2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.12
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft, and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks or if they will use them at all.
In this 12-part series, our team will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Superflex Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, we’ll suggest the player you could soon be adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, we’ll include options based on the updated 1QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we’ll examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
Rookie Selection 1.12
The Pick: Michael Penix, QB
Penix experienced a lot of ups and downs during his time at the college level. He resurrected Indiana’s football program from the dead for one season, tore his ACL twice, and then led Washington to the national championship game. In 2022, he finished the season second in the country with 4,641 passing yards and followed that up with an even more impressive 2023 where he led the country with 4,903 passing yards. Over that same stretch, he threw 67 touchdowns to only 19 interceptions.
There are obvious question marks surrounding Penix’s transition from college to the NFL. The first question was seemingly answered at the NFL combine when reports came back that his medical evaluations satisfied teams and there were no lingering issues. Not only did he have two knee injuries at Indiana, but he also battled through a shoulder injury during his time at Washington. The second question mark is his age; Penix turns 24 in May which is incredibly old for a QB prospect and may turn off a few NFL teams who are in the market for a quarterback of the future.
This 1.12 ranking for Penix to me is splitting the difference on his potential NFL draft outcomes. If he ends up getting drafted in the middle of the first round to a team like Las Vegas, Denver, or Minnesota, then I think Penix ends up getting drafted closer to the 1.10 in superflex rookie drafts. However, if he falls into the second day of the NFL draft (which I think is much more likely) I think he will also fall into the middle of the second round of superflex rookie drafts.
Trade Value:
- 1.12 for Josh Jacobs/4.01
- 1.12/2.12 for Nico Collins
Possible Pivots:
1QB League Options:
Rookie Selection 2.12
The Pick: MarShawn Lloyd, RB
I absolutely love the end of the second round in superflex rookie drafts this year because more often than not a really good player falls right into your lap. There is a large group of RBs and WRs who are all in a similar tier in this range and it causes excellent value to fall down the board into this spot. If you don’t have a late second in your upcoming rookie drafts, I’d recommend watching how the board is playing out and being ready to make a trade for a pick like the 2.12 if a player you like is getting overlooked. These draft picks are easy to acquire and shouldn’t cost you more than an aging veteran.
The reason I like this range is that running backs like Lloyd can fall right into your lap! The narrative that’s formed all off-season that these running backs suck has infected people’s brains and caused them to forget about the position entirely. More likely than not, the first RB selected in your superflex rookie drafts won’t be until the second round. Because of that interaction, Lloyd, my RB3, is now widely available at the end of the second round.
Lloyd has all the makings of a three-down NFL back. He’s got the size at 220 pounds and ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at the combine. He has quick feet between the tackles, pretty good vision, and he’s explosive in the open field. The other exciting element of Lloyd’s game is his usage in the passing game. During his career, he had 34 catches for 452 yards and eclipsed 1.20 yards per route run in each of his last two seasons.
Trade Value:
- 2.12 for Aaron Jones
- 2.12/2025 3rd for Russell Wilson
Possible Pivots:
1QB League Options:
Rookie Selection 3.12
The Pick: Devontez Walker, WR
What a fall from grace for Walker, who was routinely mock-drafted at the end of the first round of both NFL drafts and superflex rookie drafts. However, a disappointing few months saw him struggle at both the senior bowl and the combine and his draft stock slipped through his fingers like most passes to him at each event.
Walker was fantastic at Kent State in 2022 and transferred to North Carolina for the 2023 season. Obviously, he was delayed getting onto the field for the Tar Heels, but after he returned he picked up where he left off for the Golden Flashes. His game is predicated on size, speed, and winning down the field. He ran a 4.36 forty at the NFL combine and that speed shows up on film as he routinely beats defenders down the field.
The big problems for Walker are his continuous drops and his limited route tree. His drops were an issue in college and then he showed up to the senior bowl and NFL combine and the drops persisted which was a concern. Further, the appeal of Walker is his untapped athleticism and potential which would allow an NFL team to overlook his limited route running. However, Walker turns 23 years old this summer and it’s harder to see a path to growth with his route tree so far behind some of his peers.
I was all in on Walker a few months ago, but there are a ton of red flags surrounding his game. I’d much rather pivot to a player like Jalen McMillan if he’s available for me to draft at the 3.12.
Trade Value:
- 3.12 for DJ Chark
- 3.12/4.12 for Darren Waller
Possible Pivots:
- Jalen McMillan
- Ray Davis
- Luke McCaffrey
1QB League Options:
- 2025 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Dylan Sampson, RB Tennessee - January 13, 2025
- 2025 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Quinshon Judkins, RB Ohio State - January 8, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - October 3, 2024
