Dynasty Decision: Rhamondre Stevenson
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold with owners expecting that decline, only for them to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE
Stevenson has had an up-and-down three-year career after being a fourth-round pick of the Patriots in the 2021 NFL Draft. There is now a new regime in town, and heading into the final year of his rookie contract, it is a make-or-break year for his career. Does this mean we should be looking to buy or sell? I will dive in and find out.
Previous Performance
As a rookie, Stevenson was not often used. This is usually the way for rookie running backs in New England under Bill Belichick. He has notoriously eased in running backs gently, then unleashed them in their sophomore seasons. That was precisely the way with Stevenson. During his second season, he commanded a large workload with 210 carries and an impressive 88 targets. This volume carried him to an impressive RB9 overall finish, which, when you consider he was splitting the backfield with Damien Harris, is a truly impressive season.
The hope was that with a new offensive coordinator in place, Stevenson could build off an impressive sophomore campaign and reproduce the fantasy output. However, the 2023 season was a right-off for the entire franchise. The Patriot’s offense struggled; Stevenson missed multiple games due to a couple of injuries and finished the season as the RB27 in points per game or the RB35 overall. It’s not exactly what most people were hoping for.
Situation and Usage
The great thing about Stevenson is that he combines a bigger-bodied profile with excellent pass-catching ability. He is the rare back who can be used in short-yardage situations while also being a volume receiver in the passing game. The Patriots have a new offensive coordinator in Alex Van Pelt who has spent the previous three seasons with the Cleveland Browns. He has helped build one of the best running games in the league and a high-volume screen team. Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford saw 26 targets in the screen game alone last season. This should hopefully be great news for Stevenson, who could benefit significantly from that usage.
The biggest question around the situation will be whether the Patriots use their resources to bring in another running back to compete or split work with Stevenson. At the same time, I expect them to add somebody to a backfield that only boasts 2022 sixth-round rookie Kevin Harris and journeyman backs like JaMycal Hasty and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I would be shocked if, given the volume of needs across the entire roster, they decide to devote premium assets to the running back room. This means that Stevenson should be in line to see the lion’s share of the workload in 2024.
Contract
As mentioned, Stevenson will be playing the 2024 season on the final year of his contract. Given the state of the running back free agency market, it is improbable that the Patriots look to extend him before his contract expires at the end of the season. After that, your guess is as good as mine regarding where he could end up in 2025 or what contract he will sign. A lot will depend on how he plays in 2024 but with the market in such a position of upheaval, there is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding Stevenson beyond this year.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB22 in January ADP and the 80th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth an early second-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Rhamondre Stevenson is one of those players I seem to be much higher than consensus on. He had a forgettable season last year, but the combination of rushing and receiving is rarely matched. If we were talking in a vacuum, I would be concerned about Stevenson’s potential to find himself in a new and different situation next season. However, at the current cost, he feels significantly undervalued. The running back market is a bit of a mess outside the top five players. This year’s rookie class lacks true bona fide stars. So, acquiring a player who has finished as an RB1 in the last two seasons for a single second-round pick feels like a bargain.
The uncertainty around the 2025 season could ensure Stevensons’ price remains low through this off-season. However, if the Patriots do bring in a rookie quarterback, it could be they look to lean on the running game and the short passing game to help create a stable platform for the rookie to get his feet wet. This is only going to be a good thing for Stevenson’s production.
I would be happy to proactively acquire him, no matter the situation of my roster. As a competing team, he has the potential to contribute immediately. If you’re rebuilding, he will likely accrue value through the early part of the season so that you can flip him for profit. If you could make a player-for-player trade from some of the younger hyped players to Stevenson, you could also add an asset on top. Jaylen Warren, Zach Charbonnet, and Tyjae Spears are all ranked ahead in ADP but don’t have the historical production of Stevenson and are likely to see more competition for touches.
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