Austin Ekeler signs with Washington: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
When you look at the running backs taken in the 2017 NFL Draft, you’ll see a laundry list that includes the likes of Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Aaron Jones and Chris Carson. It’s a “who’s who” in dynasty fantasy football history. One player you won’t see on the list is Austin Ekeler. He signed a three-year, $1.66 million contract that included a $5,000 signing bonus with the Los Angeles Chargers as an undrafted free agent directly after the 2017 NFL Draft. Luckily for the Chargers, he’ll go down in history as one of the greatest UDFAs to have ever played. After an amazing run of production, Ekeler bet on himself this season, failed to produce, then wasn’t re-signed in Los Angeles and ended up landing a modest (in comparison) deal with the Washington Commanders. Let’s take a look at the updated values of some players impacted by the move.
Austin Ekeler, RB WAS
As we stated, Ekeler wasn’t even on the radar of the NFL when the 2017 NFL Draft occurred. In fact, there were 26 running backs taken in that draft and none of them were named “Austin Ekeler.” After a bit of a slow start to his career, he turned into an absolute fantasy football superstar in 2019, rushing for 557 yards and three touchdowns but also catching a whopping 92 passes for 993 yards and eight more scores. Over his seven years and 103 games played, Ekeler has recorded 4,355 rushing yards, 440 catches, 3,884 yards and 69 total touchdowns. For a long stretch, he was a “set it and forget it” RB1 who carried dynasty teams in stretches.
Ekeler leaves Los Angeles and gets a two-year deal worth up to $11 million with Washington. With some of the other money being thrown around to running backs, this seems like a bargain for the Commanders and has to be a massive disappointment for Ekeler, who played out his deal in the hopes of landing a monster long-term contract. After posting 25 rushing touchdowns in the previous two years, Ekeler struggled this season and recorded only five touchdowns on the year. To make matters worse, his reception total went from a career best 107 in 2022 to just 51 last season.
In Washington, he’ll replace Antonio Gibson for the Commanders (he signed in New England) but it clearly seems the days of him being an RB1 in dynasty leagues are all but over. You have to expect Brian Robinson to continue to be involved in early down work and Ekeler is likely going to be the passing down back for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. In short, expect his rushing yards to decrease while he posts some solid receiving statistics. Regardless, Ekeler looks like a part-time player and while he could carve out some good games, he looks much more like a FLEX option than a RB1 moving forward. His ADP will likely stop the absolute free fall it’s been in but it’s likely not coming back up, either.
Brian Robinson, RB WAS
Drafted in the third round in 2022, Robinson has maintained “sleeper” status over the past two seasons but never really delivered that much. Over his 27 games played, he’s posted 1,530 rushing yards with seven touchdowns. While his yards per carry has held steady at around four, his carry total actually went down last year from 205 in his rookie season to just 178 last year. He did catch 36 passes and score on four receiving touchdowns last season to make up the difference. The problem here is Ekeler is still a superior pass catcher, despite being on the downward swing of his prime. If Robinson doesn’t get those catches he had last season, his value just isn’t going to be what it could be. We’ll see what happens moving forward in the NFL Draft but this backfield looks like a 1-2 punch now and while Robinson should have some solid games, there also could be a lot of contests where he posts 50-60 rushing yards with only a handful of catches (or even none at all) – that’s going to be a mess for dynasty owners to try to navigate or predict. Expect his ADP to continue trending down.
Chris Rodriguez, RB WAS
Speaking of sleepers, Rodriguez was one of my personal favorite ones last season. He played well in limited action, rushing for 247 yards and two touchdowns on just 51 carries (4.8 yards per carry). He also caught just two passes in 12 games. With Robinson and Ekeler handling most of the work, it’s hard to see a role for Rodriguez as an early down thumper. He’s still on my short list of candidates for a back-end roster spot but the addition of Ekeler (no less more competition in the upcoming NFL Draft) isn’t great for his value.
Gus Edwards, RB LAC
The Chargers have a massive void to fill and will look a lot different under Jim Harbaugh, regardless. After losing Ekeler, cutting Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen, this roster is almost unrecognizable. The Gus Bus will now head to Southern California and from one Harbaugh to another. Edwards will certainly be paired with more talent at the position but should be a solid short yardage and change of pace back at the very least. While not really made to be a long-term starter, Edwards should provide stability and be a decent source of yards. While his 13 touchdowns from last season can’t be relied on, Edwards has always found a way to provide fantasy value. He comes in as our RB52 and that should move up a touch with this signing – just don’t overpay for Edwards, Isaiah Spiller on anyone else on the Chargers roster at the moment. This roster is far from done being built.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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