Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Time to Trade for Zamir White?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
“The line it is drawn,
The curse it is cast,
The slow one now,
Will later be fast,
As the present now,
Will later be past,
The order is rapidly fadin’.
And the first one now,
Will later be last,
For the times they are a-changin’.”
-Bob Dylan (The Times They Are A-Changin’)
Not shockingly, the opening to free agency was fast and furious, with big-time (or at least, big-name) players including but not limited to Kirk Cousins, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Calvin Ridley, and Austin Ekeler all moving on down the road. This was supplemented by trade activity resulting in new homes for Keenan Allen, Joe Mixon, Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell. Bob Dylan rarely misses, and his lyrics ring true here – it will be interesting to follow these new plot lines as we march closer to NFL gameplay.
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Jonesing for a Running Back
In a PPR league and for a contending roster, would you prefer Alvin Kamara or Aaron Jones?
Per the current DLF ADP, those partaking in the February mock drafts didn’t see much of a difference between the two elder statesman ball carriers.
With that said, as evidenced by the ADP Comparison between the two over the past year, they arrived here in very different ways.
As recently as November 2023, Kamara was still being selected in the fourth round of startup mock drafts. From there, however, it’s been nothing but ADP misery as he’s lost value in each successive month since. Jones meanwhile, likely due to injury, saw his value nearly cut in half between a September peak and December nadir, only to subsequently rebound in 2024. With the players having nearly equivalent ADPs it’s hard to argue with any real subtlety, but insomuch as momentum exists it appears to be with Jones.
Truthfully it’s not terribly surprising. Jones’ biggest issue lately hasn’t been his play, but rather his ability to stay on the field. To that point, he missed six full games and parts of others in 2023, though notably this followed a fully healthy season in 2023. At 29 years of age, it would be hard to assert he’ll have better luck with the soft tissue injuries that plagued him last year, though I’m less worried about the sprained MCL. And while he still averaged a crisp 4.6 YPC and 7.8 YPR, we need him to do it for the bulk of the fantasy season.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Still, the fact is Jones still appears to “have it.” And despite Kamara being a year younger, he’s been a highly inefficient player for three years running.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
While there is no such thing as a perfect statistic, even if just comparing Kamara’s numbers from 2021 onward to his early career numbers, it’s evident he’s fallen off as a runner. Never a high-volume guy on the ground, the veteran Saint got by on efficiency and touchdown scoring. If he’s averaging under 4.0 YPC and only scoring 2-5 times, his passing numbers are going to have to bridge the gap.
Here too though, his efficiency has dropped. Our friends at Rotoworld use the phrase “PPR scam,” but that’s exactly how Kamara got away with it last season. He corralled a robust 87.2% of his targets, but only for a paltry 6.2 YPR. With New Orleans seemingly running it back the same way in 2024, my fear is we might have a “if it’s broke, don’t fix it” scenario.
Pivoting back to Jones, he now has a fresh opportunity in Minnesota. And if Kirk Cousins was walking back through that door, this would be a slam dunk in my mind – unfortunately the Vikings are currently set to be helmed by Sam Darnold unless they can continue maneuvering in the NFL Draft. Rational (or perhaps, cynical) minds may differ as to just how much Darnold is than Derek Carr at this point, but the fact remains Minnesota has a hole under center.
Ultimately though I’m choking the situation down with a strong, probably alcoholic beverage, and leaning toward Jones. He’s been the better player in recent years, which is one more box-checked than with Kamara. The quarterback position on the Vikings offense is unsettled, but they at least have a solid, offensive-minded head coach in Kevin O’Connell, which is in stark contrast to Saints head man Dennis Allen. So while it’s not a slam dunk decision, I’d choose to roll with the former Packer.
The White Stuff
On a team with a need at running back, would you trade pick 2.01 for Zamir White (12-team, 1QB, PPR league)?
In the introduction to this article I rattled off a few players who now find themselves with new uniforms for 2024. One name I left off is former Raider and now Green Bay ball carrier Josh Jacobs. Say what you will about Jacobs, who followed up a mammoth 2022 breakout with a 2023 dud, but he was the clear alpha running back in Vegas. As such, his departure leaves a sizeable void.
Enter White.
The now third-year player acquitted himself fairly well in 2023 game action, rushing for 451 at 4.3 YPC. This was in stark contrast to a rookie campaign that saw him mothballed to the tune of a mere 17 total carries. To that point, he equaled or surpassed that total in each of the season’s final four contests, which included 100-yard efforts against both the Chiefs and Broncos. And while his 15 receptions didn’t exactly move the needle, it’s again notable that nine of these were again accrued in the final quartet of games when Jacobs was out.
Is this a sign of things to come? Is there a star turn in White’s future?
If you believe in the collegiate recruitment hype, White was a four- or five-star player who was largely regarded as the best running back prospect in the class of 2018. Unfortunately his numbers at Georgia left a bit to be desired, as he was forced to share the load with future NFL players including D’Andre Swift, James Cook and Kenny McIntosh. And though he led the way in both 2020 and 2021, he was less efficient than his counterparts, ultimately yielding a career that likely left Bulldog fans wanting more.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Ultimately, and despite a solid showing at the NFL Combine, this left White as a fourth-round pick in 2022. Given the current devaluation of running backs in the NFL this isn’t something to scoff at, but it was still a Day Three pick. With Jacobs as the incumbent, it was hard to make much of an argument for the situation, either.
Continuing, the 2024 NFL Draft might not be the best place for picking a running back, as it’s easily the weakest skill position. It seems highly likely we won’t see a running back selected on Day One, and perhaps not more than a handful on Day Two. So if you maintain the pick, a wide receiver selection seems likelier.
Given this, I can see the argument in trading for White. He has thus far survived free agency unscathed, with only Ameer Abdullah behind him. But the fact remains he’s a former later-round pick who played pretty well, but didn’t really establish himself through two years in the league. These are the types of players who we find it easy to hype up in our minds, but who the NFL quite simply chews up and spits out. Another Day Three selection could easily come in and turn the job into a timeshare, and an earlier round pick could push White into a 1b role at best. This is an instance where I think discretion is the better part of valor, and you should be aiming higher with the pick.
DLF’s Trade Analyzer agrees, asserting over a twofold difference in value between the two assets.
If you’re looking for more value, I’d instead seek to level up to a guy like Rhamondre Stevenson, who should still function as the 1a ball carrier in a new-look New England offense.
To be clear, White could absolutely be given the reigns and break out. In such a scenario I’m sure it would sting, but sometimes we have to take those “process over results” types of losses. But if you’re more bullish on White than I am, you should at least seek to get another piece thrown back your way.
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