Dynasty Trending Observations: Justin Fields and Head Coaching Changes
All dynasty leaguers would agree that the rookie draft is the highlight of the season. But the day after the NFL season ends could be a close second as new beginnings are underway. Draft positions are solidified, coaching changes are made, and the next season is underway. Below are several developments that will shape your dynasty off-season.
Fields of Dreams
I said some things to Justin Fields… pic.twitter.com/uyZ8Gycpl3
— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) January 5, 2024
As soon as the Panthers clinched the worst record in the NFL, the Chicago Bears were on the clock. Thanks to a disastrous trade (for Carolina), the Bears now own the first overall pick and will have their choice of players. And in any other year, a team picking first would pick a quarterback, assuming there was one worth of the top pick. 2023 is no different as there are as many as three quarterbacks that will be in that conversation.
Of course, this week’s discourse has surrounded the Bears’ decision as some say they already have a quarterback. Justin Fields has had an up-and-down season but the ups have been more frequent lately. Over the last month, coinciding with the fantasy playoffs, Fields has been a low-end QB1, scoring twice in three of his last four games while averaging nearly 60 rushing yards per game. Of course, the last month didn’t make up for the fact that Fields will finish as just a low-end QB2 when it comes to fantasy scoring. If anything, Fields represents a Rorschach test, and dynasty players will see what they want to see – either the top-ten fantasy quarterback or a barely startable player.
Dynasty Impact: Despite the hot streak to end the season, Fields’ dynasty value will be much lower than it was this time last year.
If the Bears choose to keep him, they will undoubtedly add even more pieces to surround him with. But his flaws have been exposed and inexperience is no longer an excuse. If the Bears choose to trade him, there will be several options that could be a good fit (Atlanta and Pittsburgh come to mind). But he’ll be on his second team and his third coach in four seasons. The jury is no longer out on Fields – we know what his ceiling is and it’s not as an elite quarterback, whether it’s real or fantasy leagues. You’re better off staying away from him or taking what you can get if you’re a current Fields manager.
Commander Recovery
Commanders part ways with head coach Ron Rivera. pic.twitter.com/UrkLyjI70X
— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2024
With the end of every NFL season comes big changes for several teams. The biggest facelift could be coming in Washington where a new owner is looking to clean house and put his stamp on things. This means Ron Rivera – Mr. .500 – is on his way out.
Rivera endured a lot off the field but on it, was no better than average, winning seven or eight games in each of his first three seasons in Washington before bottoming out this year. In fairness, he never had a quarterback who would be considered elite. He never had a quarterback who gave them a chance, as nine quarterbacks took snaps under center in Rivera’s four seasons as head coach.
But while there may not be a quarterback on the roster worth keeping, there are players at other positions who might – running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson and receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, all of whom have been decent fantasy contributors in the past.
Dynasty Impact: The last four seasons have seen a lot of fantasy potential come to Washington but none of it fulfilling it. Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin have seen top-15 fantasy finishes but those were few and far between. Brian Robinson and Jahan Dotson have been highly touted draft picks who have been in fantasy jail in Washington. All of this has led to the Washington skill position players not being ideal fantasy options.
They all sit outside the top 50 in terms of dynasty ADP. But a new coach and, more importantly, a new quarterback. Washington is well-positioned to draft one of the highly touted quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft. As for who stands to benefit the most, that answer would be in the passing game and, specifically, McLaurin. He’s been there before, showing flashes of being a WR1 in dynasty leagues, and would stand to gain from a competent quarterback. Dotson hasn’t proven anything yet and running backs, especially mediocre ones, are replaceable. If you plan on betting on any Commander going into 2024, it would be McLaurin.
ATL(ast)
When you have Drake London, Bijan Robinson, or Kyle Pitts in Dynasty…
And you find out Arthur Smith is gone. pic.twitter.com/VWx8QCU5TX
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) January 8, 2024
Finally, the reign of terror that Arthur Smith inflicted on the Falcons is over. His dismissal was met with universal acclaim from dynasty players and the hope that a new regime would maximize the crazy talent assembled on offense. Specifically, giving Bijan Robinson more than half the team carries and treating Kyle Pitts like the fourth overall pick he was. In short, Smith was bad for business when it came to dynasty leagues.
The early career struggles of Robinson, Pitts, and receiver Drake London are well documented. After each was drafted by Atlanta in the top ten of their respective drafts, none of them produced like it. Each showed flashes but because of their mind-boggling usage (or lack thereof), none of them ranked better than tenth in fantasy scoring at their respective positions and that was Pitts at the tight end position in his rookie year. To say they all have been a disappointment in dynasty leagues would be an understatement.
Dynasty Impact: The firing of Smith alone will represent an ‘addition by subtraction’ feeling. Surely, the next coach of the Falcons will recognize the talent on offense and use it more. However, be careful of paying too much for any Falcon this off-season.
Pitts is a low-end TE1 when it comes to fantasy scoring. And that’s ok! But don’t get fooled by a current Pitts dynasty manager trying to sell you on 2021 prices. For Drake London, he’s come close to a 1,000-yard campaign in each of his two professional seasons and has been serviceable. Has he been the receiver we thought he’d be after being drafted eighth overall two seasons ago? No. But could be a decent WR2 for your young, rebuilding dynasty team? Yes.
This brings us to the most interesting player of all – Bijan Robinson. Still regarded as a top dynasty option at running back – and rightfully so – he wasn’t used nearly enough to warrant ‘elite’ status. He had FOUR games where he saw more than 15 carries. Thankfully, he managed 58 receptions for 487 receiving yards to make up the difference but, overall, fell short of expectations. Do NOT treat him as an elite option for your dynasty team as you can’t trust any running back year-over-year. Yes, he’s an RB1 but not THE RB1.
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