2024 Off-Season Mock Draft Series: Early First Round Results
Now it’s getting good. Over the last two years, this series has started a little slow because it has to be by design. There is very little ADP data out there, and mocks are few and far between as people are still involved in the NFL playoffs and playoff fantasy leagues. However, once the Super Bowl is behind us, the dynasty community starts picking up steam as the Scouting Combine is at the end of the month, the NFL Draft will be over in approximately two months, and training camps begin in five months. Life comes at you fast.
We are finally getting into early rookie mocks, and this is always the most fun part of playing in dynasty leagues. Since the rookie mocks are just starting up, and people love the big names at the top of the class, I wanted to kick this off with the first round of a few rookie mocks I’ve been participating in. This will give you a taste of where the top players are going in this early part of the process and see if anyone is unexpectedly sneaking into the back end of the first round or falling out entirely.
Superflex Rookie Mock
I’m still a 1QB guy, but times are a changin’ and most people are superflex folks now. As a result, that seemed to be the best place to start. Unsurprisingly, it began with Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Drake Maye. Barring an epic explosion, or implosion, at the combine or pro days, I don’t see this top three changing at all. There is a world where Harrison Jr goes 1.01 in some leagues, and maybe Maye goes before Williams on occasion, or Jayden Daniels sneaks in ahead of Maye, but this will surely be the same top three 95% of the time going forward.
Not a shocker, but Daniels at 1.04 is probably going to be the norm if the Heisman Trophy winner goes as early as it is being rumored. Malik Nabers, as the second non-QB, seems locked in at this point as well, and deservedly so. But at pick 1.06, things start to get interesting. JJ McCarthy went to my high school, and I’m a Michigan fan, so nobody is pulling for him more than me at this point, but the hype train is getting a little out of hand at this point for someone with 713 pass attempts in college. Considering classmates Bo Nix and Sam Hartman are knocking on the door of 2000 attempts, I have some concerns. Obviously, combine performances, pro day numbers, and draft capital will impact everything, but I’m not comfortable with McCarthy this early at this stage in the process.
People love Brock Bowers, and I get it, especially after seeing last year’s rookie tight ends have a great start to their careers. Still, I’m usually hesitant to draft highly touted tight end prospects only because there is often tremendous value at the position outside of the first round. I had the eighth pick and was thrilled to land Rome Odunze there. With multiple middle-firsts this year, I’ll be happy if I end up with a disproportionate share of Odunze on my roster. Truth be told, The mid-to-late first round looks like a great spot to be in this year- as it does most years. If you could trade out of the top three and get two later firsts, it could be a great year to do it. I’d easily give up Maye for McCarthy, Odunze, and, let’s say, a late third.
The final four picks of this round got a little wonky to me. Brian Thomas Jr at 1.11 is fine, and I’m sure he could go as early as 1.07 in WR needy drafts. Jonathan Brooks will probably squeak into the late first on occasion but will probably be an early second most of the time. However, I rubbed my eyes several times, seeing Blake Corum as the RB1 at pick 1.09 and Ladd McConkey as WR4 at 1.10. Again, as a Michigan fan, I want Corum to succeed. If he went to the Chargers in the second round of the NFL draft, I could be talked into him being the RB1 if the other top players get lesser landing spots or draft capital, but there is no world where I’m comfortable with that pre-combine. I also like McConkey, but not this early at this point in the process. However, if he’s a guy you want to plant your flag on, he’s probably not going to be there when you’re picking again at 2.10, so you would be forced into over-drafting him a bit if you want him.
Single QB Rookie Mock
Now, with these pesky quarterbacks out of the way, let’s look at how things shake out in single-QB leagues. Harrison Jr is locked in everywhere as the 1.01; nothing will change that short of a limb getting amputated, and even then, he might still go 2.01. Nabers looks to be locked into that 1.02 spot as well, so the draft actually begins at 1.03 in most leagues.
It’s a wide receiver world, and we’re all just living in it. Seven of the 12 first-round selections were wide receivers. Odunze at 1.03 will be common, while Thomas Jr at 1.04 and Bowers at 1.05 will be seen often too. Troy Franklin has many fans, and 1.07 isn’t out of line with current rankings. If anything, many might see him as a value that late. Keon Coleman is going to be polarizing, with the upside to potentially be better than anyone in the class and the floor to work the mid-shift at a local Denny’s in 2026. If you’re swinging for the fences, I don’t hate the 1.08 but brace yourself for the potential downside. If I’m drafting Coleman early, I’m trading for every fourth-round pick I can get to buffer my taxi squad with dart throws to offset any awfulness my wasted first-round pick might bring. The final receiver selected was Adonai Mitchell, who seems to be one of the early risers this year.
With the quarterbacks getting knocked down, we get a little more running back exposure in these single-quarterback drafts. Trey Benson was first off the board at 1.09, and Braelon Allen was second to close out the round at 1.12. The lack of depth at the position for fantasy often sees running backs get the most significant bump in rookie drafts, and I suspect most drafts closer to the NFL season will see three or maybe even four running backs get into the first round. The depth at receiver this year will encourage dynasty managers to pass on an Adonai Mitchell for, let’s say, Jonathan Brooks now and Ja’Lynn Polk in the second as opposed to Mitchell now and Bucky Irving in the second. When you break down your roster construction, Brooks/Polk is a much better duo than Mitchell/Irving.
As always, even though it’s not a superflex draft, we’ll often see a QB or two sneak into the first round. If you’ve got Sam Howell and Russell Wilson as your quarterbacks, I can’t hate your decision to bring in Caleb Williams in the mid-first. We also see Jayden Daniels go ahead of Drake Maye in this mock as well, proving Maye might not be as locked into the QB2 spot as many of us think.
Another Single QB Rookie Mock
Ho, hum, another Harrison/Nabers start with Caleb Williams in the middle of the round. We do see Bowers at 1.03 here, but even in tight end premium leagues, there is just no way I would ever sink that kind of capital into a tight end under any circumstances. There are so many fantasy-viable veterans you can obtain on the cheap each year- or even off waivers- that early rookie draft capital used on a tight end is never worth it to me. Jonnu Smith, Jake Ferguson, and Hunter Henry were all useful last season and were essentially free.
Looking at the receivers, my early feeling based on what I’m seeing is that it’s going to be very flavor of the month and personal preference after Odunze follows Harrison Jr and Nabers off the board. Franklin, Thomas Jr, Coleman, Michell, McConkey, Polk, and now Xavier Worthy will all be leapfrogging one another from draft to draft based on the draftees’ preferences. I suspect a more clear order will emerge following the combine, but it’s fun to see it vary from draft to draft now. I hope it continues, as it makes drafts a little more exciting when we have some variation. It can get boring some years when the ADP is locked in for months and very little changes from draft to draft.
Trey Benson was the RB1 once again in this mock, and then we closed out the round with the quarterback duo of Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. I was a little surprised to see three first-round quarterbacks in a single QB draft, especially with the quarterbacks in this year’s class.
Rookies in Dynasty Startups
Thus far, in my limited startup mocks (which have yet to get beyond the fourth round), only two rookies have been selected. As I’m sure you can guess, Marvin Harrison Jr is already a late first, going at 1.12, and Malik Nabers is a mid-second. It’s a single quarterback mock with only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen drafted, but it will be interesting to see where people slot in Caleb Williams, considering the hype surrounding him.
Now that mock drafts are in full swing, be sure to keep checking back here each week as this series keeps plugging along, looking at various mock results and tracking the risers and fallers during this process. This information is more valuable the earlier your league drafts, but just keeping up with the trends ahead of your league mates can give you a significant advantage in deciding on who you might want to pull the trigger on a little earlier in your drafts or who you might fade at their ADP. This knowledge is easily obtained by simply tracking trends in off-season mock drafts.
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: 1 QB Rookie Draft (Last Look Ahead) - April 19, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: NFL Mock Draft Compilation, Part Two - April 12, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Movers - April 5, 2025
