Four Quarterbacks to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
Welcome to the ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ series where each week I’ll be focusing on one position to analyze four players and what we should be doing with them. This week I’ll be taking a look at four quarterbacks with varying degrees of dynasty value.
Gardner Minshew, QB LV – Hold
Minshew burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2019, surprising everyone with quality play and good fantasy performances, averaging 16.4 and 17.7 points per game in his two years with the Jaguars. Viewed as a high-end backup, Minshew spent the next two seasons behind Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia before signing with the Colts for the 2023 season. With Anthony Richardson missing the majority of the 2023 season, Minshew got his second extended run as a starting quarterback averaging 13.8 PPG in the 13 games he started. Now after signing a better-than-expected contract with the Raiders, he has a chance to be a starting quarterback again.
The Move – The chances that the Raiders enter the season with just Minshew and Aidan O’Connell at quarterback are growing bigger by the day. Their seemingly only option to change things at this time is the NFL Draft where they would need to trade up if they want one of the top quarterbacks and they’re unlikely to do so since the Vikings have the inside track. It’s possible they could take Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr in the second round but they’d be no guarantee to win the job. Despite the chance he could be the Raiders’ opening-day starter, Minshew’s value has remained low as everyone is skeptical. If you have Minshew, just stay put in case he actually does start games for the Raiders at which point you can revisit.
Will Levis, QB TEN – Buy
Levis got his chance for the Titans in week eight of the 2023 season and what a first game it was as he threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions. But, after that game, he struggled game in and game out other than a comeback win against the Dolphins. When it was all said and done, Levis averaged just 11.3 PPG for the season. This off-season, the Titans have dedicated themselves to adding around Levis to give him as best of a chance as possible to become a franchise quarterback. Can he make a sophomore jump and become a worthwhile fantasy quarterback?
The Move – I can’t believe I’m saying this because I was not a fan of Levis as a prospect but I think he’s a worthwhile investment right now at cost. We know the potential ceiling he has actually exists because we’ve seen it. Currently he’s priced like it’s a low probability he realizes that potential considering who he was as a prospect and that’s appropriate. Still, a bet on Levis can make a huge difference for your team because even if it doesn’t work out the price wasn’t meaningful, and if he does it’s a massive value jump for your team. In one quarterback leagues, I’m fine with sending a mid-third-round rookie pick. In superflex leagues the ideal price is a mid-second-round rookie pick but I’d be willing to go up to an early one.
Jared Goff, QB DET – Sell
In his third season with the Lions, 2023 was more of the same from Goff as he finished the year with 17.0 PPG. Since turning things around in his sophomore year, he has been a steady QB2 for dynasty. But, it’s important to note that he has a pretty small range of outcomes as we know his ceiling isn’t that high. Goff has played well for the Lions, made a home with them, and rumors of a contract extension seem like they’ll come true meaning he has plenty of job security. The question with a quarterback like Goff will always be how much dynasty value do you apply to his job security?
The Move – Having Goff on your team certainly helps you feel good because he’s reliable but he rarely makes a big difference in the outcome of your season. I’d happily tier up or down. When going up I want to find out how much I need to add to Goff to trade for Justin Herbert. Adding a first-round rookie pick in superflex leagues is an appropriate but acceptable price. When tiering down, my target is Kirk Cousins who is a real upgrade for fantasy production and likely still has a couple years left of that production. Getting a second-round rookie pick or equivalent player value added on would be a big win.
Justin Herbert, QB LAC – League Dependent
2023 was another down year for Herbert’s standards. He averaged 17.9 PPG as he and his weapons dealt with injuries. This off-season, things have changed drastically for Herbert as Jim Harbaugh is in as head coach, bringing along Greg Roman to run the offense, Austin Ekeler’s contract ended and he wasn’t re-signed, Keenan Allen was traded, and Mike Williams was released. This will be a whole new team in 2024 and many are worried, rightfully so, about what Herbert’s fantasy output can even be in this new offense and team.
The Move –Feelings on Justin Herbert are so all over the place that this is going to completely depend on your league. His situation certainly doesn’t look good right now but there’s no denying that Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league and has a history of elite production. If one of your league mates has him and will accept QB10 or less prices, I’m doing that in every format. If you already have Herbert, it’s best to just hold and hope that he can overcome the situation or that it’s not as bad as it seems.
Another week is another opportunity to take advantage of the dynasty market. Good luck in all your future trading.
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