Dynasty Decision: Mark Andrews
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Mark Andrews, TE BAL
Along with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews has been the flag bearer for the elite tight ends. He posted a phenomenal stretch from 2019 to 2022. However, an injury-plagued 2023 season and Zay Flowers popping up during last season could reduce the volume he sees. Therefore, would now be an excellent time to look to get out of the 28-year-old as an asset before his price further reduces?
Previous Performance
Despite being the second tight end selected by the Ravens in the 2018 NFL Draft, Andrews immediately outproduced first-round rookie Hayden Hurst. He also showed instant chemistry with Lamar Jackson once he took over as the starting quarterback. During his sophomore campaign, Andrews produced like an elite tight end despite only playing 42% of offensive snaps. He was second in the league with a yards-per-route run number of 2.68 and produced 13.8 fantasy points per game.
This high efficiency in a reduced role continued in 2020, where he was the TE6 despite only playing in 14 games and again finishing in the top six in yards per route run, and he saw his playing time increase to 60% of offensive snaps. The 2021 season was his big breakout season as he continued his efficiency while also playing 76% of offensive snaps, which led to averaging 17.7 points per game and the overall TE1 finish.
Across the last two seasons, Andrews has been fantastic in fantasy while on the field. However, he has missed time in back-to-back seasons and has not put up the overall fantasy seasons off the back of that remarkable 2021 season.
Situation and Usage
When you look at a situation for a fantasy tight end, the hope is that they can be the lead target on the offense. Andrews led the Ravens in targets per game in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. 2023 was the first year since his sophomore season that another player had been the lead target within the offense. Flowers overtook Andrews in target share, partly because Andrews was injured and off the field.
When Healthy, the Ravens’ offense will still run through Andrews, and he will likely see well north of 100 targets if he is healthy for the entire season. In 2023, the expectation was that the Ravens would become moss pass-heavy, with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling plays. This happened, with the Ravens increasing from 28.7 pass attempts per game up to 29.1; however, that is not the volume of increase many expected. That was largely down to how often the Ravens played with a lead. If you look at their neutral pass rate, they increased from -6% drop back over expected in 2022 to 1% in 2023. That may not sound a lot, but that’s a reasonably drastic switch in philosophy. This should only be positive for Andrews heading into the 2024 season, as even if he drops down to the number two target in the offense behind Zay Flowers, he has the potential to see similar raw target numbers.
Contract
Andrews signed a four-year, $56m extension in September 2021, and he has more than outplayed that as he is currently the sixth-highest tight end in average per year at $14m. He has now progressed to the point where most of his guarantees have expired, and the Ravens could save cap space if they decide to move on from him. That is unlikely, given how he has continued to play and his value versus other elite tight ends. The 2025 season will be the final of Andrews’s contract, and despite his $16.9m cap hit, only $5.9m would count as dead cap if the Ravens did decide to move on from him. Given the Ravens’ current championship window, I consider that highly unlikely unless Andrews’ play suddenly falls off a cliff this year.
That leaves two scenarios: one, he plays out the final two years of his contract and then hits the open market, or two, the Ravens look to work an extension to reduce his cap hit in the short term while rewarding him and giving him future guaranteed money. I believe the latter is the more likely scenario and means I am not overly concerned about Andrews finding himself looking for a different home for at least the next two to three seasons.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the TE3 in February ADP and the 56th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 2024 1.07 in a superflex league. Recent trades are below and are pretty aligned with the value in the trade analyzer:
Conclusion
I am a dynasty player who struggles to pay up for tight ends unless they are genuinely giving me a positional advantage. I think that far too often, a player who finishes as TE3 or TE5 gets lauded as a star, but realistically, they only gave you one or two points per game above a replacement-level player. Very few players give you a consistent week-to-week positional advantage, and healthy Mark Andrews is one of those few players.
His current mid-to-late first-round pick price feels very achievable. Although he is now 28, if you’re looking to compete and win now, not many players have the upside that he does. If I were a competitive team, I would even consider pivoting from Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, or Dalton Kincaid and adding an asset in the process.
I would probably look to move on from Andrews as a rebuilding team. However, you may see a more significant return if you wait until August or September, when people will be less age-obsessed in how they approach building their rosters.
There is an injury risk with Andrews, given he missed time in four of the past five seasons. However, that comes with the territory for tight ends, and none of the injuries should linger long-term.
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