this very query! I’ll say it before and I’ll say it again, even though quarterback is king in a superflex league setting, the possibility of nabbing a generational talent at another position can be equally or even more important.
With that said, you’re not taking Harrison over this quarterback…
According to the current superflex ADP, Jackson is in a dead heat with Eagles signal caller Jalen Hurts for the third player taken overall with an ADP of 3.75. He’s being selected before every single receiver, including elite dynasty asset Justin Jefferson. Perhaps the best dual threat quarterback in the league and still firmly in his prime at 27 years of age, I have absolutely no argument with any of that. The DLF Trade Analyzer agrees, as shown below, even using Jefferson as a surrogate for Harrison. Truth be told unless there’s something I’m missing about the league format, I would be surprised if he even makes it to you at pick 1.02!
As to the second part of your question, I suppose it would depend on the size of your league rosters. If we’re looking at a shallower setting, with 20 or fewer players per team, then both guys are borderline. But if we’re looking at closer to 30-person rosters then I think both make sensible holds. It may sound counterintuitive, but I would actually prefer Trey Lance at this juncture. It’s true he hasn’t shown he can be an NFL-caliber starter, but much of this is not his fault given the injuries he suffered and the emergence of Brock Purdy. It was also known that he would be a project coming out of college, and he is hopefully learning from Dak Prescott in a pressure-free environment. If nothing else, given the chance we know he should have an elevated rushing floor.
Kenny Pickett, on the other hand, has shown us consistent mediocrity with little in the way of ceiling. It’s true his book likely isn’t fully written, but it’s telling that the Pittsburgh Steelers were willing to move on from him for such little in return. He’ll probably stick around in the league as a backup, but even if he gets another shot as a starter – would you feel comfortable rolling with him? If the answer to that question is “no,” then you’ve likely identified a roster clogger and can cut bait.
Why Yes, I Did Just Talk About This!
I recently took over an orphan in a 12-team, PPR superflex that needs a little work. I have pick 1.02, three picks apiece in rounds 2 and 3, and 4.02. I have tried moving out of pick 1.02 but am not getting enough value back so far. I have also tried using lower picks to move up a bit or obtain picks in 2025 but no luck so far. At quarterback, I’m not great (Kyler Murray and little else), while I have good young talent at receiver for an okay receiving corps. If I keep pick 1.02 I’m wondering if I should (1) take a quarterback and rely on the deep draft to find some later receiver, or (2) take a receiver (presumably Harrison) and hope I can still grab a quarterback (possibly Michael Penix or Bo Nix) at pick 2.02, or (3) don’t take a quarterback at all this year although I’m in a position to perhaps find a future starter? -David in Georgia
Remember that bit about a superflex league and pick 1.02 from the question above? I told you it seems to come up quite a bit!
Right off the bat, I would rule out option #3. In general, I like to leverage rookie drafts as something of a breeding ground for increasing overall talent. What I mean by that is I try to be somewhat agnostic to position, preferring to select the best player available – while noting everything is easier in theory versus practice, there will always be a chance to trade for players at certain positions at a point later on.
Still, the superflex format skews positional valuation. It is becoming increasingly likely that the first three picks of the draft (and possibly more pending trades from QB-needy teams like the Vikings and Raiders) are going to be signal callers, meaning right off the bat you could be selecting a player with the same NFL draft capital as your pick 1.02. Coupled with your current paucity of talent behind Kyler Murray, option #3 seems counterintuitive.
As you’ve probably gleaned by the above, I’m leaning towards your option #1, but with a twist. But before I provide my Shayamalan-ian thoughts, let’s consider who’s likely to be available at pick 2.02 using our current rookie superflex rankings.
A few notes. JJ McCarthy appears likely to go before pick 2.02, but it’s always possible he could fall. Running backs begin to enter the equation in this zone, while receiver begins to fall off a bit. The aforementioned Bo Nix and Michael Penix populate the middle of the second round, though the real life draft capital could change that.
Back to your options #1 and #2. In short, my thoughts are “Why limit yourself to the positional reversal?” I’m not sure where your other seconds are, but if they are later on in the round then I wouldn’t commit to limiting yourself to a receiver at 2.02 just because you selected a signal caller at pick 1.02. With Murray as your only surefire starter in hand, you may need multiple bites at the apple here, and as such there’s a strong argument to be made to go QB-QB with your first two selections. Current smoke signals are asserting an increasing likelihood that Penix becomes a first round pick after nailing his Pro Day, and if that’s the case I would have a hard time turning him down if he’s available in the second round of your draft. While I’m slightly lower on Nix, here again, we need to see what the NFL thinks about him.
But ultimately it’s a good problem to have. If you’re not sold on Penix or Nix, you should still be able to get a solid receiver at pick 1.02. But it’s my belief that nothing changes a team’s fortunes more quickly in a superflex league than the receipt of talented young throwers, and you have the potential to double down on that.
From Twitter…
Miller Time
Missed this weeks deadline but I'd be interested in your thoughts on Kendre Miller in the next mailbag. I anticipated more buzz about him this offseason.
— Eternal vessel of Grace (@Dallonntm) April 9, 2024
It’s hard to know what to make of Kendre Miller at this point, given his paltry rookie year usage. To that point, and noting it was partially due to injury, the former TCU Horned Frog was only able to manage 41 carries for 156 yards and a score (3.8 YPC), though he showed efficiency in the passing game with 11.7 YPR across 10 catches. 25 of these carries occurred in two contests, yielding diametrically opposing results – in an early season clash against the Patriots, he was only able to turn 12 carries into 37 yards (3.1 YPC), while at the end of the year, he gouged the Falcons for 73 yards and a touchdown on 13 totes. It’s true that New England fielded a tough defense, but on the other side of the coin Atlanta had nothing left to play for in January, under a coach who was strongly likely to be fired (and since has been).
Not surprisingly, dynasty owners have been less than kind. Miller’s ADP has fallen nearly 50 spots since last July’s height, and he’s now going off the board as the RB41. It’s extremely likely his best days are ahead of him, but I can appreciate the appropriate punishment of a player who couldn’t beat out the husks of Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams for volume.
Still recovering from injury, Miller wasn’t able to perform most testing metrics at last year’s NFL Combine. But his college numbers show both efficiency and an ability to function as a bell cow, even if the receiving numbers are a bit lower than we’d prefer for future projections.
Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference
Around this time last year, Miller was often being selected in the late first round of 1QB rookie drafts. Now he’s considered more as a throw-in to larger deals, or being worth significantly less draft pick capital.
With the exception of trade #4 above, which probably contains some very IDP-specific nuance, DLF’s Trade Finder shows the height of disrespect for the second year player. Given this, I’d probably be finding myself as a buyer. Kamara and Williams are still around, but are both clearly running on fumes. And while the Saints’ “run it back like 2023” approach does give me pause, I do believe Miller will eventually get his shot if he’s able to maintain his health.
Much like I noted with Lance in the first question above, Miller hasn’t yet proven himself to be bad – his rookie season was an unmitigated disaster, but I’m not writing him off just because he didn’t get to touch the ball enough. While owners probably hoped for more, it was known that the situation wasn’t going to be conducive to early success given the positional roadblocks ahead of him, so I’m not going to double-punish here. If this is what the dip is looking like, I’m probably trying to buy him for a mid-round pick close to or during my league’s rookie draft.
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