Dynasty Perspective Through Advanced Metrics: Tight Ends
Fantasy football is a game decided by numbers. In this four-part series, I’ll be reviewing advanced player metrics via Player Profiler from the 2023 season, to understand the numbers behind the data, outline a contextual story and provide actionable advice in dynasty.
The fourth and final article in the series will focus on tight ends, analyzing metrics to give a true reflection of performance and expectations moving forward. The previous article on wide receivers can be found here.
Mark Andrews, TE BAL
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE5
- Target Rate: TE9
- Red Zone Targets: TE6
- Total Touchdowns: TE2
- Yards Per Route Run: TE3
- Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: TE2
- Dominator Rating: TE1
- Fantasy Points Per Route: TE1
Andrews had a strong season metrics-wise despite only playing in ten regular season games and a sputtering finish in the NFL playoffs. He was the TE5 in fantasy points per game, however this is even stronger discounting the game he injured his ankle – which would have put him as the TE3, tied with Travis Kelce and TJ Hockenson at 14.6 fantasy points per game. His target rate was lower than expected, however this is a minor blip, as he was excellent across other key metrics. Andrews was a beast, finishing TE2 in touchdowns despite his shortened season. Also, he was excellent in yards per route and team pass attempt, plus truly productive as the TE1 in dominator rating and fantasy points per route.
Positive passing volume is incoming for a Ravens team that was leading at the highest rate in 2023. Year upon year, this will fluctuate, growing the passing volume. The emergence of wide receiver Zay Flowers is favorable for Andrews, as he will receive less defensive attention on a snap-by-snap basis. Throughout his career, Andrews has been super consistent, with an outstanding floor and range of outcomes to be the TE1 overall in any given season. For that reason, combined with his continued strong metrics, Andrews deserves to be in the top tier of any conversation in the tight end landscape.
Andrews has been extremely consistent in fantasy points per game over the last five years, with an excellent floor and TE1 ceiling (Credit: FFToday)
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE17
- Target Rate: TE20
- Slot Snaps: TE3
- Air Yards: TE1
- Target Depth (ADOT): TE1
- Red Zone Targets: TE34
- Catchable Target Rate: TE37
- Contested Catch Rate: TE7
The most hyped tight end prospect of the 21st century, Pitts has disappointed in fantasy over his short career. In 2023, he failed to live up to expectations, finishing as the TE17 in fantasy points per game and TE20 in target rate – struggling to command targets and accumulate the points to win your weekly matchups. Pitts is a physical specimen, so to only register as the TE34 in red zone targets is another head-scratcher – partly attributed to outgoing head coach Arthur Smith.
In his metrics profile there is room for optimism though, as the leader in air yards and target depth – showcasing an explosive nature on the field. Pitts was also the TE3 in slot snaps – keeping him away from the battle within the trenches and a solid TE7 finish in contested catch rate. Add in the impending upgrade at quarterback – to improve on an output of TE37 in catchable target rate in 2023 – there is room for growth in Pitts’ overall outlook.
Pitts has been slowly sliding in market value for the last 18 months, and he is currently resting in the lower mid TE1 range. At this price to acquire, I think it’s an interesting proposition – with the new situation in Atlanta bringing hope. However the likelihood Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London all hit their trajectory is slim. If you’re looking at a sideways move towards Pitts, I like the trade off with Dalton Kincaid. The move for Pitts is league economy dependent as his market will remain strong in certain pockets with the reluctance to give up on years of hope and a new spark in Atlanta.
David Njoku, TE CLE
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE7
- Target Share: TE3
- Target Depth (ADOT): TE35
- Red Zone Targets: TE3
- Catchable Targets: TE33
- Yards After Catch: TE1
- Dominator Rating: TE5
- Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: TE4
There was a lot to like in Njoku’s 2023 metrics profile, as he finished as the TE7 overall in fantasy points per game, with the positive view he was the TE4 in expected fantasy points per game if given an average environment. Njoku was a clear favorite of backup quarterback Joe Flacco, finishing as the TE3 in target share and red zone targets, receiving volume in the key areas of the field. When Njoku had the ball, he was electric as the best in the league in yards after catch and the TE5 in dominator rating. Within his profile, there is room for growth, with a lowly TE35 result in target depth and TE33 in catchable targets – both of these metrics will improve with better quarterback play.
One of the best feelings in dynasty is when you buy a player at floor value and he ascends over the years – this was me with Njoku in 2021, hence the affinity and potentially rose-tinted glasses. The outlook moving forward is tied to your view of the switch back to Deshaun Watson, as Njoku delivered his best fantasy season under Flacco in 2023. Viewed in the lower TE1 range, Njoku is a cheaper alternative who can deliver a top-three season. He is on a trajectory towards peak dynasty value, which could make for an appealing pivot away but at only 27 years old I’m very much interested as he gives the flexibility to pivot up to a true elite option or usage as a solid starter on a fade tight end strategy.
Njoku is approaching peak age, but also peak value in dynasty, after multiple years of improving ADP (Credit: DLF ADP Over Time App)
Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT
- Fantasy Points Per Game: TE29
- Target Rate: TE26
- Air Yards Share: TE17
- Target Depth (ADOT): TE20
- Catchable Target Rate: TE31
- Yards Per Route Run: TE31
- Target Separation: TE34
- Dominator Rating: TE15
What difference a year makes, where Freiermuth has dropped from a mid-level TE1 to a higher-mid-level TE2 in market value here at DLF. It was a disappointing 2023 season for Freiermuth, partly due to injury and continued poor offensive scheme, however to finish as low as TE29 in fantasy points per game speaks volumes about the performance overall. Freiermuth was unable to create separation, make plays down the field, or command a strong volume in a struggling offense in Pittsburgh. In terms of positives, the TE31 metric for catchable target rate will improve with the right quarterback upgrade, and TE15 in dominator rating showed Freiermuth generated a good portion of the overall fantasy production within the offense.
The addition of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator will scare many dynasty players, after the lack of fantasy production from his time in Atlanta. While the upgrade at quarterback is almost certain, 2023 was a poor year for Freiermuth and it’s hard to see him rising back up to the market level he was a year ago, especially with the influx of young talent overall within the tight end landscape. He’s in a range where I’m not interested, preferring to fade my TE2 when rostering an elite option or multiple low-end TE1s with upside as an alternative. Freiermuth is a player I could have interest in buying back into in 12 months, when he is a potential free agent and likely valued even lower at the dynasty marketplace.
He is a keen supporter of mental health projects, where dynasty content is his coping strategy to remain in an optimal mindset.
- Dynasty Perspective Through Fantasy Points Per Game: Quarterbacks - January 16, 2025
- Dynasty Mind: Future Trends - January 1, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - December 20, 2024
