Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
Welcome to the ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ series where each week I’ll be focusing on one position to analyze four players and what we should be doing with them. This week we’re talking wide receivers and some really good ones at that.
Chris Olave, WR NO – Hold
The hopes for Olave heading into his second year were quite high and I think we’d all agree he didn’t quite live up to them. Olave improved his PPR points per game, going from 13.2 to 14.5 but we wanted/needed more. There are plenty of excuses to make if you want to. Olave battled injuries throughout the season, quarterback Derek Carr struggled for most of the year, and the team played poorly for the majority of the season. Some, myself included, had some concerns when Olave entered the NFL that he could be a consistent WR2 for fantasy but that he may struggle to ever be a WR1. Are those concerns or the excuses valid?
The Move – If you’re like me and still think Chris Olave is a seriously talented wide receiver with a bright future, you’ll be sad to find out that despite him not living up to those high hopes I spoke of, his value has not gone down and made him any easier to acquire. If you’ve already got him, just hold. You’ve got one of the best young wide receivers in the league. If you’re trying to find a time to buy, you’re going to have to wait. Maybe when rookie drafts get here you’ll be able to find a better price as your league mate becomes infatuated with the new toys.
Drake London, WR ATL – Buy
Is London our next Terry McLaurin? An obviously extremely talented wide receiver who may never escape being dragged down by bad quarterback play and offensive systems? Anybody who’s ever watched London play can recognize that he’s a star in the making who just can’t transcend his surroundings. Like Chris Olave, London did improve his PPR PPG from 2022 to 2023 going from 10.5 to 10.9 but obviously that isn’t the amount of improvement we were hoping for. But when you have Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke throwing you the ball while Arthur Smith is calling plays, the struggles are understandable. With the Falcons moving on from Smith, hopefully this team can make the improvements necessary to start having their playmakers, like London, flourish.
The Move – I firmly believe the moment London gets a competent quarterback and plays in an offensive system not stuck in the stone age, he’ll easily produce as a WR1. Through his first two years in the league, he has shown a lot of talent and anybody who’s watched him play will tell you his lack of production really isn’t on him. With Arthur Smith being fired, our dreams could come true. I want to buy London by tiering down to him. Try sending Tee Higgins, Deebo Samuel, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba for London with plus on top.
DK Metcalf, WR SEA – League Dependent
There was a lot of reason for optimism with Metcalf coming into the season after he showed an even greater target-earning ability in 2022 and the Seahawks’ passing offense looking like it could take another step forward as Geno Smith tried to build on his bounce-back season. But the offense regressed, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ate into everyone’s opportunities, and Metcalf failed to meet the expectations he set for us in 2020, his second year in the league, for the third straight year. Maybe our expectations were the problem though. After having a PPR PPG of 17 in 2020, in the last three years Metcalf has had PPG of 14.4, 13.3, and 14.1. It’s starting look like that 17 PPG is the outlier and expecting anything close was a mistake.
The Move – Metcalf can be a divisive player, evidenced by his ranking and startup ADP on DLF. He currently sits as WR13 in the rankings but is WR18 in the startup ADP. I have him as WR19 so if another manager is willing to pay you WR13 prices, I’m selling. Being able to trade Metcalf for Drake London, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, or DJ Moore while getting a bonus on top is a winning move. If the league values him at WR18, just hold him for now. The only way I’m trying to buy Metcalf currently is if he’s acquirable for a single mid to late first-round rookie pick or equivalent player value.
Davante Adams, WR LAR – League Dependent
What to make of Adams in 2023? Watching him play, I don’t think Adams has lost much in terms of play and his target-earning ability is still as strong as ever evidenced by his 175 targets which ranked second behind only CeeDee Lamb among all players. The fantasy points didn’t follow though as he only averaged 15.6 PPR PPG, his lowest since 2016. Now, 15.6 PPG is nothing to sneeze at, we’ll happily plug that into our lineups. But for Adams on that many targets, it’s a bit disappointing. It’s easy to point a finger at his quarterbacks. Jimmy Garoppolo played some of the worst football of his career before getting benched for Aidan O’Connell who despite playing better than Garoppolo, wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. So where does the truth lie?
The Move – Similar to DK Metcalf, Adams value has a wide range. As I write this Adams is WR22 in the DLF rankings and WR29 in Startup ADP. In my personal rankings, Adams sits as the WR27 but I know that I could be easily swayed in either direction depending on my team. Adams could still supply us with a couple more WR2 seasons but I don’t know if his value ever moves up again and is likely a player who expires on a competing roster. If you think you have a chance at competing it’s worth checking to see if Adam’s is acquirable for a late first-round rookie pick or less. If not, this may be your last chance to get anything of substance for him so find a trade partner while you can.
The dynasty landscape is rich with wide receiver talent. Being able to move and down through the ranking tiers, gaining little bits of value along the way, is a great way to improve your rosters during the off-season. Go out and get some value today.
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